Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
AMD's AI-driven revenue acceleration is undeniable — Q2 2026 revenue grew 50.1% YoY to $11.5B with EPS of $1.66 beating consensus of $1.62, and FY2025 revenue grew 34.3% with EPS of $2.65 — but at a PE of 154.34 versus a peer median of 29.56, the stock trades at a 422% premium that leaves no room for error.
The RSI of 57.19 is neutral and the stock sits well above its 50-day ($528.92) and 200-day ($385.32) moving averages, but persistent insider selling ($363M net over 24 months) and a smart money score of just 0.23 as of Q2 2026 suggest limited conviction at these levels. With unconditional commitments rising to approximately $30B from $12B, the long-term AI demand narrative is strong, but the extreme valuation premium warrants a hold pending evidence that growth can sustain the multiple.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. PE of 154.34 sits 422% above the peer median of 29.56; any growth deceleration could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $363M over 24 months with only 1 acquisition transaction across 508 total transactions signal no insider conviction at current prices.
- Supply constraints. CEO Lisa Su indicated plans to 'substantially increase' supply in 2027; if supply cannot meet demand commitments, revenue growth could fall short of expectations.
- Competitive pressure from Nvidia. Recent commentary notes Nvidia's growth is set to outpace AMD's, and AMD's EV/EBITDA of 92.44 is far above Nvidia's 23.81, raising the bar for justifying the premium.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results and earnings vs estimates · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · technicals, 9 Oct. Orin's read on AMD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 116% over twelve months, from $259.67 on 27 Oct 2025 to $560.26 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $649.42 on 6 Oct 2026; the last close is 13.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 108.9M, on 12 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All AMD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $87.3B | 1.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $61.9B | 1.3% |
| State Street | $43.2B | 1.3% |
| Invesco | $30.9B | 2.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $22.9B | 1.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $22.0B | 1.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $21.7B | 1.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $20.9B | 2.1% |
| FMR | $14.8B | 0.6% |
| Morgan Stanley | $14.1B | 0.7% |
233 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 519 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$372.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 45 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AMD
Orin answers questions about AMD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 142× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 80.5×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 142×above usual | 80.5× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 22.1×above usual | 10.1× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 85.3×above usual | 42.1× | — |
| P/B | 13.6× | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 1.8× to 23.6× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $626 (from $340 to $1,250) — 12% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$626
$340 – $1,250 · +12% against the last close
- 32 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 142× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 34.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $915B | 142× | 85.3× | 53.2% | 15.6% | 10% |
| ALABAstera Labs, Inc. Common Stock | $50B | 132× | 149× | 75.1% | 30.7% | 25% |
| ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $178B | 192× | 135× | 95.4% | 17.1% | 11% |
| AVGOBroadcom Inc. | $1.63T | 42.5× | 31.9× | 68.8% | 42.9% | 44% |
| INTCIntel Corporation | $496B | lost money | 145× | 38.9% | −19.8% | −11% |
| LSCCLattice Semiconductor Corporation | $15B | 391× | 165× | 67.7% | 5.6% | 5% |
| NVDANVIDIA Corporation | $5.25T | 27.4× | 22.5× | 74.7% | 63.7% | 110% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $167B | 12.2× | 15.2× | 53.1% | 31.6% | 50% |
| TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | $2.27T | 24.4× | 16.3× | 65.8% | 51.5% | 41% |
| UMCUnited Microelectronics Corporation | $49B | 19.1× | 9.9× | 30.6% | 33.3% | 21% |
- INTC: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 142× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now142×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $47 a share — 92% below the $559.08 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $47 | 92% below $559.08 |
| Levered | $47 | 92% below $559.08 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.