Orin
AMTNYSE·REIT - Specialty

American Tower Corporation AMT

Market cap $79.6BP/E 23.5× trailingGross margin 73.2%Reports Tue 27 Oct, before the open
$170.79
+0.01 (+0.01%)live 09:30 ET
52-wk $160.06 – $197.41
Watch
Orin's take
0.68conviction · moderate
Refreshed 25 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

American Tower's FY2025 results show accelerating revenue growth of 5.1% to $10.65B with operating margin expansion to 45.85% and robust FCF of $3.78B, while the stock trades at a 22% P/E discount and 12% EV/EBITDA discount to REIT peers (24.5x vs. 31.4x median; 18.0x vs. 20.3x). Technicals have turned constructive — the stock at $178.57 sits above both its 50-day ($171.56) and 200-day ($177.87) moving averages with a bullish MACD histogram and RSI at 60 — while recent 13F filings show new institutional positions being established.

The extreme leverage profile ($44.96B debt against $3.65B equity) and persistent insider net selling (-$30.6M over 24 months) temper conviction, but the combination of fundamental improvement, relative cheapness, and technical recovery supports accumulation at current levels.

What could go wrong

  • Extreme leverage. Total debt of $44.96B against stockholders' equity of just $3.65B leaves the balance sheet highly sensitive to rising rates or any revenue contraction.
  • Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders recorded 45 dispositions versus 27 acquisitions for net selling of $30.6M, signalling continued caution from leadership.
  • Declining smart money score. Smart money score fell from 0.0477 as of 2026-03-31 to 0.0195 as of 2026-06-30, suggesting institutional enthusiasm may be fading.
  • Rate sensitivity. As a heavily leveraged REIT, any renewed spike in long-term interest rates could pressure the cost of capital and compress the equity valuation.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 earnings. Revenue growth reaccelerates above 5% YoY with operating margin expanding beyond 46%bullish
Deleveraging announcement. Management announces meaningful debt paydown or asset sale to reduce total debt below $43Bbullish
Rate-driven multiple compression. 10-year Treasury yield rises sharply, pressuring REIT valuations and AMT's interest expensebearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-25. Orin's read on AMT; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$5.0B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$4.6B0.2% of fund
State Street$3.6B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$2.3B0.1% of fund
Fmr$1.9B0.1% of fund
Morgan Stanley$1.6B0.1% of fund

122 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 72 Form 4 filings, net −$30.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 11 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about AMT

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about AMT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days

Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Real Estate
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E23.5×51.4×56.8×
EV/EBITDA17.5×21.7×
P/S7.27×10.05×
P/B21.4×24.0×

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.03σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

8.4%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

50 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$210

$188$240 · +23% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 41 buy or overweight
  • 9 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 29.1× of 8 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
AMTAmerican Tower Corporation$80B23.5×17.5×73.2%30.9%90%
CCICrown Castle Inc.$31B28.4×19.5×63.2%25.8%-52%
DLRDigital Realty Trust, Inc.$67B83.6×24.5×13.8%11.7%3%
EQIXEquinix, Inc.$102B66.5×27.8×51.6%15.6%11%
ORealty Income Corporation$52B40.6×12.2×68.6%22.3%3%
PLDPrologis, Inc.$125B29.8×19.1×29.1%45.8%8%
PSAPublic Storage$53B27.3×18.7×60.4%41.8%22%
SBACSBA Communications Corporation$18B18.3×15.7×63.9%34.5%-21%
SPGSimon Property Group, Inc.$66B14.4×12.1×84.6%66.4%109%

The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 19.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 48.9×FY25 32.5×

What its sector has traded at

Real Estate
FY14 44.0×FY26 52.3×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$238$192.00 · +24%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$161$192.00 · −16%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $170.79
52-week range$160 – $197
Analyst targets$188 – $240
Standard DCF$238 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $192.00
Levered DCF$161 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $192.00
At own 5y-median P/E (51×)$374
At 5y P/E range (33–68×)$237 – $494
At sector P/E (57×)$413

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.