AMCRNYSE·Packaging & Containers

Amcor plc AMCR

Market cap $19.8BP/E 17.9× trailingGross margin 20.0%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open

$42.83

+0.03 (+0.07%)live 09:30 ET

52-wk $36.25 – $50.94

Watch

Orin's take

0.72conviction · high

Refreshed 30 Aug · take v9. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Get emailed if this changes

Amcor's FY2026 results (fiscal year ended 2026-06-30) confirm the Berry Global acquisition is delivering: revenue surged 56.6% YoY to $23.5B, EPS grew 48.8% to $2.38, and operating margin expanded from 6.7% to 8.1% as synergy execution runs roughly 10% ahead of guidance. The stock trades at 19.5x trailing P/E — a 26.5% discount to the peer median of 26.6x — and 10.5x EV/EBITDA versus 12.4x for peers, while free cash flow improved to $1.23B, supporting a ~5.5% dividend yield.

With shares above both the 50-day ($44.88) and 200-day ($42.66) moving averages and management targeting ~3x leverage by end-2027, the re-rating path remains intact despite elevated post-deal debt of $15.08B.

What could go wrong

Elevated leverage. Total debt stands at $15.08B as of FY2026 (ended 2026-06-30), more than double the $7.19B in FY2024 pre-acquisition; deleveraging depends on sustained synergy realization and FCF generation.
Integration execution. Berry Global integration is still early; any shortfall in the targeted synergies or working capital recovery above $500M could pressure margins and the leverage timeline.
Input-cost inflation. Q4 2026 earnings call noted elevated input-cost inflation; if costs accelerate faster than pricing actions, margin expansion from 8.1% operating margin could stall.
Technical momentum softening. MACD histogram turned negative at -0.19 with the line below the signal as of 2026-08-28, suggesting near-term momentum has cooled despite the uptrend remaining intact.

What would change my mind

Leverage reduction. Net debt-to-EBITDA falls below 3.5x ahead of the end-2027 targetbullish

Synergy shortfall. Berry synergy realization falls below guidance or management lowers the synergy targetbearish

Dividend sustainability. FCF coverage of the dividend weakens below 1.5x or payout ratio exceeds 80% of net incomebearish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2026 + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2026 + FMP fundamentals FY2026 · FMP fundamentals FY2026 and FY2024 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on AMCR; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All AMCR filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
8-K	14 Aug	Amcor plc appointed PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, United States (PwC US) as its independent registered public accounting firm effective August 14, 2026, replacing…	read
10-K	14 Aug	Amcor plc reported net sales of $23.5 billion for fiscal year 2026, a 57% increase from $15.0 billion in fiscal year 2025, primarily driven by the acquisition of Berry Global Group, Inc.	read
13G	13 Aug	—	on file
8-K	12 Aug	Amcor plc reported fourth quarter and full-year results for the period ended June 30, 2026.	read
8-K	15 Jun	Fred Stephan, Division President, Global Flexible Packaging Solutions, will retire effective June 30, 2026, remaining as a special advisor until December 31, 2026.	read
13G	12 May	—	on file
10-Q	7 May	Amcor’s fiscal 3Q 2026 revenue of $5.914 billion rose 77% YoY and 6% QoQ, entirely driven by the April 30, 2025 Berry Global acquisition; organic sales declined 1% YoY on 2% lower volumes.	read
8-K	6 May	Amcor’s Board voted 1 May 2026 to shift its fiscal year-end from 30 June to 31 December, creating a six-month Transition Period starting 1 July 2026 and ending 31 December 2026…	read

Largest holders · 13F

Money flow

No 13F positioning on file.

Insiders, last 24 months: 204 Form 4 filings, net $111.8M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about AMCR

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about AMCR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days →

Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Consumer Cyclical

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	17.9×	18.9×	79.6×
EV/EBITDA	10.0×	12.3×	—
P/S	0.84×	1.01×	—
P/B	1.7×	3.6×	—

Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.58σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

4.8%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

14 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$48

$43 – $56 · +13% against today's price

How they rate it

8 buy or overweight
5 hold
1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 28.6× of 7 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
AMCRAmcor plc	$20B	17.9×	10.0×	20.0%	4.7%	9%
BALLBall Corporation	$16B	16.7×	10.5×	16.4%	6.6%	17%
BBYBest Buy Co., Inc.	$19B	15.1×	8.1×	22.7%	3.0%	43%
CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.	$22B	28.6×	16.9×	23.8%	4.1%	20%
GPCGenuine Parts Company	$18B	495.2×	32.4×	36.2%	0.1%	1%
IPInternational Paper Company	$19B	—	—	27.7%	-14.2%	-22%
PKGPackaging Corporation of America	$21B	31.2×	13.7×	20.1%	7.2%	15%
RLRalph Lauren Corporation	$21B	21.0×	14.8×	70.3%	11.8%	36%
SWSmurfit Westrock Plc	$24B	47.3×	8.6×	17.9%	1.6%	3%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 37.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY15 19.6×FY26 18.1×

What its sector has traded at

Consumer Cyclical

FY14 393.1×FY26 81.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $42.83

52-week range$36 – $51

Analyst targets$43 – $56

At own 5y-median P/E (19×)$45

At 5y P/E range (14–29×)$33 – $68

At sector P/E (80×)$190

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.