Align Technology, Inc. ALGN
ALGN remains a hold as FY2025 revenue growth of 0.9% ($4.03B vs $4.00B) and EPS of $5.65 — well below the FY2021 peak of $9.69 — confirm a business still searching for reacceleration, while gross margin compression to 68.3% (from 74.3% in FY2021) signals persistent competitive and mix pressure. The stock trades at a 28.3x trailing PE, a ~50% discount to the peer median of 56.9x, supported by a clean balance sheet ($114M debt vs $4.05B equity) and 12.2% FCF margin, but technicals are deteriorating with price below both the 50-day ($175.26) and 200-day ($169.26) moving averages and a negative MACD histogram.
The newly disclosed $37.5M U.K. VAT liability adds near-term earnings uncertainty, making it premature to turn constructive despite the China patent win and modestly positive smart-money score of 0.0021 as of Q2 2026.
What could go wrong
- UK VAT overhang. A $37.5M U.K. VAT liability, new 20% VAT charges, and a pending appeal create fresh earnings uncertainty that could pressure margins already compressed to 68.3% in FY2025.
- Stagnant revenue growth. FY2025 revenue grew only 0.9% YoY to $4.03B, and revenue has been essentially flat in the $3.73B–$4.04B range since FY2022, suggesting structural demand softness.
- Margin erosion trend. Operating margin declined to 15.3% in FY2025 from 24.7% in FY2021, and gross margin fell to 68.3% from 74.3%, indicating sustained competitive and pricing pressure.
- Technical breakdown. As of 2026-08-19, the stock at $163.04 trades below both its 50-day MA ($175.26) and 200-day MA ($169.26) with a negative MACD histogram, signaling bearish momentum.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 and FY2021 annual · derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2021 · peer_relative. Orin's read on ALGN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ALGN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $742.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $684.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $577.2M | 0.1% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $568.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $528.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $431.5M | 0.0% of fund |
80 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 66 Form 4 filings, net −$4.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ALGN
Orin answers questions about ALGN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.3× | 45.6× | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.0× | 20.1× | — |
| P/S | 2.52× | 4.42× | — |
| P/B | 2.5× | 4.6× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.49σ from its own mean).
8.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$205
$188 – $235 · +39% against today's price
- 24 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALGNAlign Technology, Inc. | $10B | 25.3× | 12.0× | 66.5% | 10.0% | 10% |
| RVTYRevvity, Inc. | $17B | 71.8× | 24.9× | 52.1% | 8.2% | 3% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 64.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $88 | $176.16 · −50% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $99 | $176.16 · −44% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.