Albemarle Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Albemarle's operational inflection is now visible across two consecutive quarters: Q2 2026 revenue of $1.74B grew 31% YoY with operating income of $453M and diluted EPS of $3.22, while Q1 2026 revenue of $1.43B grew 33% YoY with EPS of $2.34 — a sharp reversal from FY2025's full-year EPS of -$5.75.
The stock is technically oversold at RSI 31.4 and $101.27, trading roughly 34% below its 200-day MA of $154.45, despite EV/EBITDA of 11.40x sitting slightly below the peer median of 11.73x. With FCF turning positive to $692M in FY2025, total debt reduced to $3.3B from $3.6B, and multiple C-suite insiders acquiring shares in September 2026, the market has not yet fully priced in the earnings recovery.
What could go wrong
- Lithium price weakness. The entire thesis hinges on lithium prices stabilizing or recovering; a renewed downturn would reverse the margin expansion seen in Q1–Q2 2026.
- Valuation stretched on trailing earnings. PE of 211x reflects depressed trailing earnings; if the recovery stalls, the stock remains expensive on an earnings basis versus peer median PE of 16.2x.
- Preferred stock conversion overhang. A 2027 preferred stock conversion will dilute shareholders further if the share price stays low, though it eliminates a $167M annual dividend burden per recent news.
- Insider net selling over 24 months. Despite recent acquisitions, the 24-month insider summary shows net dispositions of 42,610 shares worth $7.4M, suggesting limited insider conviction at the aggregate level.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · Q1 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 9 Oct. Orin's read on ALB; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 2.8% over twelve months, from $96.23 on 27 Oct 2025 to $98.96 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $215.62 on 16 Apr 2026; the last close is 54.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.5M, on 17 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ALB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $1.3B | 0.2% |
| BlackRock | $1.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $869.2M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $744.8M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $421.9M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $391.0M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $362.7M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $343.4M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $250.2M | 0.0% |
100 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 109 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$7.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ALB
Orin answers questions about ALB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.6× | — | 22.4× |
| P/S | 1.89×below usual | 3.24× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.5× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.1×below usual | 1.8× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 9.4× to 218× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 7.5× to 53.5× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $167 (from $109 to $250) — 69% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$167
$109 – $250 · +69% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 18.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALBAlbemarle Corporation | $12B | 22.6× | 8.5× | 25.9% | 11.1% | 7% |
| DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc. | $19B | 299× | 13.3× | 34.4% | 0.7% | 0% |
| EMNEastman Chemical Company | $8B | 17.1× | 9.5× | 19.9% | 5.0% | 7% |
| LYBLyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $22B | lost money | 17.7× | 13.2% | −1.1% | −3% |
| RPMRPM International Inc. | $13B | 18.1× | 11.8× | 41.2% | 8.7% | 21% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | $8B | lost money | 18.2× | 5.9% | −3.9% | −5% |
- LYB, WLK: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.