Amphenol Corporation APH
Amphenol's FY2025 results — revenue of $23.1B (+51.7% YoY) and diluted EPS of $3.34 (+74% YoY) with operating margin expanding to 25.9% — confirm the AI-driven connectivity thesis is translating into earnings power, not just topline. At $170.87 the stock trades at 40.7x trailing P/E, an ~11% discount to the peer median of 45.9x, and at 24.0x EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 47.4x, making it one of the cheapest ways to gain AI capex exposure despite a 24.1% YTD gain.
The technical tape is constructive with price above both the 50-day ($160.1) and 200-day ($144.3) moving averages and a positive MACD histogram, while smart money scores improved to 0.26 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30. The main overhang is total debt more than doubling to $15.5B from $7.28B in FY2024 alongside persistent insider selling of $579M net over 24 months, but $4.38B in FY2025 free cash flow provides ample deleveraging capacity.
What could go wrong
- Leverage from acquisitions. Total debt surged to $15.5B at FY2025-end from $7.28B in FY2024, more than doubling in a single year; if acquisition integration underperforms, debt service could pressure returns.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 5.6M shares worth $579M, with the CFO and EVP HR exercising options and immediately selling shares in August 2026 at $167–174 per share.
- Valuation stretched on absolute basis. A GuruFocus DCF published 2026-08-17 estimated intrinsic value at $100 versus the then-$167 price, suggesting meaningful downside if AI capex growth disappoints.
- AI capex cyclicality. FY2025 revenue growth of 51.7% is heavily tied to data-center and AI interconnect demand; any slowdown in hyperscaler capex could compress both growth and multiples.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · derived_metrics · peer_relative · FMP FY2025 and FY2024 annual. Orin's read on APH; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All APH filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $14.2B | 0.3% of fund |
| Fmr | $12.4B | 0.5% of fund |
| State Street | $10.5B | 0.3% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $6.5B | 0.4% of fund |
| Brasada Capital Management | $6.5B | 1.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $6.3B | 0.3% of fund |
160 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 207 Form 4 filings, net −$579.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APH
Orin answers questions about APH from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 39.1× | 32.9× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.1× | 22.5× | — |
| P/S | 6.99× | 4.81× | — |
| P/B | 13.0× | 8.3× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.45σ from its own mean).
19.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$165
$99 – $215 · +105% against today's price
- 16 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APHAmphenol Corporation | $203B | 39.1× | 23.1× | 38.5% | 17.8% | 37% |
| ACNAccenture plc | $112B | 14.5× | 8.7× | 32.0% | 10.7% | 25% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| ANETArista Networks, Inc. | $256B | 63.4× | 49.7× | 63.0% | 38.4% | 31% |
| ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $355B | 342.8× | 256.8× | 95.3% | 20.2% | 13% |
| INTCIntel Corporation | $618B | — | 178.7× | 38.9% | -19.8% | -11% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | $78B | 17.4× | 11.4× | 80.9% | 21.3% | 23% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $245B | 51.0× | 43.4× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $249B | 41.2× | 28.5× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 15.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $78 | $151.58 · −48% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $99 | $151.58 · −35% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.