Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. APD
Air Products is a hold because the underlying business is inflecting positively—Q3 FY26 adjusted EPS of $3.47 beat guidance, full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $13.39–$13.49, and FY2026 capex is now expected at ~$3.5B versus $7.0B in FY2025, which should finally push free cash flow positive after three consecutive years of negative FCF. However, the stock at $300 trades at a 50% P/S premium and a 215% EV/EBITDA premium to the peer median, total debt has more than doubled to $18.4B from $8.3B three years ago, and GAAP results remain distorted by $2.1B in Q3 charges from the June 30, 2026 business and asset actions.
The turnaround thesis is real but largely priced in.
What could go wrong
- Capex slippage delays FCF inflection. FY2026 capex guidance of ~$3.5B is a sharp reduction from $7.0B in FY2025, but APD has a track record of capex overruns—capex rose from $2.5B in FY2021 to $7.0B in FY2025. Any slippage pushes FCF positivity further out.
- Balance sheet deterioration. Total debt grew from $8.3B (FY2022) to $18.4B (FY2025) while stockholders' equity fell from $17.0B to $15.0B. Sustained GAAP losses and large charges could further erode equity and raise leverage concerns.
- Valuation premium unwinds. At $300, APD trades at 5.3x P/S and 64.8x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 3.5x and 20.6x respectively. If adjusted EPS growth disappoints or capex discipline falters, the premium could compress sharply.
- Charge recurrence. Q3 FY26 included $2.1B in operating-loss charges from business and asset actions, following FY2025's $877M operating loss. Further portfolio actions could continue to distort GAAP results and erode investor confidence.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: PRNewsWire Q3 FY26 results, 2026-07-30 · PRNewsWire Q3 FY26 results, 2026-07-30 · FMP FY2025 annual fundamentals · FMP multi-year fundamentals. Orin's read on APD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All APD filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 30 Jul | Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 30 Jul | Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 30 Jun | Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | read |
| 13G/A | 14 May | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 14 May | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 30 Apr | Air Products reported a 9% year-over-year sales increase to $3.17 billion for the quarter ended 31 March 2026, driven by 4% volume growth, 4% favorable currency, and 2% higher… | read |
| 8-K | 30 Apr | Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 29 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $3.1B | 0.4% of fund |
| State Street | $3.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
112 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 84 Form 4 filings, net −$22.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APD
Orin answers questions about APD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 62.5× | 15.2× | — |
| P/S | 5.07× | 5.05× | — |
| P/B | 4.6× | 4.0× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−19.22σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$345
$320 – $373 · +20% against today's price
- 22 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc. | $64B | — | 62.5× | 32.1% | -0.4% | -0% |
| CTVACorteva, Inc. | $54B | 53.3× | 17.4× | 48.5% | 5.7% | 4% |
| ECLEcolab Inc. | $78B | 36.9× | 25.9× | 44.1% | 12.6% | 21% |
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | $104B | 35.8× | 12.3× | 26.8% | 11.4% | 15% |
| MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $29B | 12.0× | 16.9× | 28.2% | 36.8% | 23% |
| PPGPPG Industries, Inc. | $24B | 15.3× | 10.7× | 40.1% | 9.6% | 19% |
| SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company | $79B | 29.8× | 20.9× | 49.1% | 11.0% | 62% |
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | $32B | 28.8× | 14.2× | 27.4% | 13.8% | 13% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-200 | $281.32 · −171% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-265 | $281.32 · −194% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.