Orin
AMPNYSE·Asset Management

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. AMP

Market cap $45.5BP/E 12.0× trailingGross margin 50.2%Reports Thu 29 Oct, before the open
$505.60
+2.81 (+0.56%)live 09:30 ET
52-wk $422.37 – $572.56
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 20 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Ameriprise trades at an attractive 13.3x P/E, a 17% discount to the peer median of 16.1x, supported by FY2025 EPS of $36.36 (up 10% YoY) and a stable 25.5% operating margin. However, revenue growth decelerated to 5.2% in FY2025 from 11.6% in FY2024, net income growth slowed to 4.8%, and FY2025 operating cash flow fell to $2.89B from $6.60B the prior year, raising questions about earnings quality.

With the stock at $559.78 — roughly 9% above the 50-day MA of $512.61 and 16% above the 200-day MA — and a bearish MACD histogram, the risk/reward is balanced; the discount to peers is real but the deceleration and cash flow softness warrant patience.

What could go wrong

  • OCF deterioration. FY2025 operating cash flow fell to $2.89B from $6.60B in FY2024 despite net income rising to $3.56B, suggesting earnings quality concerns that could pressure the multiple if not reversed.
  • Growth deceleration. Revenue growth slowed to 5.2% in FY2025 from 11.6% in FY2024, and net income growth dropped to 4.8% from 33.1%, indicating the post-2023 rebound is fading.
  • Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 188,557 shares worth $127.6M across 126 dispositions vs 74 acquisitions, with no cluster buying; recent August 2026 transactions continue the pattern.
  • Extended technicals. Stock trades 9% above the 50-day MA ($512.61) and 16% above the 200-day MA ($481.65) with a negative MACD histogram of -1.95, suggesting near-term pullback risk.

What would change my mind

OCF recovery in Q3 2026 results. Q3 2026 quarterly operating cash flow shows meaningful recovery toward prior-year run rates, confirming the FY2025 decline was transitorybullish
Revenue reacceleration. Quarterly revenue growth returns to double digits, driven by AUM expansion and advisor recruitmentbullish
MACD bearish crossover confirmed. MACD line remains below signal line with expanding negative histogram and stock breaks below the 50-day MA of $512.61bearish

Where this comes from: peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics. Orin's read on AMP; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$2.7B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$2.4B0.1% of fund
State Street$2.1B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.3B0.1% of fund
Morgan Stanley$800.0M0.0% of fund
Goldman Sachs Group$753.8M0.1% of fund

94 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 200 Form 4 filings, net −$126.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about AMP

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Financial Services
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E12.0×13.1×21.6×
EV/EBITDA7.5×9.2×
P/S2.28×2.49×
P/B7.3×8.5×

Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.98σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

4.3%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

22 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$557

$489$645 · +10% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 11 buy or overweight
  • 10 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 15.6× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.$45B12.0×7.5×50.2%19.9%62%
AIGAmerican International Group, Inc.$40B13.7×6.3×38.1%11.1%7%
APOApollo Global Management, Inc.$72B26.9×6.2×84.5%5.2%9%
MSMorgan Stanley$313B16.0×23.1×59.7%16.0%18%
NTRSNorthern Trust Corporation$32B14.9×59.8%14.8%17%
PRUPrudential Financial, Inc.$41B10.5×8.8×30.8%5.9%12%
SCHWThe Charles Schwab Corporation$173B18.0×11.0×86.7%33.6%20%
STTState Street Corporation$50B15.6×14.8×65.3%15.0%12%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 23.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 15.7×FY25 13.3×

What its sector has traded at

Financial Services
FY14 29.6×FY26 23.9×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$616$451.80 · +36%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$871$451.80 · +93%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $505.60
52-week range$422 – $573
Analyst targets$489 – $645
Standard DCF$616 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $451.80
Levered DCF$871 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $451.80
At own 5y-median P/E (13×)$551
At 5y P/E range (11–16×)$463 – $665
At sector P/E (22×)$906

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.