Alcoa Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Alcoa's Q3 2026 results (quarter ended 30 Sep) confirm the operational turnaround — net income of $483M on revenue of $3.704B, up 23.7% YoY from $2.995B, delivered a 20.5% EPS beat after two consecutive quarterly misses, and FY2025 full-year results show $1.157B net income and $4.44 EPS versus just $60M and $0.28 in 2024.
The stock at $41.45 (as of 16 Oct) trades well below its 50-day ($46.91) and 200-day ($57.52) moving averages with RSI at 38.4, while its PS of 0.76 and EV/EBITDA of 4.68 sit at discounts of 41% and 7% to peer medians, suggesting the earnings recovery is not yet fully priced in. Persistent insider net selling (-50,795 shares over 24 months) and slightly negative smart money positioning (-0.03 as of 30 Jun) temper enthusiasm, but confirmed earnings momentum at a discounted valuation supports a buy.
What could go wrong
- Commodity price reversal. Q3 2026 results benefited from higher alumina prices; a reversal in aluminum or alumina pricing would compress margins that are only recently recovering (FY2025 gross margin 16.9% vs FY2023's 2.3%).
- Sequential deceleration. Q3 2026 revenue of $3.704B and operating income of $583M both declined from Q2 2026's $3.966B and $718M, raising the question of whether Q2 was a peak.
- Insider and smart-money divergence. Insiders net sold 50,795 shares over 24 months with zero acquisitions, and smart money score is -0.03 as of 30 Jun, suggesting institutional and insider sentiment has not turned positive.
- Elevated debt load. Total debt of $2.747B at FY2025 year-end, up from $1.971B in FY2023, constrains financial flexibility if commodity conditions deteriorate.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 2026 results · earnings vs estimates · earnings vs estimates, Q1–Q2 2026 · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on AA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 0.1% over twelve months, from $39.90 on 27 Oct 2025 to $39.93 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $83.79 on 2 Jun 2026; the last close is 52.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 17.0M, on 1 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| FMR | $886.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $677.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $621.8M | 0.0% |
| Eagle Capital Management | $619.4M | 1.9% |
| State Street | $567.1M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $304.1M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $213.1M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $187.1M | 0.0% |
| D. E. Shaw | $187.0M | 0.1% |
91 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 122 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AA
Orin answers questions about AA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 6.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 6.8× | — | 22.4× |
| P/S | 0.74×above usual | 0.66× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.3×below usual | 1.6× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 11.9× to 135× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 5.4× to 45.7× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $60.43 (from $53 to $70) — 51% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$60.43
$53 – $70 · +51% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 6.8× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (CENX 3.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAAlcoa Corporation | $11B | 6.8× | 4.5× | 21.9% | 10.7% | 21% |
| CENXCentury Aluminum Company | $3B | 3.3× | 2.8× | 24.7% | 29.7% | 70% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 6.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now6.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $15 a share — 62% below the $39.59 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $15 | 62% below $39.59 |
| Levered | $4 | 89% below $39.59 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.