Ambarella, Inc. AMBA
Ambarella's operating-loss trajectory is improving meaningfully — Q2 FY2027 (ended 2026-07-31) showed an operating loss of just -$8.1M versus -$18.2M in Q1 FY2027 and -$82.5M for all of FY2026 — and the September 15 X7 AI accelerator launch plus ZEDEDA, Ultralytics, and Google Cloud partnerships expand the edge-AI ecosystem. However, the company remains GAAP-unprofitable (EPS -$1.78 in FY2026), revenue growth has decelerated to 13.2% YoY in the latest quarter from 37.15% for the full fiscal year, smart money has thinned (score 0.0007 as of 2026-06-30, down from 0.0067 a year prior; fund count fell from 46 to 40), and insiders including the CEO, CFO, COO, and multiple VPs sold shares on September 17 at ~$64.83.
With the stock at $67.06, below both the 50-day ($71.86) and 200-day ($68.37) moving averages, the path to profitability is not yet confirmed enough to justify a buy despite an attractive P/S of 6.65 versus the peer median of 8.36.
What could go wrong
- Revenue growth deceleration. YoY revenue growth slowed to 13.2% in Q2 FY2027 from 37.15% for FY2026; if this trend continues, the scale needed to reach operating profitability may take longer than expected.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the 24-month window insiders net disposed of $24.3M in value; on September 17, 2026 alone the CEO, CFO, COO, and two VPs all sold shares at ~$64.83, signaling limited confidence at current levels.
- Smart money exodus. Smart money score fell from 0.0067 (2025-06-30) to 0.0007 (2026-06-30) and fund count dropped from 46 to 40, indicating institutional interest is waning despite the product-cycle narrative.
- Still GAAP-unprofitable. FY2026 net income was -$75.9M with EPS of -$1.78; while losses are narrowing, there is no confirmed timeline to sustained profitability, and the P/E remains negative at -49.1x.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results, fiscal_year 2027 Q2 and Q1 · fundamentals and derived_metrics, fiscal_year 2026 · quarterly_results, fiscal_year 2027 Q2 revenue_yoy_pct · smart_money points. Orin's read on AMBA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AMBA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $316.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $223.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $219.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $160.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Manufacturers Life Insurance Company, The | $158.2M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $94.2M | 0.0% of fund |
55 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 180 Form 4 filings, net −$25.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 25 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AMBA
Orin answers questions about AMBA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 7.10× | — | — |
| P/B | 4.8× | — | — |
20.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$86
$65 – $106 · +26% against today's price
- 21 buy or overweight
- 14 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMBAAmbarella, Inc. | $3B | — | — | 58.3% | -13.5% | -9% |
| FORMFormFactor, Inc. | $10B | 88.7× | 59.3× | 45.6% | 12.8% | 11% |
| IPGPIPG Photonics Corporation | $3B | 116.9× | 23.6× | 38.4% | 2.6% | 1% |
| NVTSNavitas Semiconductor Corp | $3B | — | — | -1.7% | -856.9% | -62% |
| SLABSilicon Laboratories Inc. | $7B | — | — | 59.9% | -4.6% | -4% |
| SYNASynaptics Incorporated | $4B | — | — | 44.7% | -41.0% | -39% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.