Airbnb, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Hold at $173.70 as of 16 Oct.
Revenue growth is accelerating — Q2 2026 revenue rose 16.5% YoY to $3.608B with an 8.7% EPS beat — and the stock has reclaimed its 50-day MA with a bullish MACD histogram of 1.92, but FY2025 gross margin compressed to 72.3% from 83.1% and EPS declined 2.0% YoY, making the 39.3x P/E (34.5% above the peer median of 29.2x) difficult to justify without margin recovery. Persistent insider distribution — $1.555B net selling over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions — and a smart money score that turned slightly negative at -0.00 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun reinforce caution at these elevated levels.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 gross margin fell to 72.3% from 83.1% in FY2024 while operating margin slipped to 21.2% from 23.0%; if this trend continues into 2026, the premium valuation becomes harder to defend.
- Valuation premium vs peers. P/S of 7.89x is 94.6% above the peer median of 4.05x and EV/EBITDA of 33.1x is 87.6% above the 17.6x median, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Relentless insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders disposed of 11.05M shares for $1.555B net with zero acquisitions; the most recent transactions on 12 Oct show the Chief Strategy Officer selling Class A shares at $163–167.
- AI disintermediation threat. Recent WSJ and Seeking Alpha coverage highlights agentic AI as a structural risk to OTA platforms; while ABNB may be relatively insulated, any acceleration of AI-driven booking substitution could pressure the thesis.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results and earnings vs estimates · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on ABNB; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 30.8% over twelve months, from $129.07 on 27 Oct 2025 to $168.82 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $190.50 on 25 Aug 2026; the last close is 11.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 15.9M, on 7 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ABNB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.8B | 0.1% |
| Harris Associates | $2.7B | 3.6% |
| State Street | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $2.3B | 0.2% |
| AQR Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.5% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $960.8M | 0.0% |
116 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 579 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.6B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 29 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ABNB
Orin answers questions about ABNB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 31.4× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 3 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 30.1×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NASDAQ is at 82.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 31.4×near usual | 30.1× | 82.5× |
| P/S | 7.30×near usual | 7.48× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.4× | — | — |
| P/B | 10.8×above usual | 10.1× | — |
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 23.1× to 358× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $184 (from $125 to $220) — 9% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$184
$125 – $220 · +9% against the last close
- 21 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 31.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 28.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | $102B | 31.4× | 29.4× | 78.5% | 23.0% | 39% |
| BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. | $113B | 16.6× | 10.8× | 100.0% | 25.5% | n/m |
| EXPEExpedia Group, Inc. | $31B | 15.6× | 7.8× | 90.5% | 13.0% | 179% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $78B | 46.1× | 24.6× | 44.6% | 13.4% | n/m |
| MARMarriott International, Inc. | $102B | 40.6× | 23.7× | 20.2% | 9.6% | n/m |
- BKNG, HLT, MAR: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 31.4× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now31.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 82.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now82.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $112 a share — 34% below the $168.56 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $112 | 34% below $168.56 |
| Levered | $128 | 24% below $168.56 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.