Archer-Daniels-Midland Company ADM
ADM's earnings inflection thesis is playing out — the company raised its 2026 EPS outlook on biofuel strength and improving Nutrition performance, smart money flows turned positive (score 0.046 as of 2026-06-30, up from -0.0072 in Q4 2025), and the stock has rallied above both its 50-day ($80.02) and 200-day ($70.61) moving averages to $82.45. However, with FY2025 EPS still depressed at $2.23 (down 38.9% YoY) and operating margin at just 1.77%, the trailing P/E of 22.59 now sits slightly above the peer median of 21.91, meaning much of the recovery is already discounted.
The dramatic FCF improvement to $4.2B and $1.8B debt reduction in FY2025 are genuine positives, but the stock needs to prove the earnings rebound sustains before justifying a more aggressive stance.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 operating margin of 1.77% and gross margin of 6.27% are well below FY2022 levels of 4.15% and 7.45% respectively; if biofuel margins reverse, the recovery stalls.
- Valuation catch-up after rally. Stock has surged roughly 20% in six months to $82.45; trailing P/E of 22.59 now exceeds peer median of 21.91, limiting upside if earnings disappoint.
- Insider net selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 353,147 shares worth $54.9M, including CFO Patolawala's August 2026 disposition of 6,720 shares at $79.27.
- Revenue decline continues. Revenue has fallen for three consecutive years — from $101.6B in 2022 to $80.3B in 2025 — a 6.15% decline in FY2025 alone, raising structural demand questions.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP FY2025 and FY2024 fundamentals · peer_relative. Orin's read on ADM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ADM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $1.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $1.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
93 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 204 Form 4 filings, net −$55.0M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ADM
Orin answers questions about ADM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.4× | 13.4× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9× | 9.2× | — |
| P/S | 0.48× | 0.42× | — |
| P/B | 1.7× | 1.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.33σ from its own mean).
-2.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$88
$79 – $95 · +8% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company | $39B | 22.4× | 8.9× | 6.9% | 2.2% | 8% |
| BGBunge Global S.A. | $21B | 21.4× | 14.9× | 4.9% | 1.1% | 6% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $23B | 30.6× | 20.3× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| GISGeneral Mills, Inc. | $19B | — | 10.5× | 33.4% | -4.9% | -11% |
| HSYThe Hershey Company | $34B | 22.6× | 14.8× | 38.1% | 12.2% | 32% |
| KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company | $28B | — | — | 32.8% | -13.6% | -8% |
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $32B | 16.5× | 12.4× | 36.7% | 11.8% | 123% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | $34B | 20.2× | 13.0× | 58.2% | 10.8% | 16% |
| TSNTyson Foods, Inc. | $18B | 30.6× | 9.8× | 6.2% | 1.0% | 3% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 1.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $64 | $82.25 · −22% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $96 | $82.25 · +16% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.