Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD
AMD's FY2025 fundamentals are exceptional — revenue grew 34% to $34.6B and EPS surged to $2.65 from $1.00 — and smart money has turned sharply bullish with a score of 0.8615 as of Q2 2026, up from -0.0279 in Q1 2026. However, at 118x earnings (a 133% premium to the peer median of 51x) with the stock at $466 trading below its 50-day MA of $510, the valuation and near-term momentum leave little room for error.
Insiders have net sold $480M over 24 months, and while the AI growth story is genuine, the risk/reward at this price warrants patience rather than conviction.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. P/E of 118x sits 133% above the peer median of 51x; any growth deceleration or guidance miss could trigger sharp multiple contraction given how much is already priced in.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders have net sold $480M in shares over the trailing 24 months across 292 dispositions versus 135 acquisitions, signaling those closest to the business are steadily de-risking.
- Near-term technical weakness. Stock at $466 is trading below its 50-day MA of $510 with RSI at 44, suggesting momentum has turned negative even as the longer-term trend above the 200-day MA of $328 remains intact.
- Operating margin gap. Operating margin of 10.66% in FY2025 lags well behind the gross margin of 49.52%, reflecting heavy R&D and operating spend to compete in AI; failure to close this gap would constrain earnings leverage.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 and FY2024 annual fundamentals · smart_money as of 2026-06-30 · peer_relative as of 2026-08-19 · technicals as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on AMD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AMD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $61.9B | 1.3% of fund |
| State Street | $43.2B | 1.3% of fund |
| Invesco | $30.9B | 2.4% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $22.9B | 1.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $22.0B | 1.0% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $21.7B | 1.2% of fund |
230 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 508 Form 4 filings, net −$574.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 45 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 156.0× | 80.5× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 93.4× | 42.1× | — |
| P/S | 24.26× | 10.08× | — |
| P/B | 14.9× | 4.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.41σ from its own mean).
35.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $6.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$598
$260 – $1250 · −3% against today's price
- 50 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $1.00T | 156.0× | 93.4× | 53.2% | 15.6% | 10% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $355B | 342.8× | 256.8× | 95.3% | 20.2% | 13% |
| ASMLASML Holding N.V. | $672B | 55.0× | 42.0× | 52.7% | 30.1% | 52% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $245B | 51.0× | 43.4× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.21T | 23.9× | 17.4× | 72.6% | 55.9% | 71% |
| PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc. | $440B | 152.2× | 141.5× | 84.8% | 49.0% | 37% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $207B | 22.5× | 16.2× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $249B | 41.2× | 28.5× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 205.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $49 | $452.40 · −89% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $49 | $452.40 · −89% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.