Albemarle Corporation ALB
Albemarle's FY2025 results confirm a genuine operational inflection — gross profit recovered to $672M from $60M in FY2024, free cash flow turned positive at $692M, and total debt was cut to $3.30B from $3.62B — but the company remains deeply unprofitable with FY2025 EPS of -$5.75 and net income of -$511M. The stock trades at 2.68x sales versus a peer median of 0.97x and a PE of 279.75 on depressed earnings, while management has explicitly warned of sequential Q3 2026 pressure in Energy Storage sales, EBITDA, and margins.
With smart money scores deteriorating from +0.0543 (Q1 2026) to -0.0246 (Q2 2026) and the stock still 13% below its 200-day moving average of $154.59, the risk/reward is balanced; a better entry likely awaits clarity on Q3 lithium pricing durability.
What could go wrong
- Q3 sequential deterioration. Management warned Q3 2026 Energy Storage sales, EBITDA, and margins may decline sequentially, which could reverse the operational momentum seen in FY2025 and Q2 2026.
- Valuation stretched vs peers. ALB trades at 2.68x sales versus a peer median of 0.97x and a PE of 279.75, leaving little room for disappointment if lithium prices stall.
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score turned negative at -0.0246 as of Q2 2026, down from +0.0543 in Q1 2026, with fund count declining from 66 to 63.
- Persistent unprofitability. FY2025 net income was -$511M and EPS was -$5.75; despite FCF improvement, the company has not yet demonstrated sustained GAAP profitability.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025. Orin's read on ALB; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ALB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $1.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $869.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $744.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $421.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $391.0M | 0.0% of fund |
97 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 109 Form 4 filings, net −$15.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ALB
Orin answers questions about ALB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 225.5× | — | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.7× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.16× | 3.24× | — |
| P/B | 1.2× | 1.8× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.04σ from its own mean).
6.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$203
$161 – $250 · +82% against today's price
- 20 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALBAlbemarle Corporation | $13B | 225.5× | 10.7× | 23.9% | 3.8% | 2% |
| DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc. | $18B | 283.2× | 14.3× | 34.4% | 0.7% | 0% |
| EMNEastman Chemical Company | $8B | 17.1× | 9.5× | 19.9% | 5.0% | 7% |
| LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $19B | — | 16.4× | 13.2% | -1.1% | -3% |
| RPMRPM International Inc. | $13B | 19.0× | 11.4× | 41.4% | 8.4% | 21% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | $9B | — | — | 4.7% | -10.9% | -14% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 1085.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-154 | $149.00 · −203% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-72 | $149.00 · −148% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.