Ameren Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Ameren remains a fundamentally solid regulated utility with FY2025 EPS of $5.35 (up 21% YoY) and operating margin expansion to 23.0%, but the oversold entry that justified the prior buy call has partially played out — the stock has recovered from $99.39 to $102.19 with RSI normalizing to 48.6, yet it still trades below both the 50-day ($105.04) and 200-day ($107.91) moving averages.
The P/E of 17.8x sits at a 13.9% discount to the peer median of 20.7x, but recent quarterly revenue trends are concerning (Q2 2026 revenue fell 5.8% YoY and Q4 2025 fell 8.2% YoY), free cash flow remains deeply negative at -$821M, and insiders have been consistent net sellers with 26 dispositions and zero open-market acquisitions over 24 months. The combination of deteriorating near-term revenue, persistent negative FCF, and insider selling offsets the valuation discount and earnings beat streak, warranting a neutral stance until either technicals repair or revenue growth reaccelerates.
What could go wrong
- Revenue deceleration. Q2 2026 revenue declined 5.8% YoY to $2.092B and Q4 2025 fell 8.2% YoY, suggesting the strong FY2025 full-year growth of 15.4% may not be sustained into 2026.
- Persistent negative free cash flow. FY2025 FCF of -$821M, while improved from -$1.647B in FY2024, still reflects a massive capex program of $4.174B against operating cash flow of $3.353B, with total debt rising to $19.83B.
- Insider selling pressure. Over 24 months, insiders executed 26 dispositions and zero open-market acquisitions, netting -96,263 shares sold (-$10.4M), with recent sales in Aug–Sep 2026 at $105–110 per share.
- Technical overhead resistance. Stock at $102.19 trades below both the 50-day MA ($105.04) and 200-day MA ($107.91), creating overhead supply that could cap any rally attempt.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results and earnings vs estimates · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on AEE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 3.7% over twelve months, from $104.81 on 27 Oct 2025 to $108.74 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $118.32 on 26 Jun 2026; the last close is 8.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.5M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AEE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.9B | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $2.3B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $880.8M | 0.0% |
| Franklin Resources | $689.4M | 0.1% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $671.1M | 0.1% |
| FMR | $541.0M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $509.9M | 0.0% |
86 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 86 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$10.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AEE
Orin answers questions about AEE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 19.4× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 20.1×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.4×near usual | 20.1× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 3.50×above usual | 3.07× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5×below usual | 12.0× | — |
| P/B | 2.2×above usual | 2.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $113 (from $104 to $126) — 4% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$113
$104 – $126 · +4% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 19.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEEAmeren Corporation | $31B | 19.4× | 7.5× | 29.2% | 17.9% | 12% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $22B | 24.2× | 13.6× | 77.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $28B | 24.0× | 12.4× | 53.3% | 11.8% | 10% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| ESEversource Energy | $27B | 18.6× | 10.2× | 35.2% | 10.4% | 9% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | $46B | 16.3× | 10.7× | 24.5% | 11.0% | 10% |
| FEFirstEnergy Corp. | $27B | 24.7× | 12.8× | 53.4% | 6.9% | 9% |
| IDAIDACORP, Inc. | $8B | 22.8× | 14.7× | 21.7% | 18.8% | 9% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $18B | 22.1× | 14.6× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $107B | 21.3× | 12.0× | 49.7% | 16.0% | 13% |
| TXNMTXNM Energy, Inc. | $6B | 32.5× | 6.7× | 39.6% | 8.8% | 6% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 19.4× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now19.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.