Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Advanced Energy Industries is in a strong fundamental upcycle — Q2 2026 revenue of $574.1M grew 30% YoY with operating income of $95.1M, and the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in four consecutive quarters including a 24% surprise in the most recent quarter.
After a roughly 21.8% pullback since the last earnings report, the stock at $288.66 now trades at a PE of 49.94, roughly 30% below the peer median of 71.38, and below both its 50-day ($290.59) and 200-day ($307.24) moving averages. However, insiders remain persistent net sellers with zero acquisitions and $37.5M of net dispositions over 24 months, and smart money positioning is slightly negative at -0.01 as of Q2 2026, which tempers enthusiasm despite the improving setup.
What could go wrong
- Insider selling persistence. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders executed 222 transactions with zero open-market acquisitions and net dispositions of 138,024 shares worth $37.5M; recent sales in September–October 2026 continue this pattern.
- Capex escalation compressing FCF. FY2025 capital expenditure jumped to $107.4M from $56.8M in FY2024, reducing FCF margin to 7.0% despite revenue growth of 21.4%.
- Semiconductor cyclicality. Revenue declined 10.5% in FY2024 and 10.3% in FY2023, demonstrating sensitivity to semi capex cycles; a downturn could reverse the current margin expansion.
- Technical breakdown risk. Stock trades below both MA50 ($290.59) and MA200 ($307.24); failure to reclaim these levels could signal further downside despite improving fundamentals.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates · news, 2 Sep · peer comparison, 9 Oct. Orin's read on AEIS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 13.5% over twelve months, from $205.12 on 27 Oct 2025 to $232.90 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $389.05 on 1 May 2026; the last close is 40.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 6.8M, on 30 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AEIS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $799.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $639.1M | 0.0% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $581.4M | 0.1% |
| FMR | $528.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $474.4M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $443.1M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $382.3M | 0.0% |
| Earnest Partners | $355.8M | 1.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $351.0M | 0.0% |
99 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 222 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$37.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 25 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AEIS
Orin answers questions about AEIS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 40.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 40.3× | — | 46.1× |
| P/S | 4.58×above usual | 2.47× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.8×above usual | 19.8× | — |
| P/B | 6.2×above usual | 3.6× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 16.1× to 125× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $429 (from $375 to $535) — 84% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$429
$375 – $535 · +84% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 40.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 33.5×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEISAdvanced Energy Industries, Inc. | $9B | 40.3× | 27.8× | 39.7% | 10.8% | 16% |
| COHRCoherent, Inc. | $33B | 33.5× | 21.1× | 38.2% | 12.2% | 9% |
| GLWCorning Incorporated | $109B | 50.5× | 24.2× | 36.4% | 12.1% | 17% |
| LFUSLittelfuse, Inc. | $10B | lost money | 40.2× | 39.3% | −0.3% | 0% |
| MKSIMKS Inc. | $12B | 19.8× | 12.6× | 44.7% | 12.6% | 20% |
| VICRVicor Corporation | $10B | 53.9× | 53.5× | 60.6% | 32.2% | 22% |
| VSHVishay Intertechnology, Inc. | $3B | 31.6× | 6.4× | 22.2% | 2.4% | 4% |
- LFUS: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 40.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now40.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $58 a share — 75% below the $232.34 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $58 | 75% below $232.34 |
| Levered | $58 | 75% below $232.34 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.