Orin
AITNYSE·Industrial - Distribution

Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. AIT

Market cap $12.3BP/E 29.9× trailingGross margin 30.3%Reports Tue 27 Oct, before the open
$331.86
−0.17 (−0.05%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $238.34 – $374.80
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Orin's take
0.55conviction · moderate
Refreshed 29 Aug · take v5. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

AIT's FY2026 results (year ended 2026-06-30) show a solid reacceleration with revenue growth of 8.84% and EPS of $10.95 (up 8.2%), alongside debt reduction from $572.3M to $483.4M and $460.5M in free cash flow. The stock has corrected roughly 10% from prior levels to $322.22 with an RSI of 33.7, bringing the trailing PE to 29.1x — roughly in line with the peer median of 29.9x.

However, EV/EBITDA at 22.2x still carries a 40% premium to the peer median of 15.9x, and persistent insider net selling of approximately $41.9M over 24 months with continued August dispositions tempers enthusiasm despite the oversold technical setup.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation premium persists. EV/EBITDA of 22.2x sits 40% above the peer median of 15.9x, limiting downside protection if growth decelerates.
  • Insider selling. Net insider dispositions of ~95,865 shares (~$41.9M) over 24 months, with multiple August 2026 sales by the CFO and VP-level officers at $340–355.
  • Margin compression risk. Net margin slipped to 8.35% in FY2026 from 8.61% in FY2025 despite revenue acceleration, suggesting cost or mix headwinds.
  • Bearish technical momentum. MACD histogram at -3.62 and stock trading below its 50-day MA of $340.72 indicate ongoing downward pressure despite oversold RSI.

What would change my mind

EV/EBITDA compression. EV/EBITDA reverts toward peer median (~16x) via price decline below $290 or EBITDA expansion from margin improvementbullish
Insider buying reversal. Cluster of open-market insider purchases (code S→A/P) exceeding $5M aggregate over a 30-day windowbullish
Revenue growth deceleration. Q1 FY2027 revenue growth falls below 4% YoY, signaling the FY2026 reacceleration was transientbearish
Operating margin deterioration. Operating margin declines below 10.5% for two consecutive quarters, eroding the compounder thesisbearish

Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2026 · fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2026 · fundamentals FY2026 · peer_relative. Orin's read on AIT; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$714.0M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$563.7M0.0% of fund
Aqr Capital Management$451.6M0.2% of fund
State Street$414.5M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$317.7M0.0% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp$213.6M0.0% of fund

84 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 124 Form 4 filings, net −$33.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E29.9×—44.5×
EV/EBITDA22.9×——
P/S2.47×——
P/B6.7×——
What the price assumes

11.6%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

17 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$402

$390 – $420 · +21% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 11 buy or overweight
  • 6 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 28.7× of 10 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.$12B29.9×22.9×30.3%8.3%22%
AOSA. O. Smith Corporation$8B16.1×11.6×38.6%13.1%27%
ARMKAramark$14B37.2×14.7×6.6%1.9%12%
CNMCore & Main, Inc.$8B17.1×10.7×27.0%6.0%23%
DCIDonaldson Company, Inc.$10B22.1×17.9×34.6%11.7%28%
DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.$10B31.3×21.1×24.9%8.5%12%
FLSFlowserve Corporation$10B26.4×15.5×35.1%8.0%17%
GNRCGenerac Holdings Inc.$12B44.9×23.0×39.5%5.8%10%
POOLPool Corporation$6B14.8×12.5×29.6%7.4%32%
RRXRegal Rexnord Corporation$10B31.0×12.0×37.8%5.3%5%
WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.$12B30.9×19.1×48.8%14.3%19%

The median is of the 10 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 4.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 14.1×FY26 30.5×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $331.86
52-week range$238 – $375
Analyst targets$390 – $420
At sector P/E (45×)$494

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.