Ameresco, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Ameresco remains a show-me story where top-line growth and insider conviction collide with deteriorating profitability and persistently negative free cash flow.
FY2025 revenue grew 9.2% to $1.93B but diluted EPS fell 22.4% to $0.83 from $1.07, and Q1 2026 posted a loss of $0.35 per share, though Q2 2026 rebounded to $0.18—still below the prior-year $0.24. At 36.8x trailing earnings versus a peer median of 15.6x, the stock prices in a margin recovery that has not yet materialized, while the 0.51x PS ratio versus a peer median of 1.57x reflects deep market skepticism on bottom-line conversion. A cluster buy by four insiders totaling ~$1.9M in August 2026 and recent contract wins including a $42M Columbia, MO metering project and U.S. Army energy resilience selections are encouraging, but with FY2025 FCF margin at -22.6%, total debt at $1.95B, and the stock at $19.50 trading below both its 50-day ($22.86) and 200-day ($27.05) moving averages, this stays a hold until EPS and FCF inflect positively.
What could go wrong
- Profitability erosion. Diluted EPS has declined for three consecutive years—from $1.78 in FY2022 to $0.83 in FY2025—and Q1 2026 posted a loss of $0.35 per share, indicating margin pressure persists despite revenue growth.
- Negative free cash flow. FY2025 FCF was -$436M with an FCF margin of -22.6%, and FCF has been negative every year in the provided data, raising concerns about capital intensity and project financing.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt rose to $1.95B at FY2025 from $1.70B in FY2024 and $0.50B in FY2021, against stockholders' equity of $1.08B, increasing financial risk if interest rates remain elevated.
- Valuation disconnect. At 36.8x trailing earnings versus a peer median of 15.6x—a 136% premium—the stock requires a sustained earnings inflection to justify its multiple, yet net income fell 22.0% in FY2025.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · insider trades, 28 Aug. Orin's read on AMRC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 52.1% over twelve months, from $41.55 on 27 Oct 2025 to $19.92 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $41.55 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 52.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.0M, on 4 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AMRC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Management Group | $93.1M | 0.0% |
| BlackRock | $73.2M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $44.2M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $41.0M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $39.5M | 0.0% |
| D. E. Shaw | $34.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $25.2M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $23.8M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $17.9M | 0.0% |
| Royal Bank of Canada | $11.6M | 0.0% |
41 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 234 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $157K. Of the 50 on hand, 13 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AMRC
Orin answers questions about AMRC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 37.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 31.2×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 37.6×above usual | 31.2× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 0.52×below usual | 1.20× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8×below usual | 19.9× | — |
| P/B | 0.8×below usual | 1.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $44.67 (from $36 to $62) — 124% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$44.67
$36 – $62 · +124% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 37.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 16.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMRCAmeresco, Inc. | $1B | 37.6× | 11.8× | 16.1% | 1.4% | 2% |
| CECOCECO Environmental Corp. | $3B | lost money | 130× | 32.7% | −3.0% | −4% |
| EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp. | $2B | 19.9× | 12.6× | 49.0% | 14.7% | 22% |
| HUBGHub Group, Inc. | $2B | 30.5× | 11.9× | 43.6% | 2.9% | 3% |
| LGNLegence Corp. Class A Common stock | $5B | lost money | 31.1× | 16.7% | −1.2% | −10% |
| PSIXPower Solutions International, Inc. | $827M | 11.8× | 8.1× | 36.4% | 14.9% | 35% |
| UPWKUpwork Inc. | $1B | 11.3× | 6.2× | 77.2% | 12.9% | 17% |
| WLDNWilldan Group, Inc. | $1B | 16.6× | 14.9× | 38.2% | 8.2% | 19% |
- CECO, LGN: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 37.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now37.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.