Assurant, Inc. AIZ
Assurant continues to deliver accelerating fundamentals — Q2 2026 revenue of $3.45B grew 9.4% YoY while EPS of $5.99 extended a streak of double-digit earnings surprises, including the most recent 27.7% beat. The stock has pulled back to $266.97, below its 50-day MA of $281.72, pushing RSI to 31.1 (oversold), yet it still trades at 0.98x P/S and 8.06x EV/EBITDA — 54% and 31% discounts to peer medians respectively — despite FY2025 free cash flow of $1.6B on a 12.5% FCF margin.
The combination of consistent execution, discounted valuation, and technically oversold conditions makes this an attractive accumulation point. Risks include persistent insider selling and a neutral smart-money score of -0.0004 as of Q2 2026.
What could go wrong
- Insider selling pressure. Over the trailing 24 months, insider net value is -$33.8M with recent open-market sales by the CEO (Sept 2026), EVP Nair ($1.19M in Aug 2026), and EVP Lonergan ($1.84M in June 2026), signaling limited insider conviction at current levels.
- MACD deterioration. As of 2026-09-23, MACD histogram is -1.79 with the line at -2.03 well below the signal at -0.24, indicating bearish momentum that could extend the pullback below the 200-day MA of $249.09.
- Catastrophe exposure in Global Housing. Lender-placed homeowners insurance is exposed to severe weather events; a heavy catastrophe quarter could compress the 8.5% operating margin achieved in FY2025.
- Smart money neutrality. The smart-money score of -0.0004 as of 2026-06-30 with 61 funds shows institutional positioning is essentially flat, providing no tailwind from flows.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q2 2026 · earnings_surprises · technicals as of 2026-09-23 · peer_relative. Orin's read on AIZ; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AIZ filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of New York Mellon | $1.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $869.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $761.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $682.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $379.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $329.4M | 0.0% of fund |
77 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 70 Form 4 filings, net −$33.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AIZ
Orin answers questions about AIZ from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.3× | 14.0× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9× | 8.9× | — |
| P/S | 0.96× | 0.90× | — |
| P/B | 2.1× | 1.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.43σ from its own mean).
-4.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$328
$310 – $355 · +23% against today's price
- 11 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIZAssurant, Inc. | $13B | 12.3× | 7.9× | 78.1% | 7.9% | 18% |
| FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc. | $10B | 17.8× | 11.4× | 51.4% | 23.2% | 27% |
| GLGlobe Life Inc. | $13B | 11.0× | 24.8× | 17.0% | 19.6% | 20% |
| IVZInvesco Ltd. | $14B | — | 9.6× | 67.4% | -0.9% | -1% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $198 | $259.50 · −24% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $540 | $259.50 · +108% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.