Orin
ABTNYSE·Medical - Devices

Abbott Laboratories ABT

Market cap $179.1BP/E 33.3× trailingGross margin 56.8%Reports Wed 21 Oct, before the open
$103.51
+0.02 (+0.02%)live 09:30 ET
52-wk $81.97 – $135.45
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 1 Sep · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Abbott's FY2025 fundamentals show genuine operational improvement — revenue of $44.3B grew 5.67% YoY, gross margin expanded to 55.5%, operating margin reached 18.2%, and free cash flow hit $7.4B — but the 51.3% YoY EPS decline to $3.72 (against FY2024's elevated $7.64) clouds the normalized earnings picture. The stock has cooled from prior overbought conditions (RSI now 52.9 versus the prior verdict's 72.8) and trades at a P/S of 4.1x and EV/EBITDA of 22.0x, both below the peer median, yet the P/E of 35.5x remains at a ~22% premium.

Recent FDA and CE Mark regulatory wins in diabetes and structural heart add credible growth catalysts, but with smart money still slightly negative (-0.05 as of Q2 2026) and the EPS reset fresh, patience is warranted until the earnings trajectory clarifies.

What could go wrong

  • EPS normalization uncertainty. FY2024 net income of $13.4B on $6.8B operating income versus FY2025's $6.5B on $8.0B suggests a one-time gain inflated the prior base; the market may still be repricing to the lower normalized figure.
  • Valuation premium. P/E of 35.5x sits ~22% above the peer median of 29.1x, limiting margin of safety even as P/S and EV/EBITDA come in below median.
  • Insider selling signals. CEO Robert Ford exercised options and sold shares on 2026-08-25 at ~$116, netting zero incremental common stock; while routine, it provides no incremental insider conviction at current levels.
  • Smart money positioning. Smart money score of -0.046 as of Q2 2026, while improving from -0.092 in Q4 2025, remains in negative territory across 66 funds.

What would change my mind

Sustained margin expansion. Two consecutive quarters of operating margin above 18.5% with revenue growth above 6% YoY would confirm the FY2025 improvement is structural, not cyclical.bullish
FDA diabetes commercial traction. Quantified U.S. launch metrics for the FDA-approved diabetes product (prescription volume, revenue contribution) demonstrating market share capture.bullish
Further EPS deterioration. Next two quarters show EPS declining further or operating margin reverting below 17%, indicating FY2025 margin gains are unsustainable.bearish
P/E de-rating. P/E compresses toward the peer median of 29.1x without an offsetting acceleration in revenue or margin growth.bearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP FY2025 · FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics. Orin's read on ABT; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$10.3B0.2% of fund
State Street$7.3B0.2% of fund
Charles Schwab Investment Management$5.4B0.7% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$4.4B0.2% of fund
Geode Capital Management$3.5B0.2% of fund
Capital Research Global Investors$3.3B0.5% of fund

158 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 117 Form 4 filings, net $66.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 10 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Healthcare
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E33.3×33.4×26.4×
EV/EBITDA20.8×18.8×
P/S3.85×4.76×
P/B3.5×4.9×

Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.58σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

10.3%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $7.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

41 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$122

$92$143 · +17% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 32 buy or overweight
  • 9 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 28.1× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
ABTAbbott Laboratories$179B33.3×20.8×56.8%11.6%11%
BSXBoston Scientific Corporation$66B18.0×13.8×71.2%17.5%15%
GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.$188B331.4×79.6%-10.6%-16%
ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc.$141B45.0×30.6×66.7%28.4%18%
MDTMedtronic plc$114B21.8×14.9×66.7%13.9%11%
MRKMerck & Co., Inc.$366B117.5×29.8×75.4%4.8%7%
SYKStryker Corporation$105B28.1×18.6×65.2%14.4%16%
TMOThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.$246B35.7×26.0×41.0%15.1%13%
UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated$337B23.9×14.8×22.5%3.1%15%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 18.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 29.8×FY25 33.5×

What its sector has traded at

Healthcare
FY14 6.5×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$149$89.08 · +67%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$127$89.08 · +43%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $103.51
52-week range$82 – $137
Analyst targets$92 – $143
Standard DCF$149 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $89.08
Levered DCF$127 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $89.08
At own 5y-median P/E (33×)$104
At 5y P/E range (15–35×)$45 – $110
At sector P/E (26×)$82

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.