Autodesk, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Autodesk's technical picture has improved meaningfully since early October, with the stock at $239.9 now trading above both its 50-day ($233.3) and 200-day ($235.7) moving averages alongside a positive MACD histogram (+3.07) and an RSI of 59.9 — not overbought.
Fundamentals remain compelling: FY2026 revenue of $7.2B grew 17.5% YoY with a 33.4% FCF margin generating $2.4B in free cash flow, Q2 FY2027 revenue of $2.05B grew 16.1% YoY, and the stock trades at 30.9x P/E — a 24.5% discount to the peer median of 40.9x. Consistent earnings beats (most recent adjusted EPS $3.30 vs. $3.12 consensus) and a June 2026 insider cluster buy by three executives at ~$189/share support the growth thesis despite a modest operating margin contraction from 22.3% to 21.9%.
What could go wrong
- Valuation cushion reduced. Stock has recovered from ~$209 to $239.9 since the prior verdict, narrowing the discount to peers and reducing the margin of safety before the technical turn confirmed.
- Operating margin compression. FY2026 operating margin of 21.9% is down from 22.3% in FY2025, suggesting cost pressures may be moderating operating leverage even as revenue accelerates.
- Net insider selling overhang. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold ~37,900 shares worth ~$13.0M; the June 2026 cluster buy of ~$1.4M by three executives, while encouraging, does not offset the broader disposition trend.
- AEC cycle sensitivity. Autodesk's architecture, engineering, and construction segment is exposed to macro construction cycles; a downturn in non-residential construction spend could slow subscription renewals and new seats.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · quarterly results · peer comparison · earnings vs estimates. Orin's read on ADSK; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 22.8% over twelve months, from $313.53 on 27 Oct 2025 to $242.10 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $313.53 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 22.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 9.2M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ADSK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $980.7M | 0.1% |
| FMR | $739.5M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $576.7M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $564.5M | 0.1% |
96 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 81 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$13.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ADSK
Orin answers questions about ADSK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 31.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 60.2×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 31.2×below usual | 60.2× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 6.50×below usual | 9.97× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.8×below usual | 43.4× | — |
| P/B | 15.0×below usual | 29.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $301 (from $215 to $341) — 24% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$301
$215 – $341 · +24% against the last close
- 22 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 31.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 67.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADSKAutodesk, Inc. | $51B | 31.2× | 21.8× | 91.2% | 21.1% | 53% |
| CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc. | $94B | 67.8× | 40.5× | 85.7% | 22.5% | 20% |
| PTCPTC Inc. | $21B | 21.9× | 14.6× | 82.8% | 37.8% | n/m |
| SNPSSynopsys, Inc. | $91B | 82.4× | 26.3× | 72.4% | 11.4% | 4% |
| TRMBTrimble Inc. | $13B | lost money | 50.4× | 68.9% | −4.1% | −3% |
- TRMB: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- PTC: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 31.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now31.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $125 a share — 48% below the $243.04 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $125 | 48% below $243.04 |
| Levered | $234 | 4% below $243.04 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.