Arista Networks, Inc. ANET
Arista Networks' FY2025 results — $9.0B revenue at 28.6% YoY growth, 42.8% operating margins, and $4.25B zero-debt free cash flow — confirm best-in-class execution, and Q2 2026's reported $3.036B revenue at 37.7% growth with a 40% full-year guide signals further acceleration driven by AI networking demand. However, at $186.45 the stock trades at 58.1x P/E and 22.3x P/S — a 91% and 186% premium to the peer median respectively — pricing in sustained hypergrowth with little room for error.
Persistent insider selling ($2.08B net over 24 months) and a slightly negative MACD histogram temper enthusiasm despite an improving smart money score of 0.1579 as of Q2 2026. Exceptional fundamentals, but valuation leaves balanced risk/reward.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 58.1x P/E (91% above peer median of 30.5x) and 22.3x P/S (186% above peer median of 7.8x), any growth deceleration or guidance miss could trigger a sharp multiple re-rating lower.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 14.1M shares worth $2.08B across 670 dispositions vs 89 acquisitions, with CEO Ullal selling as recently as 2026-08-12 — a sustained distribution pattern.
- Supply-constrained growth ceiling. Management explicitly cited supply availability as a constraint on meeting AI demand, meaning upside is capped by component availability rather than demand, limiting the ability to outperform even in a strong market.
- Near-term technical momentum cooling. MACD histogram turned negative at -0.38 with RSI at a neutral 50.2, suggesting the uptrend above the 50-day MA ($175.99) may be losing steam after the post-earnings move.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · news articles (MarketBeat, Seeking Alpha, 2026-08-20) · insider summary + transactions. Orin's read on ANET; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ANET filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $11.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $8.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Fmr | $8.0B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $3.9B | 0.4% of fund |
141 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 863 Form 4 filings, net −$2.2B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 33 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ANET
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 63.4× | 46.9× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 49.7× | 41.5× | — |
| P/S | 24.31× | 14.95× | — |
| P/B | 17.3× | 11.1× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.28σ from its own mean).
22.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$225
$164 – $289 · +11% against today's price
- 41 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANETArista Networks, Inc. | $256B | 63.4× | 49.7× | 63.0% | 38.4% | 31% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| APHAmphenol Corporation | $203B | 39.1× | 23.1× | 38.5% | 17.8% | 37% |
| APPAppLovin Corporation | $106B | 24.1× | 19.3× | 88.5% | 64.6% | 193% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | $78B | 17.4× | 11.4× | 80.9% | 21.3% | 23% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| NOWServiceNow, Inc. | $146B | 87.4× | 43.4× | 74.8% | 11.3% | 14% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $207B | 22.5× | 16.2× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | $141B | 15.0× | 18.9× | 42.3% | 17.3% | 36% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 100.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $83 | $151.06 · −45% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $76 | $151.06 · −49% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.