Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
APD is a hold heading into its fiscal Q4 2026 report on November 5, as the investment case remains an unproven bet on capex rolling off and free cash flow inflecting.
Q3 FY26 (ended 30 Jun) delivered 4.6% YoY revenue growth to $3.16B and adjusted EPS of $3.47 beating the $3.34 consensus, but GAAP results told a starkly different story with a $2.1B operating loss and -$6.46 diluted EPS, likely reflecting a large impairment tied to the capex-heavy projects that drove FY2025 capex to $7.02B and total debt to $18.4B. With FCF negative for three straight years including -$3.77B in FY2025, shares at $278.12 trading below both the 50-day ($294.87) and 200-day ($286.22) moving averages, and a P/S of 4.91 that is 26% above the peer median, the risk/reward is too balanced to justify a directional call until the November 5 report clarifies whether the investment cycle is truly inflecting.
What could go wrong
- Continued impairment charges. The Q3 FY26 GAAP operating loss of $2.1B on $3.16B revenue suggests major write-downs on capex projects; further impairments would signal the $7.02B FY2025 investment program is destroying value.
- FCF remains deeply negative. Free cash flow has been negative for three consecutive years including -$3.77B in FY2025; if capex does not roll off as expected, the FCF inflection thesis collapses.
- Debt burden and leverage. Total debt surged from $8.3B in FY2022 to $18.4B in FY2025 against declining stockholders' equity from $17.0B to $15.0B, raising balance-sheet risk if rates stay elevated.
- Valuation premium to peers. P/S of 4.91 is 26% above the peer median of 3.90 and EV/EBITDA of 18.07 is 27% above the peer median of 14.19, leaving little room for execution missteps.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 FY26 results and earnings vs estimates · Q3 FY26 results · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 7 Oct. Orin's read on APD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 20.1% over twelve months, from $255.76 on 27 Oct 2025 to $307.11 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $314.19 on 2 Jul 2026; the last close is 2.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.3M, on 6 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All APD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.3B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $3.1B | 0.4% |
| State Street | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Viking Global Investors | $1.4B | 4.0% |
| Norges Bank | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.2B | 0.1% |
115 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 92 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$21.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APD
Orin answers questions about APD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 129× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in all 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 25.3×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 129×above usual | 25.3× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 5.31×above usual | 5.05× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | not meaningful | — | — |
| P/B | 4.0×near usual | 4.0× | — |
- EV/EBITDA: not meaningful — over the last 12 months the business itself lost money before depreciation (operating income plus depreciation is below zero); a profit from one-off gains does not count.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $340 (from $305 to $373) — 11% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$340
$305 – $373 · +11% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 129× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (LIN 32.7×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc. | $69B | 129× | n/m | 31.6% | 4.1% | 3% |
| LINLinde plc | $234B | 32.7× | 19.2× | 37.6% | 20.4% | 19% |
- APD: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 129× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now129×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.