The Allstate Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Allstate remains a compelling deep-value buy, trading at a P/E of 4.53 and EV/EBITDA of 3.69 as of 9 Oct — roughly 53% below the P&C peer median on both metrics — while FY2025 delivered $10.28B net income, a 19.8% operating margin, and $38.19 diluted EPS, a dramatic turnaround from FY2023's operating loss.
Q2 2026 sustained the momentum with $12.51 EPS and 12.4% YoY revenue growth, and Allstate has beaten consensus EPS estimates by 45–48% in each of the last four quarters. The stock has pulled back below its 50-day MA of $249.65 to $229.43 with an RSI near 40, offering an attractive entry for a franchise generating near-15% net margins and $9.88B in free cash flow.
What could go wrong
- Catastrophe exposure. Hurricane season and elevated catastrophe losses could pressure Q3 2026 results, with the earnings call scheduled for Nov. 5, 2026; prior catastrophe events have caused volatility in quarterly results.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders recorded zero open-market acquisitions and 82 dispositions totaling net -640,454 shares (-$138M), all recent transactions being tax-related or option-exercise sales.
- Pricing competition. Recent press highlights that homeowners staying loyal to their insurer paid more, suggesting pricing pressure and customer churn risk in personal lines.
- Smart money neutral. Institutional smart money score is -0.00 as of 30 Jun, essentially flat, indicating no strong institutional conviction despite the deep discount.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison, 9 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates. Orin's read on ALL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 30.3% over twelve months, from $193.20 on 27 Oct 2025 to $251.71 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $275.11 on 6 Aug 2026; the last close is 8.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.3M, on 22 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All ALL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| Franklin Resources | $2.1B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.9B | 0.2% |
| Bank of America | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $872.4M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $856.2M | 0.1% |
106 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 331 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$138.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ALL
Orin answers questions about ALL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 6.0× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 1 of the 3 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 11.2×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 6.0×below usual | 11.2× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 0.97×above usual | 0.73× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.1×near usual | 2.1× | — |
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 4.4× to 59.8× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $266 (from $221 to $319) — 6% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$266
$221 – $319 · +6% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 6.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 10.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLThe Allstate Corporation | $67B | 6.0× | 4.8× | n/a | 16.8% | 36% |
| CBChubb Limited | $137B | 12.4× | 13.1× | n/a | 18.0% | 15% |
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $28B | 10.6× | 7.8× | n/a | 20.1% | 17% |
| HIGThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36B | 8.0× | 11.4× | n/a | 15.9% | 24% |
| PGRThe Progressive Corporation | $131B | 11.3× | 9.1× | n/a | 12.7% | 35% |
| TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $81B | 10.2× | 7.8× | n/a | 17.0% | 26% |
- ALL, CB, CINF, HIG, PGR, TRV: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 6.0× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now6.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.