Ameren Corporation AEE
Ameren delivered FY2025 EPS of $5.35 (up 21% YoY) and reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $5.25–$5.45, with Q2 2026 EPS of $1.13 beating the prior-year $1.01, but the growth is being financed by a heavy capex program ($4.17B in FY2025) that keeps free cash flow deeply negative at -$821M and has pushed total debt to $19.83B, up 46% since 2021. The stock trades at a 13% P/E discount to the peer median (19.1x vs 22.0x) yet a 37% P/S premium (3.47x vs 2.53x), and insiders remain net sellers with -$17.0M of net selling over 24 months including a 6,500-share sale by Group President Moehn at $108.96 on August 3, 2026.
With the price sitting below its 50-day MA ($110.96) and MACD still negative, the setup is balanced enough to warrant patience until rate-case outcomes and FCF trajectory confirm the capex-driven growth thesis.
What could go wrong
- Negative free cash flow persistence. FCF has been negative for five consecutive years (-$821M in FY2025) as capex of $4.17B outpaces operating cash flow of $3.35B; if rate relief lags investment, equity issuance or further debt growth could pressure shareholders.
- Rising leverage. Total debt reached $19.83B at FY2025-end versus $13.61B in FY2021, and the August 2026 $400M bond offering at 5.50% due 2036 signals continued balance-sheet expansion.
- Insider selling trend. Over the trailing 24 months insiders disposed of $17.0M net, with 43 dispositions versus 40 acquisitions; recent sales by Moehn (6,500 shares at $108.96) and Shaw (325 shares at $108.93) in August 2026 continue the pattern.
- Valuation mixed signals. While the P/E of 19.1x sits 13% below the peer median of 22.0x, the P/S of 3.47x is 37% above the peer median of 2.53x, suggesting the market may be pricing in growth that leaves limited margin of safety.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual; derived_metrics eps_growth_yoy 0.2104 · GuruFocus Q2 2026 earnings call highlights, published 2026-07-31 · FMP FY2025 annual · FMP FY2025 and FY2021 annual. Orin's read on AEE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AEE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $2.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $880.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $689.4M | 0.1% of fund |
83 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 86 Form 4 filings, net −$17.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AEE
Orin answers questions about AEE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.4× | 20.1× | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8× | 12.0× | — |
| P/S | 3.16× | 3.07× | — |
| P/B | 2.0× | 2.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.11σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$121
$117 – $126 · +21% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEEAmeren Corporation | $28B | 17.4× | 11.8× | 41.1% | 17.9% | 12% |
| ATOAtmos Energy Corporation | $26B | 18.4× | 13.4× | 61.0% | 28.5% | 10% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $20B | 18.7× | 12.4× | 69.7% | 11.6% | 11% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $26B | 19.3× | 12.5× | 36.7% | 8.1% | 11% |
| ESEversource Energy | $24B | 16.8× | 9.7× | 35.2% | 10.4% | 9% |
| FEFirstEnergy Corp. | $25B | 23.3× | 11.6× | 53.4% | 6.9% | 9% |
| PPLPPL Corporation | $24B | 26.1× | 13.4× | 34.6% | 13.5% | 9% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $96B | 20.0× | 12.0× | 43.4% | 15.4% | 13% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 9.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-249 | $109.37 · −327% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-71 | $109.37 · −165% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.