Orin
ABBVNYSE·Drug Manufacturers - General

AbbVie Inc. ABBV

Market cap $469.3BP/E 74.7× trailingGross margin 71.5%Reports Fri 30 Oct, before the open
$265.30
+0.09 (+0.03%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $190.75 – $269.39
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v9. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

AbbVie's operating recovery is real — FY2025 revenue grew 8.57% to $61.16B with operating margin expanding to 32.85% from 16.22% in FY2024, and the neuroscience franchise is emerging as a credible second growth engine alongside immunology. However, at $258.92 the stock trades at 72.95x trailing EPS versus a 28.78x peer median (a 153% premium), net income remains depressed at $4.23B with EPS of just $2.37, and the balance sheet carries $69.07B in debt against negative $3.27B in stockholders' equity.

Smart money turned positive at 0.3378 as of Q2 2026 from -0.0737 in Q1 2026, and price momentum is strong above both the 50-day ($245.60) and 200-day ($225.89) moving averages, but the valuation cushion for error is thin and existing positions should be maintained rather than added at these levels.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation premium unsustainable. PE of 72.95 is 153% above the peer median of 28.78; any disappointment in neuroscience or immunology growth could trigger a sharp de-rating.
  • Balance sheet stress. Total debt of $69.07B against negative stockholders' equity of -$3.27B limits financial flexibility and raises cost-of-capital risk.
  • Depressed earnings quality. EPS of $2.37 in FY2025 is down from $6.63 in FY2022; net margin of 6.91% is far below the 20.39% level seen in FY2022, suggesting one-time charges or acquisition-related dilution masking underlying profitability.
  • Insider selling pattern. Over 24 months, net insider dollar value is -$9.3M despite net share accumulation of +295,517, driven by option exercises at low cost basis followed by sales at market — typical but not a bullish signal.

What would change my mind

EPS inflection confirmed. FY2026 EPS guidance raised or quarterly EPS exceeds $3.00, indicating the operating leverage is flowing through to bottom-linebullish
Neuroscience franchise acceleration. Tavapadon approval and launch or neuroscience segment revenue exceeds $12.7B annualized, validating the second growth engine thesisbullish
Valuation reset or de-rating. PE compresses toward 40x or peer median without corresponding EPS improvement, indicating the market is repricing growth expectations downwardbearish
Debt or credit deterioration. Credit rating downgrade or total debt increases beyond $69B without proportional revenue growth, worsening the negative-equity situationbearish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · smart_money 13F composite as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on ABBV; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

FormFiledWhat it saysRead
8-K3 SepAbbVie Inc. completed its acquisition of Apogee Therapeutics, Inc. on September 3, 2026, for approximately $10.9 billion, or $135.11 per share in cash. This acquisition adds…read
8-K18 AugAbbVie Inc. completed an underwritten public offering of $7.75 billion in aggregate principal amount of senior notes. The offering included $500 million in floating rate notes due…read
8-K5 AugAbbVie Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement on August 4, 2026, to issue and sell $9.93 billion in aggregate principal amount of senior notes. The offering includes $500…read
10-Q3 AugAbbVie Inc. reported net revenues of $16.99 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 10.2% year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share were $2.03, up from…read
8-K31 JulAbbVie reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $3.65, a 22.9% increase year-over-year, and net revenues of $16.990 billion, up 10.2%.read
8-K6 JulAbbVie expects second quarter 2026 GAAP and adjusted non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to include $291 million of acquired IPR&D and milestones expense, negatively impacting EPS by $0.17.read
8-K22 JunAbbVie Inc. announced on June 22, 2026, a definitive agreement to acquire Apogee Therapeutics, Inc. The transaction is expected to be accretive to AbbVie's adjusted diluted…read
8-K12 MayAbbVie’s 2026 annual meeting on May 8 re-elected all four Class II directors with 1.22-1.28 billion votes each, ratified Ernst & Young as auditor (1.52 billion for), and secured…read

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$29.0B0.6% of fund
State Street$20.8B0.6% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$12.2B0.5% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &$12.2B0.7% of fund
Geode Capital Management$11.8B0.6% of fund
Morgan Stanley$9.8B0.5% of fund

174 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 110 Form 4 filings, net −$9.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Healthcare
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E74.7×56.3×26.4×
EV/EBITDA25.1×18.7×
P/S7.28×5.04×

Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.71σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

11.4%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $17.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

43 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$287

$235$315 · +8% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 31 buy or overweight
  • 11 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 31.1× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
ABBVAbbVie Inc.$469B74.7×25.1×71.5%9.8%-136%
AMGNAmgen Inc.$219B25.0×15.9×72.7%22.9%89%
GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.$188B331.4×79.6%-10.6%-16%
JNJJohnson & Johnson$649B31.1×20.1×67.9%21.5%26%
MRKMerck & Co., Inc.$366B117.5×29.8×75.4%4.8%7%
PFEPfizer Inc.$161B37.2×17.6×71.3%6.8%5%
UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated$337B23.9×14.8×22.5%3.1%15%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 140.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 59.0×FY25 96.4×

What its sector has traded at

Healthcare
FY14 6.5×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$137$225.93 · −39%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$181$225.93 · −20%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $265.30
52-week range$191 – $269
Analyst targets$235 – $315
Standard DCF$137 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $225.93
Levered DCF$181 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $225.93
At own 5y-median P/E (56×)$200
At 5y P/E range (21–96×)$74 – $342
At sector P/E (26×)$94

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.