AbbVie Inc. ABBV
AbbVie's operating recovery is real — FY2025 revenue grew 8.57% to $61.16B with operating margin expanding to 32.85% from 16.22% in FY2024, and the neuroscience franchise is emerging as a credible second growth engine alongside immunology. However, at $258.92 the stock trades at 72.95x trailing EPS versus a 28.78x peer median (a 153% premium), net income remains depressed at $4.23B with EPS of just $2.37, and the balance sheet carries $69.07B in debt against negative $3.27B in stockholders' equity.
Smart money turned positive at 0.3378 as of Q2 2026 from -0.0737 in Q1 2026, and price momentum is strong above both the 50-day ($245.60) and 200-day ($225.89) moving averages, but the valuation cushion for error is thin and existing positions should be maintained rather than added at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium unsustainable. PE of 72.95 is 153% above the peer median of 28.78; any disappointment in neuroscience or immunology growth could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Balance sheet stress. Total debt of $69.07B against negative stockholders' equity of -$3.27B limits financial flexibility and raises cost-of-capital risk.
- Depressed earnings quality. EPS of $2.37 in FY2025 is down from $6.63 in FY2022; net margin of 6.91% is far below the 20.39% level seen in FY2022, suggesting one-time charges or acquisition-related dilution masking underlying profitability.
- Insider selling pattern. Over 24 months, net insider dollar value is -$9.3M despite net share accumulation of +295,517, driven by option exercises at low cost basis followed by sales at market — typical but not a bullish signal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · smart_money 13F composite as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on ABBV; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ABBV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $29.0B | 0.6% of fund |
| State Street | $20.8B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $12.2B | 0.5% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $12.2B | 0.7% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $11.8B | 0.6% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $9.8B | 0.5% of fund |
174 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 110 Form 4 filings, net −$9.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ABBV
Orin answers questions about ABBV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 74.7× | 56.3× | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.1× | 18.7× | — |
| P/S | 7.28× | 5.04× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.71σ from its own mean).
11.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $17.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$287
$235 – $315 · +8% against today's price
- 31 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | $469B | 74.7× | 25.1× | 71.5% | 9.8% | -136% |
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | $219B | 25.0× | 15.9× | 72.7% | 22.9% | 89% |
| GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | $188B | — | 331.4× | 79.6% | -10.6% | -16% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | $649B | 31.1× | 20.1× | 67.9% | 21.5% | 26% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $366B | 117.5× | 29.8× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $161B | 37.2× | 17.6× | 71.3% | 6.8% | 5% |
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $337B | 23.9× | 14.8× | 22.5% | 3.1% | 15% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 140.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $137 | $225.93 · −39% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $181 | $225.93 · −20% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.