AbbVie Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
AbbVie's revenue growth is accelerating — Q2 2026 revenue of $16.99B grew 10.2% YoY and FY2025 operating margin recovered to 32.9% from 16.2% in FY2024 — but the stock at $276.47 trades at 77.89x trailing earnings, a 130% premium to the 33.80 peer median, while FY2025 net margin remains compressed at 6.9% with EPS of just $2.37.
The pipeline offers genuine upside (Temab-A received two FDA Breakthrough Therapy designations on October 8, 2026), and Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target the following day, yet the balance sheet carries $69.07B in debt against negative $3.27B stockholders' equity, and insiders are net sellers with zero open-market acquisitions over 24 months. With RSI at 71.23 and the price extended well above both the 50-day ($258.89) and 200-day ($232.65) moving averages, the momentum is strong but the valuation cushion is too thin to justify adding at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 77.89x PE — 130% above the 33.80 peer median — any disappointment in earnings recovery could trigger a sharp de-rating, especially with RSI at 71.23 signaling overbought conditions.
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $69.07B against negative stockholders' equity of $3.27B as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk if rates remain elevated.
- Earnings quality. FY2025 net income of $4.23B is flat versus FY2024's $4.28B and well below FY2022's $11.84B, with net margin at just 6.9% despite a 32.9% operating margin, suggesting significant below-the-line charges are eroding profitability.
- Insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 134,654 shares worth $29.97M with zero open-market acquisitions, and the EVP of Business Strategy exercised options at $79.02 and sold shares at $250.00 in August 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on ABBV; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 25.6% over twelve months, from $228.03 on 27 Oct 2025 to $286.44 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $289.08 on 20 Oct 2026; the last close is 0.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 52.6M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ABBV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $37.6B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $29.0B | 0.6% |
| State Street | $20.8B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $12.2B | 0.5% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $12.2B | 0.7% |
| Geode Capital Management | $11.8B | 0.6% |
| Morgan Stanley | $9.8B | 0.5% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $7.6B | 1.1% |
| Norges Bank | $6.4B | 0.6% |
| Bank of America | $5.3B | 0.3% |
177 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 112 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$30.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ABBV
Orin answers questions about ABBV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 80.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 56.8×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 80.7×above usual | 56.8× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 7.86×above usual | 5.04× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.9×above usual | 18.7× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 15.6× to 94.5× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $294 (from $235 to $325) — 3% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$294
$235 – $325 · +3% against the last close
- 21 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 80.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 40.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | $506B | 80.7× | 26.9× | 71.5% | 9.8% | n/m |
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | $242B | 27.6× | 16.2× | 72.7% | 22.9% | 89% |
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | $126B | 13.6× | 9.5× | 70.2% | 18.9% | 47% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | $647B | 40.7× | 21.9× | 68.8% | 16.2% | 20% |
| LLYEli Lilly and Company | $1.21T | 42.9× | 28.9× | 83.4% | 33.5% | 93% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $350B | 113× | 28.5× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $170B | 39.4× | 17.2× | 73.2% | 6.8% | 5% |
- ABBV: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 80.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now80.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $125 a share — 56% below the $286.90 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $125 | 56% below $286.90 |
| Levered | $165 | 42% below $286.90 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.