Amcor plc
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Amcor's FY2026 results (fiscal year ended 30 Jun) confirm the Berry Global merger is delivering: revenue grew 56.6% YoY to $23.5B, EPS rose 48.8% to $2.38, and operating margin expanded from 6.7% to 8.1%.
The stock trades at 16.5x trailing P/E — a 32.2% discount to the peer median of 24.3x — with $1.23B in free cash flow supporting both the dividend and the deleveraging path from $15.08B in total debt. Consistent earnings beats (four consecutive positive surprises) and positive MACD momentum (histogram 0.37) reinforce the case, though the elevated post-merger leverage remains the principal overhang.
What could go wrong
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $15.08B as of FY2026 (ended 30 Jun) is more than double the $7.19B carried in FY2024 pre-merger; any delay in synergy realization or cash-flow degradation pressures the balance sheet.
- Margin compression risk. Gross margin of 20.0% in FY2026 remains below the 19.9% level of FY2024 and well below the 20%+ historical range, indicating integration costs or input-cost pass-through lags.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Quarterly revenue YoY growth has decelerated from 77.4% in Q3 FY2026 to 25.9% in Q4 FY2026 as the Berry merger anniversary effect fades, raising questions about organic growth trajectory.
- Technical resistance near 50-day MA. Last close of $43.95 sits just below the 50-day moving average of $44.13; failure to reclaim could signal further consolidation.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison, 19 Oct · earnings vs estimates. Orin's read on AMCR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 11.1% over twelve months, from $41.35 on 27 Oct 2025 to $45.94 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $50.58 on 23 Feb 2026; the last close is 9.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 46.5M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AMCR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $651.1M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $594.7M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $278.8M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $264.2M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $261.1M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $239.1M | 0.0% |
| Wellington Management Group | $228.9M | 0.0% |
74 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 207 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $2.7M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AMCR
Orin answers questions about AMCR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 19.0×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.8×below usual | 19.0× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 0.88×below usual | 1.00× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3×below usual | 11.0× | — |
| P/B | 1.8×below usual | 3.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $48.38 (from $43 to $56) — 5% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$48.38
$43 – $56 · +5% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (BALL 18.2×, PKG 31.0×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMCRAmcor plc | $21B | 16.8× | 10.3× | 19.3% | 4.6% | 9% |
| BALLBall Corporation | $17B | 18.2× | 11.1× | 16.4% | 6.6% | 17% |
| PKGPackaging Corporation of America | $23B | 31.0× | 13.7× | 20.5% | 7.4% | 16% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $113 a share — 147% above the $45.81 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $113 | 147% above $45.81 |
| Levered | $99 | 116% above $45.81 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.