Aon plc
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Aon trades at a 23% P/E discount to the insurance-broker peer median (16.0x vs 20.9x) despite FY2025 EPS surging 36% to $17.02 on 9.4% revenue growth and $3.2B in free cash flow, but Q2 2026 revenue growth collapsed to 2.2% YoY — a sharp deceleration from Q1's 6.4% — that questions whether the NFP integration is delivering expected synergies.
Chairman Lester Knight's $6.5M open-market purchase at $325–$330 on September 2, 2026 signals insider confidence, yet the stock at $292.55 remains below both its 50-day ($311.56) and 200-day ($327.94) moving averages, and with Q3 2026 earnings eleven days away on October 28, the risk-reward is balanced enough to await the print before committing.
What could go wrong
- Revenue deceleration persists. Q2 2026 revenue growth of 2.2% YoY is a fraction of FY2025's 9.4%; if Q3 confirms this trend, the valuation discount may be justified rather than opportunistic.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $16.5B against stockholders' equity of $9.4B as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility, particularly if integration costs or acquisition-related expenses rise.
- Technical downtrend intact. Stock at $292.55 trades below both the 50-day MA of $311.56 and 200-day MA of $327.94, indicating the broader downtrend has not been broken despite recent stabilization.
- Interim CFO uncertainty. Q3 2026 earnings will be presented by Interim CFO Nadin Virani, and any lack of clarity on permanent CFO appointment or integration financials could pressure shares.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 2026 results · insider trades. Orin's read on AON; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 10.2% over twelve months, from $336.87 on 27 Oct 2025 to $302.50 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $381.26 on 28 Jul 2026; the last close is 20.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.3M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AON filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $4.0B | 0.2% |
| Capital World Investors | $3.9B | 0.5% |
| State Street | $3.1B | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $2.6B | 0.8% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $1.1B | 0.2% |
107 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 161 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $76K. Of the 50 on hand, 6 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AON
Orin answers questions about AON from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 24.5×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.5×below usual | 24.5× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 3.63×below usual | 4.84× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0×below usual | 18.8× | — |
| P/B | 6.4× | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 8.1× to 63.7× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $361 (from $317 to $423) — 19% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$361
$317 – $423 · +19% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AONAon plc | $64B | 16.5× | 14.0× | 83.1% | 22.2% | 40% |
| AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co. | $66B | 42.5× | 16.9× | 74.6% | 10.0% | 7% |
| BROBrown & Brown, Inc. | $23B | 18.5× | 11.6× | 58.8% | 17.5% | 10% |
| MRSHMarsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $91B | 22.7× | 18.5× | 42.8% | 14.2% | 27% |
| WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | $30B | 19.6× | 12.9× | 53.8% | 15.5% | 20% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.