APi Group Corporation APG
APi Group's fundamental trajectory remains strong—revenue grew to $7.91B in 2025 with operating income expanding to $554M and FCF reaching $663M, and Q2 2026 results delivered 10%+ organic growth with raised full-year guidance. However, the stock has rallied ~11% to $43.95 since the prior buy call, pushing RSI to 68 and lifting EV/EBITDA to 24.6, a 47% premium to the peer median of 16.7.
With insiders net selling $560M over 24 months—including Ashken and Lillie actively selling in early August 2026—and smart money score turning negative at -0.10 with fund count dropping from 55 to 46, the risk/reward at current levels is balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Insider selling acceleration. Insiders net sold $560M over 24 months with 208 dispositions vs 112 acquisitions; Ashken sold ~300K shares in August 2026 alone at ~$40.
- Valuation premium on EV/EBITDA. EV/EBITDA of 24.6 is 47% above peer median of 16.7, limiting upside if growth decelerates.
- Smart money outflows. SM score turned negative at -0.105 and fund count fell from 55 (Q1 2026) to 46 (Q2 2026), suggesting institutional fatigue.
- Leverage and negative reported EPS. Total debt of $3.07B against equity of $3.41B, with reported diluted EPS of -$0.69 in 2025, likely reflecting acquisition-related amortization that obscures underlying earnings power.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 · Zacks news 2026-07-30 / Business Wire 2026-07-30 · Technicals as of 2026-08-14 · Peer relative comparison. Orin's read on APG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All APG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $743.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $741.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $701.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $631.1M | 0.1% of fund |
| Durable Capital Partners | $513.8M | 5.0% of fund |
| State Street | $501.3M | 0.0% of fund |
80 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 308 Form 4 filings, net −$521.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 28 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APG
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 21.7× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.94× | — | — |
| P/B | 4.6× | — | — |
10.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$52
$47 – $55 · +39% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APGAPi Group Corporation | $16B | — | 21.7× | 29.3% | 4.1% | 10% |
| ACMAecom | $8B | 27.8× | — | 5.7% | 1.9% | 13% |
| ALLEAllegion plc | $13B | 20.1× | 14.9× | 44.8% | 15.4% | 32% |
| CSLCarlisle Companies Incorporated | $13B | 18.5× | 12.3× | 35.3% | 14.2% | 41% |
| STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc. | $16B | 36.5× | 21.7× | 23.6% | 12.5% | 37% |
| WSOWatsco, Inc. | $13B | 28.1× | 18.4× | 27.9% | 6.5% | 17% |
| WWDWoodward, Inc. | $19B | 35.3× | 23.7× | 29.5% | 13.2% | 22% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.