Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Ameriprise Financial is an oversold, high-quality asset manager trading at a 25% P/E discount to peers (11.7x vs 15.7x peer median) with reaccelerating top-line growth.
Q2 2026 revenue grew 11.5% YoY to $5.01B with EPS of $11.98, extending a streak of consistent earnings beats, while FY2025 free cash flow margin reached 43.2% on $8.16B of FCF. With RSI at 28.5 and the stock at $493 — essentially at its 200-day MA of $493.06 and roughly 10% below its 50-day MA of $546.63 — the recent pullback creates a tactical entry at a compelling valuation with fundamentally improving momentum.
What could go wrong
- Insider selling pressure. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 186,742 shares worth $126.7M across 126 dispositions versus 74 acquisitions, a persistent skew toward selling.
- Smart money turning negative. The smart money score flipped from +0.038 in Q1 2026 to -0.002 as of Q2 2026, with fund count declining from 63 to 61, suggesting institutional conviction is fading.
- Revenue growth volatility. FY2025 revenue growth decelerated to 5.2% from 11.6% in FY2024; if the Q2 2026 reacceleration to 11.5% does not sustain into H2, the valuation discount could widen further.
- Technical breakdown below 200-day MA. The stock is testing its 200-day MA at $493.06 with a deeply negative MACD histogram of -7.98; a decisive break below this level could trigger further downside.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 25 Sep. Orin's read on AMP; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 1.7% over twelve months, from $484.63 on 27 Oct 2025 to $492.85 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $570.68 on 13 Aug 2026; the last close is 13.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 2.7M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AMP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $800.0M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $753.8M | 0.1% |
| AQR Capital Management | $607.5M | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $591.9M | 0.1% |
| FMR | $531.0M | 0.0% |
97 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 200 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$71.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AMP
Orin answers questions about AMP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 11.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 13.3×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.7×below usual | 13.3× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 2.20×below usual | 2.49× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2×below usual | 9.4× | — |
| P/B | 7.1×below usual | 8.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $547 (from $483 to $645) — 11% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$547
$483 – $645 · +11% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 11.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 14.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc. | $44B | 11.7× | 7.2× | 50.2% | 19.9% | 62% |
| BLKBlackRock, Inc. | $176B | 25.5× | 16.0× | 65.0% | 24.2% | 12% |
| MSMorgan Stanley | $295B | 14.7× | n/a | n/a | 15.8% | 18% |
| NTRSNorthern Trust Corporation | $31B | 13.3× | n/a | n/a | 15.9% | 18% |
| PFGPrincipal Financial Group, Inc. | $24B | 15.9× | 8.5× | n/a | 9.9% | 13% |
| PRUPrudential Financial, Inc. | $40B | 10.3× | 8.6× | n/a | 5.9% | 12% |
| RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc. | $30B | 13.5× | n/a | n/a | 13.6% | 18% |
| SCHWThe Charles Schwab Corporation | $154B | 15.2× | n/a | n/a | 34.2% | 21% |
| TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22B | 10.4× | 6.2× | 70.7% | 29.3% | 20% |
- MS, NTRS, PFG, PRU, RJF, SCHW: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- MS, NTRS, RJF, SCHW: EV/EBITDA is not used (n/a) for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 11.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now11.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $560 a share — 13% above the $494.14 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $560 | 13% above $494.14 |
| Levered | $1,717 | 247% above $494.14 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.