Aflac Incorporated
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Aflac remains a hold as technicals have recovered — the stock closed at $119.97 on 16 Oct, above both the 50-day MA ($116.54) and 200-day MA ($115.31), with a positive MACD histogram of 0.91 and RSI at 66.59 — but the fundamental picture stays mixed.
FY2025 EPS fell 29.1% to $6.83 with net income down 33.0% and operating cash flow declining structurally from $5.05B in FY2021 to $2.56B in FY2025, while three consecutive slight EPS misses (Q4 2025 through Q2 2026) and relentless insider selling by 10% owner Japan Post Holdings (net -2.19M shares / -$250.3M over 24 months, with sales continuing through October 2026) cap conviction. Valuation is neither cheap nor expensive at 12.87x earnings versus a peer median of 10.74x, with EV/EBITDA at 8.83x offering a modest 10.4% discount to peers.
What could go wrong
- Persistent insider selling. Japan Post Holdings, a 10% owner, has sold continuously under a 10b5-1 plan with zero acquisitions across 313 transactions over 24 months, netting -2.19M shares for -$250.3M; sales continued as recently as 14 Oct.
- Earnings deterioration. FY2025 net income fell 33.0% YoY and EPS dropped 29.1% to $6.83; three consecutive quarterly EPS misses (Q4 2025 at -7.1%, Q1 2026 at -2.2%, Q2 2026 at -0.57%) suggest estimates remain too high.
- Declining cash flow. Operating cash flow has declined from $5.05B in FY2021 to $2.56B in FY2025, a structural trend that raises questions about the sustainability of capital returns.
- Valuation premium on weak growth. At 12.87x earnings, AFL trades at a 19.8% premium to the peer median of 10.74x despite negative revenue growth of -8.8% in FY2025, limiting upside if growth does not reaccelerate.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · fundamentals · technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on AFL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 13.4% over twelve months, from $107.55 on 27 Oct 2025 to $121.99 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $129.55 on 28 Jul 2026; the last close is 5.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.0M, on 29 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All AFL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.8B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Wells Fargo | $1.0B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $942.8M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $736.7M | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $624.3M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $471.0M | 0.0% |
110 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 316 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$263.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 47 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AFL
Orin answers questions about AFL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.5× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 10.6×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.5×above usual | 10.6× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 3.82×above usual | 2.61× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.4×above usual | 9.9× | — |
| P/B | 2.1×near usual | 2.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $119 (from $99 to $138) — 2% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$119
$99 – $138 · −2% against the last close
- 2 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 10.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFLAflac Incorporated | $63B | 18.5× | 13.4× | n/a | 21.3% | 12% |
| GLGlobe Life Inc. | $12B | 10.3× | 24.7× | n/a | 18.9% | 20% |
| HIGThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36B | 8.0× | 11.4× | n/a | 15.9% | 24% |
| METMetLife, Inc. | $63B | 12.9× | 8.4× | n/a | 6.2% | 19% |
| PRUPrudential Financial, Inc. | $40B | 10.3× | 8.6× | n/a | 5.9% | 12% |
- AFL, GL, HIG, MET, PRU: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.5× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.