Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Allegro MicroSystems' cyclical recovery is underway—Q1 FY2027 revenue reached $259.2M (+27.5% YoY) with a return to positive net income of $15.9M and operating income of $25.5M, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last eight quarters—but trailing profitability remains too thin to support a trailing PE of 447.8x.
FY2026 gross margin of 46.4% and operating margin of 4.8% are far below the 56.1% and 20.9% levels achieved in FY2023, the stock at $36.27 trades below both its 50-day ($37.92) and 200-day ($40.50) moving averages, and smart money conviction is negligible (score 0.00 as of 30 Jun). With Q2 FY2027 results due October 29, the turnaround narrative is credible but unproven at scale, making this a wait-and-see story.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalls. FY2026 gross margin of 46.4% remains well below the 56.1% achieved in FY2023; if automotive end-market weakness persists, operating leverage may not materialize.
- Valuation compression. Trailing PE of 447.8x and EV/EBITDA of 66.3x leave no room for disappointment; any earnings miss could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Institutional apathy. Smart money score of 0.00 as of 30 Jun with fund count declining from 52 to 49 suggests institutional conviction is absent despite the recovery.
- Insider selling. Insiders are net sellers over 24 months with net dispositions of 136,106 shares and net value of -$5.77M, though recent board acquisitions of deferred stock units partially offset this.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 26 Jun · FY26 fundamentals · FY23 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on ALGM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 11.5% over twelve months, from $30.48 on 27 Oct 2025 to $33.98 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $69.62 on 30 Jun 2026; the last close is 51.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 12.2M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ALGM filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 7 Oct | — | on file |
| 13G | 13 Aug | — | on file |
| 8-K | 7 Aug | Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on August 5, 2026, resulting in the election of Jennie M. Raubacher, Brian C. White, and Robert J. Willett as… | read |
| 13G/A | 6 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 31 Jul | Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. reported net sales of $259.2 million for the three months ended June 26, 2026, a 27.5% increase year-over-year from $203.4 million for the three months ended June 27, 2025. | read |
| 8-K | 30 Jul | Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. reported financial results for the quarter ended June 26, 2026, via press release on July 30, 2026. | read |
| 13G/A | 27 Jul | — | on file |
| 13G | 16 Jul | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| BlackRock | $967.0M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $952.3M | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $844.9M | 0.0% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $835.9M | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $533.9M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $395.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $383.5M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $258.3M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $184.2M | 0.0% |
61 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 86 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$5.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 13 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ALGM
Orin answers questions about ALGM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 420× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 3 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 46.3×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 420×above usual | 46.3× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 6.70×near usual | 6.44× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 62.2× | — | — |
| P/B | 6.5×above usual | 5.8× | — |
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 19.0× to 536× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $54 (from $45 to $67) — 59% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$54
$45 – $67 · +59% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 420× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 50.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALGMAllegro MicroSystems, Inc. | $6B | 420× | 62.2× | 47.2% | 1.5% | 1% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $206B | 50.2× | 30.3× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| AMBAAmbarella, Inc. | $3B | lost money | n/m | 58.3% | −13.5% | −9% |
| INDIindie Semiconductor, Inc. | $295M | lost money | n/m | 26.7% | −61.0% | −47% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $60B | 73.9× | 56.1× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| ONON Semiconductor Corporation | $31B | 49.8× | 20.5× | 37.4% | 10.2% | 8% |
| OUSTOuster, Inc. | $2B | lost money | n/m | 49.6% | −26.0% | −18% |
| SLABSilicon Laboratories Inc. | $7B | lost money | n/m | 59.9% | −4.6% | −4% |
| SMTCSemtech Corporation | $13B | 87.1× | 104× | 52.0% | 13.1% | 25% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $282B | 40.0× | 26.6× | 60.2% | 34.3% | 41% |
- SLAB: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its operating profit before depreciation over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- AMBA, INDI, OUST, SLAB: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- AMBA, INDI, OUST: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 420× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now420×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $3 a share — 90% below the $34.48 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $3 | 90% below $34.48 |
| Levered | $4 | 87% below $34.48 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.