Airbnb, Inc. ABNB
Airbnb is a hold at $190.50 as of 2026-08-25. The stock has surged roughly 25% in the past month on AI-integration narrative and guidance momentum, pushing RSI to 73.6 and the price 39% above its 200-day MA of $136.85 — an extreme technical stretch that limits near-term upside.
Fundamentals are mixed: FY2025 revenue grew 10.3% to $12.24B with a best-in-class 38.0% FCF margin and zero capex, but operating margin compressed from 23.0% to 20.8% and diluted EPS declined from $4.11 to $4.03, making the 43.0x P/E (30% above peer median) and 8.6x P/S (157% above peer median) difficult to justify on current earnings trajectory. Persistent insider distribution — $1.41B net selling over 24 months with the CSO and CFO selling in mid-August 2026 — reinforces caution, though smart money turned modestly positive at 0.1337 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 43.0x P/E and 8.6x P/S — 30% and 157% above peer medians respectively — any disappointment in growth or margin trajectory could trigger a sharp de-rating, especially with EPS already declining YoY from $4.11 to $4.03.
- Margin deterioration. FY2025 operating margin fell to 20.8% from 23.0% in FY2024 while operating income was essentially flat at $2.54B versus $2.55B, signaling that revenue growth is not translating to operating leverage.
- Insider selling persistence. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders disposed of 39.7M net shares worth $1.41B, with the CSO, CFO, and CAO all selling in August 2026 — no cluster buying has occurred.
- Technical overextension. RSI of 73.6 and a price 22% above the 50-day MA ($155.95) and 39% above the 200-day MA ($136.85) leave the stock vulnerable to a mean-reversion pullback.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 · peer_relative composite, as of 2026-08-25 · technicals, as of 2026-08-25. Orin's read on ABNB; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ABNB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Harris Associates L P | $2.7B | 3.6% of fund |
| State Street | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $2.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.5% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
113 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 561 Form 4 filings, net −$1.5B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 23 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ABNB
Orin answers questions about ABNB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 34.3× | — | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.4× | 30.9× | — |
| P/S | 6.82× | 7.48× | — |
| P/B | 11.5× | 10.1× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+0.55σ from its own mean).
7.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$181
$125 – $220 · +17% against today's price
- 23 buy or overweight
- 19 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | $90B | 34.3× | 28.4× | 78.0% | 20.4% | 33% |
| CVNACarvana Co. | $70B | 22.2× | — | 19.4% | 6.3% | 47% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $73B | 40.3× | 13.7× | 5.7% | 1.0% | 3% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $70B | 45.4× | 26.9× | 44.1% | 12.7% | -28% |
| MARMarriott International, Inc. | $92B | 36.6× | 23.1× | 20.2% | 9.6% | -67% |
| NKENIKE, Inc. | $53B | 17.1× | 12.1× | 42.9% | 6.7% | 22% |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $71B | 27.2× | 20.0× | 51.6% | 14.3% | -232% |
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $64B | 14.7× | 12.0× | 46.6% | 23.6% | 44% |
| SBUXStarbucks Corporation | $107B | 53.8× | 21.4× | 31.7% | 5.2% | -24% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 7.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $118 | $129.09 · −8% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $147 | $129.09 · +14% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.