Orin
AMENYSE·Industrial - Machinery

AMETEK, Inc. AME

Market cap $57.5BP/E 36.1× trailingGross margin 36.6%Reports Thu 29 Oct, before the open
$250.74
+3.00 (+1.21%)live 11:30 ET
52-wk $179.24 – $261.16
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 19 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

AMETEK delivered record Q2 2026 results with double-digit organic sales growth, margin expansion, and raised full-year guidance, reinforcing the durable quality franchise that grew FY2025 revenue to $7.40B with a 26.15% operating margin and $1.67B in free cash flow. However, at a PE of 36.39 — an 8.66% premium to the peer median of 33.49 — and a price-to-sales of 7.29 versus a peer median of 3.29, the valuation already discounts much of that execution.

Smart money sentiment improved to 0.0862 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 and RSI has cooled to 54.77, but insiders remain net sellers over the trailing 24 months (-185,831 shares, -$24.3M), keeping the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling at $249.99.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation stretch. PE of 36.39 sits 8.66% above the peer median of 33.49, and price-to-sales of 7.29 is 121% above the peer median of 3.29, leaving little room for any execution misstep.
  • Insider distribution. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 185,831 shares for -$24.3M in net value, including option exercises and same-day sales by segment presidents.
  • Cyclical demand exposure. EIG serves oil and gas, petrochemical, and semiconductor markets that are cyclical; any demand softening could pressure the double-digit organic growth trajectory highlighted in Q2 2026 results.
  • DCF gap. A GuruFocus DCF analysis published August 5, 2026 estimated intrinsic value at $152 versus a then-price of $254, suggesting significant downside if growth assumptions moderate.

What would change my mind

Margin compression signal. Operating margin falls below 25% in a reported quarter, reversing the multi-year expansion from 23.59% (FY2021) to 26.15% (FY2025)bearish
Valuation re-rating. PE contracts toward or below the peer median of 33.49 while fundamentals remain intact, improving the risk/rewardbullish
Smart money acceleration. Smart money score rises meaningfully above the current 0.0862 with increasing fund count, signaling institutional accumulationbullish
Guidance cut. Management lowers full-year sales or earnings outlook after having raised it at Q2 2026, indicating demand decelerationbearish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · MarketBeat news, 2026-08-04 · peer_relative · smart_money. Orin's read on AME; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$3.6B0.1% of fund
State Street$2.5B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$2.4B0.1% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$1.6B0.2% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.5B0.1% of fund
Norges Bank$1.0B0.1% of fund

100 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 138 Form 4 filings, net −$24.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E36.1×30.3×44.5×
EV/EBITDA24.2×20.2×—
P/S7.22×6.01×—
P/B5.0×4.4×—

Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.38σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

14.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

30 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$271

$230 – $316 · +8% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 20 buy or overweight
  • 10 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 32.6× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
AMEAMETEK, Inc.$57B36.1×24.2×36.6%20.0%15%
CARRCarrier Global Corporation$45B37.8×20.5×24.3%5.5%9%
FASTFastenal Company$58B43.0×29.9×44.7%15.5%34%
GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc.$60B32.6×21.2×39.4%9.9%49%
OTISOtis Worldwide Corporation$25B17.1×13.8×30.2%10.2%-27%
ROKRockwell Automation, Inc.$48B40.5×28.9×54.5%13.4%33%
ROPRoper Technologies, Inc.$37B15.1×10.6×69.5%30.2%13%
XYLXylem Inc.$24B24.4×13.8×39.2%11.1%9%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 10.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 22.0×FY25 32.0×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$180$222.73 · −19%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$192$222.73 · −14%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $250.74
52-week range$179 – $261
Analyst targets$230 – $316
Standard DCF$180 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $222.73
Levered DCF$192 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $222.73
At own 5y-median P/E (30×)$208
At 5y P/E range (28–34×)$192 – $236
At sector P/E (45×)$306

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.