American Tower Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
American Tower's technical and fundamental picture has improved materially since the prior hold call: the stock has recovered to $185.27 (as of 16 Oct), trading above both its 50-day ($173.51) and 200-day ($176.86) moving averages with a bullish MACD histogram of 2.14, while FY2025 revenue grew 5.1% to $10.65B with operating margin expansion to 45.9% and FCF of $3.78B.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in every recent quarter — Q2 2026 actual EPS of $1.86 vs. $1.57 estimated (18.5% surprise) and Q1 2026 $1.84 vs. $1.60 (15% surprise) — and trades at a 59.7% P/E discount and 13.9% EV/EBITDA discount to REIT peers, making the risk/reward attractive as earnings momentum and reaccelerating revenue growth compound into a recovering technical trend.
What could go wrong
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $44.96B against stockholders' equity of $3.65B as of FY2025 creates a highly leveraged balance sheet vulnerable to interest rate movements and refinancing risk.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 112,674 shares for -$21.5M across 20 dispositions vs. 3 acquisitions, signaling limited insider conviction at current levels.
- RSI approaching overbought. RSI-14 at 67.8 as of 16 Oct suggests the stock's recent rally may be extended in the near term, raising the risk of a pullback after a sharp run from prior levels.
- Stale smart money data. Smart money score of 0.05 as of 30 Jun is improving but modest, and Q3 2026 13F filings are not yet complete (deadline 14 Nov), so institutional positioning may shift.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates, 28 Jul · technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on AMT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 3.1% over twelve months, from $189.73 on 27 Oct 2025 to $183.83 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $194.12 on 5 Jun 2026; the last close is 5.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 8.9M, on 23 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AMT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $7.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.6B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $3.6B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Lazard Asset Management | $1.4B | 2.1% |
| Invesco | $1.2B | 0.1% |
125 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 74 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$21.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 9 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AMT
Orin answers questions about AMT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 25.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 51.4×); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.9×below usual | 51.4× | 42.4× |
| P/S | 7.78×below usual | 10.0× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.6×below usual | 21.7× | — |
| P/B | 24.3×near usual | 24.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $210 (from $188 to $240) — 14% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$210
$188 – $240 · +14% against the last close
- 15 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 25.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 64.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMTAmerican Tower Corporation | $86B | 25.9× | 17.6× | n/a | 29.9% | 91% |
| CCICrown Castle Inc. | $38B | 36.6× | 23.0× | n/a | 25.3% | n/m |
| DLRDigital Realty Trust, Inc. | $66B | 82.5× | 24.3× | n/a | 11.7% | 3% |
| EQIXEquinix, Inc. | $99B | 64.1× | 26.9× | n/a | 15.6% | 11% |
| IRMIron Mountain Incorporated | $31B | 68.5× | 13.8× | n/a | 5.9% | n/m |
| SBACSBA Communications Corporation | $20B | 19.8× | 17.1× | n/a | 34.5% | n/m |
- CCI, IRM, SBAC: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- AMT, CCI, DLR, EQIX, IRM, SBAC: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 25.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now25.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $189 a share — 2% above the $184.65 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $189 | 2% above $184.65 |
| Levered | $124 | 33% below $184.65 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.