Aflac Incorporated AFL
Aflac remains a hold as FY2025's sharp earnings deterioration—EPS of $6.83, down 29.08% from $9.63 in FY2024, with net income declining 33.01%—continues to overshadow the stock's attractive valuation and improving institutional flows. The shares trade at 12.68x earnings, a 13.5% discount to the peer median of 14.66x, and smart money sentiment has turned modestly positive (score of 0.0314 as of Q2 2026) with BlackRock initiating a $4.09B position, but persistent insider selling by Japan Post Holdings (net -1.49M shares / -$205.5M over 24 months) and a multi-year decline in operating cash flow from $5.05B in FY2021 to $2.56B in FY2025 argue against conviction.
Technically, the stock sits below its 50-day MA ($121.58) with a bearish MACD histogram (-0.93) and RSI near 40, though it holds above the 200-day MA ($114.43), suggesting a pullback within an intact uptrend rather than a breakdown.
What could go wrong
- Japan segment weakness persists. Aflac Japan is the core earnings engine; continued revenue decline (-8.84% YoY in FY2025) and FX headwinds from a stronger dollar could extend the earnings trough into FY2026.
- Japan Post Holdings selling pressure. Japan Post Holdings, a major shareholder at ~50.8M shares, has been consistently selling in August 2026 at prices around $116-$122, contributing to net insider dispositions of -$205.5M over 24 months.
- Operating cash flow deterioration. Operating cash flow has declined from $5.05B in FY2021 to $2.56B in FY2025, a roughly 49% reduction over four years, raising questions about the sustainability of capital return and dividend growth.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $8.41B in FY2025 from $7.50B in FY2024, even as net income fell 33.01%, worsening the debt-to-earnings profile.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · derived_metrics, FY2025 · peer_relative, as of 2026-08-24 · smart_money, as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on AFL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AFL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wells Fargo & Company/Mn | $1.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $942.8M | 0.0% of fund |
107 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 280 Form 4 filings, net −$240.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 47 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AFL
Orin answers questions about AFL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.4× | 10.6× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9× | 9.9× | — |
| P/S | 3.24× | 2.61× | — |
| P/B | 1.9× | 2.2× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.42σ from its own mean).
9.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$119
$99 – $138 · +2% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 18 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFLAflac Incorporated | $59B | 12.4× | 8.9× | 53.9% | 26.9% | 16% |
| METMetLife, Inc. | $63B | 18.5× | 10.1× | 25.6% | 4.6% | 13% |
| PRUPrudential Financial, Inc. | $41B | 10.5× | 8.8× | 30.8% | 5.9% | 12% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $167 | $117.37 · +42% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $79 | $117.37 · −33% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.