AMZN · Orin

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Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail

Amazon.com, Inc.AMZN

$244.39+6.89 · +2.90%

As of 6/18/2026, 8:00:01 PM · Market cap $2628.93B · 52w $196.00–$278.56

buyCONF 0.70

Buy 85Hold 8Sell 1

Analyst target$307.29

Implied upside+25.7%

LineCandles

1M3M6M1YALL

scroll = zoom · drag = pan · double-click = reset · — 50d ┄ 200d MA · ▲ earningsCharts by TradingView

P/E (TTM)

29.1

Rev growth

+12%

Gross margin

50.3%

FCF margin

1.1%

Net income

$77.67B

Total debt

$152.99B

Thesis

deepseek/deepseek-v4

Amazon is a buy. Revenue grew 12% to $717B in 2025 and operating income rose 17% to $80B, demonstrating strong execution across retail and AWS. The company is investing aggressively with $132B in capex, compressing free cash flow to $7.7B, but this builds a leading AI infrastructure position reflected in a $464B backlog. The stock's breakout above $250 and rising smart-money accumulation support further upside.

Capex ROI

The $132B annual capex may not generate adequate returns if AI demand softens, prolonging FCF compression.

Free Cash Flow

FCF fell to $7.7B in 2025 from $32.9B, limiting financial flexibility and potential shareholder returns.

Insider Selling

CEO Jassy and other executives have been net sellers, with Jassy selling $8.6M in May 2026, potentially signaling caution.

Consumer Slowdown

A macroeconomic downturn could pressure the retail segment, which still drives the majority of revenue.

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Technicals

Neutral

last cross: golden 2026-05-06

Valuation

29× P/E

20th pct of its own history

Smart money

2.2

institutional composite 0–10

Insiders

$-5.77B

net, last 24mo (94 buys / 236 sells)

Short interest

0.9%

of float sold short

What most people miss

rule-derived · no AI

Golden cross on 2026-05-06

The 50d average crossed above the 200d — the classic long-trend confirmation.

Price assumes 48%/yr cash-flow growth

Reverse DCF: a decade of high growth is already in the price. The bet is on beating that bar, not on growth existing.

Earns less than a treasury today

Earnings yield trails the 10Y by 1.0pts — you're paying for the future, not the present.

1Y vs S&P 500

stock +15.0% · SPY +25.0% · lagging

Both lines indexed to 100 one year ago — the gap is your real edge (or drag) vs just buying the index.

Research only, not investment advice. Orin publishes general research output; your investment decisions are your own.