American Electric Power Company, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
AEP's data-center-driven growth thesis remains credible — FY2025 revenue grew 9.4% to $21.78B with EPS up 19.4% to $6.66 and FCF turning positive at $6.81B — but the stock has recovered from its oversold lows to $122.32 with RSI at 54.8, and now trades at a ~5% PE premium and ~8% EV/EBITDA premium to the regulated-electric peer median.
The Q2 2026 EPS miss ($1.30 actual vs. $1.48 estimate, an 8.1% negative surprise) alongside a $50.2B debt load and a $78B capital plan funded partly by equity issuance tempers enthusiasm at current levels. With no insider acquisitions over 24 months and net insider selling of $7.85M, the risk/reward looks balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Capital plan execution and balance sheet strain. Total debt stood at $50.24B as of FY2025 against $31.14B equity, and the $78B buildout requires sustained borrowing and equity issuance that could pressure the dividend and dilute shareholders.
- Valuation premium to peers. AEP trades at 21.0x PE and 13.9x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 20.0x and 12.9x respectively, leaving limited margin of safety if growth disappoints.
- Earnings momentum softening. Q2 2026 EPS of $1.30 missed the $1.48 estimate by 8.1%, the largest negative surprise in the provided series, raising questions about near-term execution.
- Insider dispositions. Over 24 months insiders recorded zero acquisitions and 14 dispositions for net selling of 71,205 shares worth $7.85M, with recent October 2026 transactions all dispositions of restricted stock units.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates, 30 Jul · peer comparison · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on AEP; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 12.0% over twelve months, from $116.39 on 27 Oct 2025 to $130.30 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $138.69 on 26 Jun 2026; the last close is 6.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 15.6M, on 13 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AEP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $7.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.9B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.2B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $2.7B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.9B | 0.3% |
| Bank of America | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $1.5B | 0.1% |
136 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 161 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$7.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AEP
Orin answers questions about AEP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 17.9×); the typical Utilities company on the NASDAQ is at 28.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.4×above usual | 17.9× | 28.1× |
| P/S | 3.15×above usual | 2.52× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.4×above usual | 11.9× | — |
| P/B | 2.2×above usual | 1.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $140 (from $129 to $147) — 7% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$140
$129 – $147 · +7% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | $71B | 22.4× | 14.4× | 49.0% | 13.9% | 10% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc. | $57B | 22.6× | 14.5× | 49.3% | 13.9% | 9% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| EIXEdison International | $22B | 6.0× | 8.4× | 39.9% | 19.8% | 22% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $52B | 27.4× | 14.5× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | $46B | 16.3× | 10.7× | 24.5% | 11.0% | 10% |
| IDAIDACORP, Inc. | $8B | 22.8× | 14.7× | 21.7% | 18.8% | 9% |
| LNTAlliant Energy Corporation | $18B | 22.1× | 14.6× | 42.0% | 18.4% | 11% |
| PCGPG&E Corporation | $35B | 9.6× | 9.0× | 66.9% | 12.0% | 9% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $49B | 21.3× | 13.3× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 28.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now28.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $81 a share — 37% below the $129.15 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $81 | 37% below $129.15 |
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.