Antero Midstream Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Antero Midstream generates strong free cash flow ($770.2M in FY2025, 61.2% FCF margin) and consistent revenue growth (7.0% FY2025, with Q1–Q2 2026 revenue up 8.3–8.6% YoY), but operating margin compression from 56.0% in FY2024 to 51.2% in FY2025 — alongside four consecutive quarterly EPS misses — makes the 64% P/E premium to the peer median (24.6x vs 15.0x) difficult to justify.
The stock trades below both its 50-day ($21.60) and 200-day ($21.42) moving averages with RSI at 44.7, yet a slightly positive MACD histogram, recent insider acquisitions on 10 Oct, and ongoing capital returns ($0.225/share Q3 2026 dividend, 1.3M shares repurchased) suggest the post-pullback risk/reward is more balanced, warranting a hold until margin trends stabilize.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Operating margin fell from 56.0% in FY2024 to 51.2% in FY2025, and Q2 2026 operating income ($182.0M) declined from Q2 2025 ($186.4M) despite 8.3% revenue growth, signaling cost pressure or mix deterioration.
- Customer concentration. AM's gathering and processing infrastructure primarily serves Antero Resources' wells in West Virginia and Ohio, creating revenue dependency on a single upstream operator's drilling and completion activity.
- Elevated leverage against declining equity. Total debt of $3.22B at FY2025 against stockholders' equity of $1.97B (down from $2.12B in FY2024) increases balance-sheet sensitivity if FCF growth slows or interest rates remain elevated.
- Valuation premium vulnerable to further compression. P/E of 24.6x is 64% above the peer median of 15.0x and P/S of 7.5x is 123% above the 3.3x median; sustained EPS misses could drive multiple contraction toward peer levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 and Q2 2025 results · peer comparison. Orin's read on AM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 19.2% over twelve months, from $17.70 on 27 Oct 2025 to $21.10 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $23.60 on 25 Mar 2026; the last close is 10.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 10.8M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $869.0M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $472.0M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $413.9M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $340.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $263.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $235.7M | 0.0% |
| Tortoise Capital Advisors | $231.7M | 2.4% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $157.4M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $152.5M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $88.9M | 0.0% |
75 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 117 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$6.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AM
Orin answers questions about AM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 25.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 16.3×); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.1×above usual | 16.3× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 7.63×above usual | 5.43× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0×above usual | 10.2× | — |
| P/B | 5.2×above usual | 2.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $23.75 (from $22 to $25) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$23.75
$22 – $25 · +13% against the last close
- 0 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 25.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 16.5×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAntero Midstream Corporation | $10B | 25.1× | 14.0× | 62.9% | 30.4% | 20% |
| DKLDelek Logistics Partners, LP | $3B | 17.9× | 6.2× | 11.8% | 11.9% | n/m |
| DTMDT Midstream, Inc. | $13B | 27.9× | 14.9× | 63.2% | 35.7% | 10% |
| HESMHess Midstream LP | $7B | 10.9× | 8.3× | 80.8% | 23.3% | 69% |
| NGLNGL Energy Partners LP | $2B | lost money | 4.0× | 41.4% | −6.4% | −24% |
| OKEONEOK, Inc. | $61B | 16.5× | 11.8× | 21.8% | 9.3% | 16% |
| PAGPPlains GP Holdings LP | $6B | 10.2× | 4.9× | 5.1% | 1.1% | 40% |
| WESWestern Midstream Partners, LP | $16B | 12.7× | 10.8× | 65.0% | 27.7% | 32% |
| WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc. | $91B | 29.4× | 15.8× | 73.6% | 25.2% | 24% |
- NGL: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- DKL: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 25.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now25.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $25 a share — 20% above the $20.95 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $25 | 20% above $20.95 |
| Levered | $31 | 49% above $20.95 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.