Ameresco, Inc. AMRC
Ameresco remains a show-me story where the bull case—a $1.5B AI/data center backlog and a cluster insider buy by four insiders totaling ~$1.7M in August 2026—collides with persistent operational deterioration. FY2025 diluted EPS fell to $0.83, the fourth consecutive annual decline from $1.78 in 2022, while FCF margin stayed deeply negative at -22.6% and total debt climbed to $1.95B.
At 41.8x trailing earnings versus a peer median of 12.4x, the stock prices in backlog conversion that has yet to reach the income statement or cash flow statement, and the sudden CFO departure effective September 25, 2026 adds execution risk at exactly the wrong moment. The stock at $22.16 trades well below both its 50-day ($24.84) and 200-day ($28.85) moving averages, and until margins and free cash flow inflect positively, this stays a hold.
What could go wrong
- Backlog conversion stalls. The $1.5B awarded data center backlog cited in news may not convert to contracted revenue or earnings, leaving the 41.8x PE unsupported.
- Leverage and interest burden. Total debt reached $1.95B at FY2025 year-end with FCF at -$436M; rising interest costs could further compress net margin, already down to 2.29% from 5.8% in 2021.
- CFO transition risk. CFO Mark Chiplock departs September 25, 2026, creating uncertainty in financial execution during a critical backlog-conversion period.
- Persistent negative free cash flow. FCF has been negative for five consecutive fiscal years, with capex of $356M in FY2025 against operating cash flow of -$80M, limiting financial flexibility.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals / derived_metrics · FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on AMRC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AMRC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $93.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $44.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Millennium Management | $41.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $39.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| D. E. Shaw & | $34.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $25.2M | 0.0% of fund |
40 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 256 Form 4 filings, net $13.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 13 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AMRC
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 42.9× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.4× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.60× | — | — |
| P/B | 0.9× | — | — |
What Wall Street published
$45
$36 – $62 · +97% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMRCAmeresco, Inc. | $1B | 42.9× | 12.4× | 16.1% | 1.4% | 2% |
| CECOCECO Environmental Corp. | $4B | — | 286.9× | 32.7% | -3.0% | -4% |
| EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp. | $2B | 20.2× | 12.8× | 49.0% | 14.7% | 22% |
| HUBGHub Group, Inc. | $2B | 23.3× | 9.4× | 56.9% | 2.9% | 5% |
| LGNLegence Corp. Class A Common stock | $6B | — | 37.9× | 16.7% | -1.2% | -10% |
| PSIXPower Solutions International, Inc. | $1B | 15.9× | 11.9× | 23.7% | 10.0% | 37% |
| UPWKUpwork Inc. | $1B | 10.2× | 5.4× | 77.2% | 12.9% | 17% |
| WLDNWilldan Group, Inc. | $1B | 18.4× | 16.1× | 37.8% | 8.8% | 21% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 133.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.