Analog Devices, Inc. ADI
ADI's FY2025 recovery is genuine — revenue grew 16.9% to $11.0B and EPS surged 39% to $4.56 — but both remain below the FY2023 peak of $12.3B revenue and $6.55 EPS, and at 44.5x trailing PE the market is pricing in a full cyclical return to peak profitability that has not yet materialized. Smart money is turning more constructive (score 0.2252 as of Q2 2026, up from negative readings in late 2024) and the stock trades at a 28.9% PE discount to the peer median of 62.6x, but persistent insider selling — $106.7M net over 24 months across 282 dispositions — and an imminent earnings report on Aug 19 argue for patience.
Hold until Q3 FY2026 results clarify whether AI-driven communications and industrial demand can close the gap to peak margins.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression on disappointing guidance. At 44.5x trailing PE, any shortfall in Q3 FY2026 results or forward guidance could trigger a sharp de-rating, especially with the stock already below its 50-day MA of $390.30.
- Insider selling acceleration. Net insider dispositions of $106.7M over 24 months with 282 sales versus 58 acquisitions signal that insiders see limited upside at current levels.
- Cyclical recovery stalls below peak. FY2025 revenue of $11.0B and gross margin of 61.5% remain below FY2023 levels of $12.3B and 64.0%, respectively; if industrial demand plateaus, the gap to peak may not close.
- Competitive pressure in industrial segment. Recent news highlights competitive pressure testing ADI's industrial growth momentum, which is a key driver of the recovery thesis.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2023; derived_metrics FY2023 · peer_relative ADI row and peer_median_pe · smart_money points 2026-06-30 and 2024-12-31. Orin's read on ADI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ADI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $12.7B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $9.4B | 0.3% of fund |
| Brasada Capital Management | $7.2B | 1.3% of fund |
| Invesco | $6.8B | 0.5% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $6.6B | 0.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.8B | 0.3% of fund |
136 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 365 Form 4 filings, net −$116.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 39 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ADI
Orin answers questions about ADI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 45.5× | 49.6× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.8× | 24.2× | — |
| P/S | 13.52× | 9.42× | — |
| P/B | 5.6× | 2.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.08σ from its own mean).
18.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$480
$405 – $675 · +26% against today's price
- 45 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $188B | 45.5× | 29.8× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc. | $85B | 61.1× | 39.5× | 88.5% | 23.6% | 23% |
| DELLDell Technologies Inc. | $365B | 31.4× | 21.1× | 19.8% | 7.5% | -575% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $245B | 51.0× | 43.4× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $67B | 82.7× | 64.8× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc. | $228B | 85.6× | 48.3× | 51.4% | 27.9% | 16% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $59B | 20.0× | 13.7× | 55.9% | 22.6% | 28% |
| SNPSSynopsys, Inc. | $79B | 71.7× | 24.4× | 72.4% | 11.4% | 4% |
| STMSTMicroelectronics N.V. | $47B | 99.8× | 20.8× | 34.3% | 3.5% | 3% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $249B | 41.2× | 28.5× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 25.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $199 | $393.71 · −49% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $203 | $393.71 · −48% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.