Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
ADM's earnings inflection is confirmed: H1 2026 EPS of $2.49 ($0.62 in Q1 plus $1.87 in Q2) already exceeds FY2025's full-year diluted EPS of $2.23, with Q2 2026 revenue growing 7.1% YoY to $22.68B and EPS beating estimates by 23.5%.
The stock trades at an EV/EBITDA of 9.96, a 16.8% discount to the peer median of 11.97, while FY2025 free cash flow of $4.2B and total debt reduction from $11.54B to $9.76B underscore balance-sheet repair. Despite near-term technical weakness with the stock below its 50-day MA at $81.79, the cyclical earnings recovery, consistent estimate beats, and discounted EV/EBITDA support accumulation.
What could go wrong
- Commodity cycle reversal. ADM's operating margin compressed from 4.3% in FY2023 to 1.8% in FY2025; a renewed downturn in ag commodity prices or crush spreads could stall the earnings recovery visible in H1 2026.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $79.89 sits below its 50-day MA of $81.79 with RSI at 42.4 and negative MACD histogram, suggesting near-term momentum has not yet turned constructive.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 136,606 shares for $9.63M; recent October 2026 transactions are small stock-unit grants, not open-market purchases.
- Valuation premium on P/E. ADM's P/E of 21.89 is a 9.7% premium to the peer median of 19.95, limiting multiple expansion if earnings momentum disappoints.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results and fundamentals · quarterly results · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison. Orin's read on ADM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 26.3% over twelve months, from $61.94 on 27 Oct 2025 to $78.20 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $88.09 on 17 Sep 2026; the last close is 11.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 16.7M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ADM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.4B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.4B | 0.2% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $1.3B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Northern Trust | $875.1M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $537.2M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $521.1M | 0.1% |
95 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 216 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$9.6M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ADM
Orin answers questions about ADM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 13.8×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.4×above usual | 13.8× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 0.46×above usual | 0.42× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.7×above usual | 9.2× | — |
| P/B | 1.6×near usual | 1.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $84.75 (from $75 to $95) — 8% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$84.75
$75 – $95 · +8% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.4× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (BG 19.5×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Company | $38B | 21.4× | 9.7× | 6.9% | 2.2% | 8% |
| BGBunge Global S.A. | $19B | 19.5× | 11.5× | 4.9% | 1.1% | 6% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $71 a share — 9% below the $78.30 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $71 | 9% below $78.30 |
| Levered | $85 | 9% above $78.30 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.