Antero Midstream Corporation AM
Antero Midstream trades at a 25.5x P/E — a 125% premium to the peer median of 11.3x — yet operating income declined year-over-year in Q2 2026 ($182.0M vs $186.4M in Q2 2025) despite 8.3% revenue growth, signaling margin compression that the market has not fully priced in. The stock has broken below its 50-day moving average ($22.07) with bearish MACD and an RSI of 39.2, while smart money flows turned slightly negative (SM score -0.0014 as of Q2 2026) and insiders have been net sellers in dollar terms ($32.5M net dispositions over 24 months).
Four consecutive quarterly EPS misses — including a 54% miss in Q4 2025 — and a Q2 2026 EPS of $0.24 down from $0.26 a year earlier make the valuation premium increasingly difficult to justify.
What could go wrong
- Dividend yield support. AM's strong free cash flow ($770.2M in FY2025, 61.2% FCF margin) likely supports a meaningful dividend that could attract income buyers and establish a price floor near current levels.
- Antero Resources activity ramp. As a captive midstream provider tied to Antero Resources' well output in West Virginia and Ohio, any acceleration in parent-company drilling could boost throughput volumes and reverse the margin compression trend.
- Oversold technical bounce. RSI at 39.2 and the stock sitting just $0.03 above its 200-day moving average ($21.20) could attract technical buyers and trigger a short-term rebound.
- One-time cost items. The Q2 2026 operating income decline despite revenue growth may reflect transient costs rather than structural margin erosion; normalization could quickly restore profitability.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative composite · quarterly_results Q2 2026 and Q2 2025 · technicals as of 2026-09-24 · smart_money as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on AM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Invesco | $472.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $413.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $340.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $263.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $235.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Tortoise Capital Advisors, L.L.C | $231.7M | 2.4% of fund |
73 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 117 Form 4 filings, net −$32.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AM
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.3× | — | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1× | — | — |
| P/S | 7.68× | — | — |
| P/B | 5.2× | — | — |
1.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$24
$22 – $25 · +14% against today's price
- 2 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAntero Midstream Corporation | $10B | 25.3× | 14.1× | 62.9% | 30.4% | 20% |
| APAAPA Corporation | $15B | 9.2× | 3.5× | 38.8% | 19.0% | 26% |
| DTMDT Midstream, Inc. | $13B | 27.1× | 14.6× | 63.2% | 35.7% | 10% |
| HESMHess Midstream LP | $8B | 13.3× | 9.4× | 80.8% | 23.3% | 69% |
| PAAPlains All American Pipeline, L.P. | $17B | 6.8× | 8.1× | 4.5% | 5.3% | 27% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 124.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.