Assurant, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Assurant remains a buy: the fundamental picture keeps improving — FY2025 revenue of $12.81B grew 7.9% with EPS up 20.3% to $17.39, and Q2 2026 revenue of $3.45B grew 9.4% YoY with EPS of $5.99, extending a streak of eight consecutive EPS beats including the most recent 24% surprise ($6.41 vs. $5.17 est.).
The stock's recent pullback to $266.73 (down 8.3% over four weeks per Zacks) leaves it below its 50-day MA of $279.59, but the valuation still screens cheap at 0.98x P/S and 8.03x EV/EBITDA — 52% and 33% below peer medians — against a 12.5% FCF margin and $1.60B of FY2025 free cash flow. With Q3 2026 results due November 3 and the company having raised its 2026 outlook, the risk/reward favors accumulation despite soft near-term momentum (RSI 40.7, MACD negative).
What could go wrong
- Valuation not uniformly cheap. AIZ trades at a P/E of 12.55, a 17% premium to the peer median of 10.74, so the discount exists only on P/S and EV/EBITDA; a de-rating on earnings multiples could offset the sales-based cheapness.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months there were zero open-market acquisitions against 14 dispositions, netting -66,431 shares worth roughly -$16.1M, including a $1.19M sale by EVP Biju Nair in August 2026.
- Deteriorating momentum. As of 7 Oct the stock sits below its 50-day MA ($266.73 vs. $279.59) with a negative MACD histogram, and the prior oversold bounce thesis has weakened as RSI recovered to 40.7 without a price recovery.
- Stale institutional signal. The smart-money score is 0.0 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun (flagged stale), giving no confirmation that institutions are accumulating the pullback.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · results, quarter to 30 Jun · earnings vs estimates, 4 Aug · peer comparison, 7 Oct. Orin's read on AIZ; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 34.9% over twelve months, from $212.19 on 27 Oct 2025 to $286.30 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $301.57 on 5 Aug 2026; the last close is 5.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.2M, on 11 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AIZ filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $1.3B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $869.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $761.6M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $682.6M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $379.9M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $329.4M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $307.1M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $269.6M | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $247.2M | 0.1% |
80 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 72 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$16.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AIZ
Orin answers questions about AIZ from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 13.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 14.7×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.5×below usual | 14.7× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 1.05×above usual | 0.90× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.6×near usual | 8.9× | — |
| P/B | 2.3×above usual | 1.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $328 (from $310 to $355) — 14% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$328
$310 – $355 · +14% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 13.5× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 3 companies it is compared to made a profit (FDS 21.2×, GL 10.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIZAssurant, Inc. | $14B | 13.5× | 8.6× | n/a | 7.9% | 18% |
| FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc. | $11B | 21.2× | 13.5× | 50.6% | 21.5% | 26% |
| GLGlobe Life Inc. | $12B | 10.3× | 24.7× | n/a | 18.9% | 20% |
| IVZInvesco Ltd. | $13B | lost money | n/m | 74.6% | −1.1% | −1% |
- IVZ: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- AIZ, GL: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- IVZ: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 13.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now13.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.