The Allstate Corporation ALL
Allstate's earnings turnaround is unambiguously confirmed — FY2025 produced $10.28B net income and $38.19 diluted EPS versus a $1.29B net loss in FY2022 — yet the stock trades at 5.12x P/E and 4.15x EV/EBITDA, each roughly 53% below the P&C peer median. The shares have cooled from the overbought conditions flagged two weeks ago (RSI down to 51.67, price retraced to $259.74 from prior highs), offering a more balanced entry alongside a positive smart money score of 0.0241 as of Q2 2026.
July 2026 catastrophe losses of $682M are a legitimate near-term headwind but remain absorbable given FY2025's $10.28B net income and $9.88B free cash flow.
What could go wrong
- Catastrophe season escalation. Allstate already disclosed $682M in July 2026 estimated cat losses ($539M after-tax); an active H2 hurricane season could compound Q3–Q4 underwriting pressure.
- Margin sustainability. Operating margin expanded from -3.6% in FY2022 to 19.8% in FY2025; any reversion in underwriting discipline or reserve adequacy would undercut the cheap-earnings thesis.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 490,246 shares worth $148.6M, including continued sales in August 2026 by senior executives.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Top-line growth slowed to 4.64% in FY2025 from 12.24% in FY2024, potentially signaling pricing-power limits as the rate-driven recovery matures.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative · peer_relative · technicals. Orin's read on ALL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ALL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $2.1B | 0.4% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $1.9B | 0.2% of fund |
103 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 316 Form 4 filings, net −$147.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ALL
Orin answers questions about ALL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5× | — | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.7× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.84× | 0.73× | — |
| P/B | 1.7× | 2.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.52σ from its own mean).
-9.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $9.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$270
$226 – $319 · +18% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 23 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALLThe Allstate Corporation | $58B | 4.5× | 3.7× | 42.2% | 19.2% | 43% |
| AFLAflac Incorporated | $59B | 12.4× | 8.9× | 53.9% | 26.9% | 16% |
| CBChubb Limited | $129B | 11.8× | 11.9× | 39.6% | 18.1% | 15% |
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $25B | 7.6× | 5.5× | 52.3% | 23.8% | 21% |
| HIGThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $35B | 8.1× | 7.9× | 43.9% | 15.0% | 23% |
| PGRThe Progressive Corporation | $118B | 10.2× | 8.2× | 26.9% | 12.8% | 35% |
| TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $75B | 9.5× | 7.4× | 34.7% | 17.0% | 26% |
| WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $25B | 13.8× | 10.3× | 44.8% | 10.7% | 20% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 56.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $344 | $224.50 · +53% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $1212 | $224.50 · +440% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.