Autodesk, Inc. ADSK
Autodesk reported Q2 FY2027 revenue growth of 16% and EPS of $3.30 beating the $3.12 consensus, yet the stock pulled back on soft Q3 profit guidance — creating an entry point at $260.66 with RSI cooled to ~61 and valuation at 33.6x P/E, a 32.6% discount to the software peer median of 49.8x. FY2026 fundamentals underpin the case: revenue of $7.2B growing 17.5% YoY, a 24.9% operating margin, and $2.4B in free cash flow (33.4% FCF margin).
The June 2026 insider cluster buy by three executives at ~$189/share and the raised full-year billings/revenue outlook post-MaintainX acquisition reinforce confidence that the profit-guidance softness reflects investment spending rather than demand deterioration.
What could go wrong
- AI disruption. Reuters flagged investor worry over potential disruption from AI tools on Autodesk's software business, contributing to the post-earnings share decline.
- Profit guidance shortfall. Q3 FY2027 adjusted profit guidance came in below Wall Street estimates despite the revenue beat, signaling margin pressure or elevated investment costs.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score is -0.0295 as of Q2 2026 with fund count declining from 67 to 62 quarter-over-quarter, indicating institutional caution.
- Net insider selling over 24 months. Despite the June cluster buy, net insider value over 24 months is -$34.4M across 81 transactions, with dispositions outnumbering open-market purchases.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: GuruFocus earnings call highlights; Zacks Q2 earnings report (2026-08-27/28) · Reuters (2026-08-27) · FMP fundamentals FY2026; derived_metrics FY2026 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on ADSK; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ADSK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $980.7M | 0.1% of fund |
93 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 81 Form 4 filings, net −$34.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 8 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ADSK
Orin answers questions about ADSK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.0× | 60.2× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.7× | 43.8× | — |
| P/S | 5.89× | 9.97× | — |
| P/B | 13.5× | 29.6× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.77σ from its own mean).
7.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$303
$215 – $341 · +40% against today's price
- 39 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADSKAutodesk, Inc. | $46B | 28.0× | 19.7× | 91.2% | 21.1% | 53% |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc. | $85B | 61.1× | 39.5× | 88.5% | 23.6% | 23% |
| CRWVCoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock | $47B | — | 36.3× | 67.4% | -25.4% | -45% |
| DDOGDatadog, Inc. | $90B | — | 343.2× | 79.5% | 4.5% | 5% |
| FICOFair Isaac Corporation | $19B | 25.3× | 19.2× | 85.1% | 34.1% | -33% |
| FTNTFortinet, Inc. | $131B | 62.5× | 44.5× | 80.4% | 28.2% | 188% |
| MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc. | $76B | 35.9× | 22.4× | 50.0% | 17.4% | 86% |
| SNPSSynopsys, Inc. | $79B | 71.7× | 24.4× | 72.4% | 11.4% | 4% |
| WDAYWorkday, Inc. | $50B | 38.9× | 32.1× | 75.8% | 12.3% | 17% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 44.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $141 | $222.65 · −37% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $263 | $222.65 · +18% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.