Amazon.com, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Amazon's Q2 2026 revenue accelerated to $200.6B (+19.6% YoY), up from 13.3% in the year-ago quarter, while FY2025 operating margin expanded to 11.2% with EPS of $7.17 (up 29.7% YoY) — all available at a P/E of 20.83, roughly 32.7% below the peer median of 30.95.
The central tension is FCF compression to $7.7B against $131.8B in FY2025 capex, but the accelerating top line, consistent earnings beats (Q2 2026 actual EPS $5.75 vs. estimate $1.82; Q1 2026 actual $2.78 vs. estimate $1.63), and improving smart money scores (0.48 as of Q2 2026, up from 0.38 in Q4 2025) suggest this capex surge is productive AWS and AI investment rather than deterioration. The stock at $262.43 sits above both its 50-day MA ($259.10) and 200-day MA ($242.15) with a bullish MACD histogram of +1.43, presenting a constructive technical setup alongside fundamental momentum.
What could go wrong
- FCF compression from capex surge. FY2025 free cash flow collapsed to $7.7B (FCF margin 1.1%) from $32.9B (5.2%) in FY2024 as capex reached $131.8B; if this investment fails to generate commensurate returns, FCF could remain depressed for an extended period.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders disposed 170 transactions with zero open-market acquisitions, netting -26.8M shares worth -$6.1B; Bezos, Herrington, and Zapolsky all sold or transferred shares in August–September 2026.
- Valuation gap on PS basis. AMZN trades at 3.64x sales versus a peer median of 1.28x (184% premium), meaning the cheap P/E depends on sustained margin expansion; any operating margin reversion would compress earnings and raise the effective multiple.
- Q2 2026 net income anomaly. Q2 2026 net income of $62.6B on $200.6B revenue implies a 31.2% net margin, far above the FY2025 full-year net margin of 10.8%, suggesting a one-time gain that may not repeat and could distort trailing earnings comparisons.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · earnings vs estimates, Q2 2026. Orin's read on AMZN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 11.5% over twelve months, from $226.97 on 27 Oct 2025 to $253.10 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $284.02 on 3 Aug 2026; the last close is 10.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 248.4M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AMZN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $178.4B | 2.7% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $151.5B | 3.2% |
| State Street | $94.7B | 2.8% |
| FMR | $87.2B | 3.8% |
| Geode Capital Management | $55.4B | 3.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $42.8B | 2.3% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $40.3B | 2.2% |
| Invesco | $34.3B | 2.7% |
| Norges Bank | $33.5B | 3.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $29.0B | 1.3% |
353 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 393 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$6.1B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 19 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AMZN
Orin answers questions about AMZN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 20.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 44.6×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NASDAQ is at 82.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.1×below usual | 44.6× | 82.5× |
| P/S | 3.52×near usual | 3.43× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.3×below usual | 19.0× | — |
| P/B | 4.9×below usual | 7.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $334 (from $300 to $390) — 32% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$334
$300 – $390 · +32% against the last close
- 38 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 20.1× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (EBAY 23.9×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. | $2.73T | 20.1× | 11.3× | 50.8% | 17.4% | 30% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | $52B | 23.9× | 18.2× | 72.5% | 18.5% | 48% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 20.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now20.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 82.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now82.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $50 a share — 80% below the $253.46 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $50 | 80% below $253.46 |
| Levered | $41 | 84% below $253.46 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.