APi Group Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
APi Group's pullback from ~$44 to $37.83 has meaningfully improved the risk/reward, with the stock now trading at 1.94x sales versus the peer median of 2.76x — roughly 30% below — despite delivering 12.7% revenue growth to $7.91B in 2025 and Q2 2026 revenue growth of 13.3% to $2.254B.
Operating margins have expanded steadily from 2.5% in 2022 to 7.0% in 2025 with FCF reaching $663M, and the recently closed Evergreen Fire and Security acquisition adds to a $5B backlog underpinning management's target of $10B revenue and 16% EBITDA margins by 2028. Smart money has turned slightly positive (score 0.00 as of 30 Jun) with consistent earnings beats across recent quarters, while the 14% decline has pushed RSI to 40.7 with the MACD histogram inflecting positive — suggesting the downtrend may be exhausting near current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium on EV/EBITDA. EV/EBITDA of 21.7 sits ~32% above the peer median of 16.4, limiting multiple expansion upside if growth narrative disappoints.
- Insider selling pressure. Net insider disposition value of -$521.7M over 24 months, with Ashken and Lillie actively selling in August 2026 at $39.84–$42.47.
- Leverage. Total debt of $3.07B against stockholders' equity of $3.41B as of FY2025, with acquisition-driven debt adds possible.
- Technical downtrend. Stock trades at $37.83, below the 50-day MA of $40.00 and 200-day MA of $41.88, indicating broader bearish momentum.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · fundamentals · technicals, 24 Sep. Orin's read on APG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 17.7% over twelve months, from $34.67 on 27 Oct 2025 to $40.81 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $49.40 on 27 Apr 2026; the last close is 17.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 11.1M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All APG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $743.3M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $741.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $701.5M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $631.1M | 0.1% |
| Durable Capital Partners | $513.8M | 5.0% |
| State Street | $501.3M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $360.0M | 0.0% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $294.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $284.4M | 0.0% |
82 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 303 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$468.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 28 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APG
Orin answers questions about APG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 2.09× its yearly sales — above its usual level (1.35×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 151× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 2.09×above usual | 1.35× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.0×above usual | 15.6× | — |
| P/B | 5.0×above usual | 2.8× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $52.20 (from $47 to $55) — 28% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$52.20
$47 – $55 · +28% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 24.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APGAPi Group Corporation | $18B | lost money | 23.0× | 29.3% | 4.1% | 10% |
| ABMABM Industries Inc. | $3B | 19.3× | 11.2× | 11.7% | 1.8% | 9% |
| AMRCAmeresco, Inc. | $1B | 37.6× | 11.8× | 16.1% | 1.4% | 2% |
| EMEEMCOR Group, Inc. | $29B | 20.7× | 12.9× | 19.7% | 7.7% | 38% |
| FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. | $45B | 27.8× | 19.2× | 25.6% | 13.0% | 55% |
| FLRFluor Corporation | $6B | lost money | n/m | −0.8% | −12.8% | −57% |
| IESCIES Holdings, Inc. | $9B | 19.9× | 15.0× | 25.9% | 11.4% | 44% |
| LGNLegence Corp. Class A Common stock | $5B | lost money | 31.1× | 16.7% | −1.2% | −10% |
| MTRXMatrix Service Company | $244M | 33.4× | 5.6× | 7.7% | 0.8% | 5% |
| PWRQuanta Services, Inc. | $87B | 65.5× | 30.0× | 14.4% | 4.1% | 15% |
| TTEKTetra Tech, Inc. | $9B | 22.1× | 15.0× | 18.8% | 8.6% | 24% |
- FLR, LGN: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- FLR: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $11 a share — 72% below the $40.78 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $11 | 72% below $40.78 |
| Levered | $12 | 72% below $40.78 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.