Aon plc AON
Aon's FY2025 results are undeniably strong — EPS surged 36% to $17.02 on 9.4% revenue growth to $17.2B, free cash flow expanded to $3.2B, and total debt was cut by $1.4B to $16.5B — yet the stock's ~8% pullback from the mid-$370s to $347.22 has only marginally improved the setup. At 19.5x trailing earnings AON trades at a 36% discount to the peer median P/E of 30.5x, but that discount reflects modest ~5% organic growth and a sub-1% dividend yield that cap the multiple.
Smart money has just turned slightly positive (score 0.0091 as of Q2 2026) after a year of outflows, yet persistent insider selling by the General Counsel at $360–380 and the CFO at $343.56 in July 2026, combined with a bearish MACD histogram of -2.40, argue for patience until technicals stabilize near the 200-day MA at $337.
What could go wrong
- Insider selling acceleration. General Counsel Zeidel executed multiple sales in July 2026 at $360–380, and CFO Reese sold 2,198 shares at $343.56 on July 1; 24-month net insider value is -$29.2M despite positive net share count of +49,618.
- Valuation ceiling from modest organic growth. Seeking Alpha (2026-08-10) notes ~5% organic growth and sub-1% dividend yield do not justify a premium multiple; P/S of 4.29x is 28% above the peer median of 3.36x, limiting re-rating upside.
- Bearish technical momentum. MACD histogram at -2.40 with the signal line at 2.86 vs. the MACD line at 0.46 indicates downward momentum; price at $347.22 is below the 50-day MA of $348.62.
- Leverage remains elevated. Total debt of $16.5B against stockholders' equity of $9.35B yields a debt-to-equity ratio of ~1.8x as of FY2025, constraining financial flexibility despite the $1.4B reduction from FY2024.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31. Orin's read on AON; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AON filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $4.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $3.9B | 0.5% of fund |
| State Street | $3.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/ | $2.6B | 0.8% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
104 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 161 Form 4 filings, net −$22.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 6 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AON
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.4× | 24.5× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8× | 18.8× | — |
| P/S | 3.40× | 4.84× | — |
| P/B | 6.2× | — | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.21σ from its own mean).
6.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$387
$349 – $433 · +39% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 19 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AONAon plc | $60B | 15.4× | 11.8× | 83.1% | 22.3% | 43% |
| AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co. | $59B | 37.6× | 15.0× | 74.6% | 10.0% | 7% |
| APOApollo Global Management, Inc. | $72B | 26.9× | 6.2× | 84.5% | 5.2% | 9% |
| PNCThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | $89B | 12.3× | 15.0× | 67.9% | 21.7% | 12% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 42.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.