Amphenol Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Amphenol's FY2025 revenue grew 51.7% to $23.1B with operating margin expanding to 25.4% from 21.6%, and Q2 2026 sustained the momentum at $8.76B (+55% YoY) — but at 41.5x trailing P/E, APH trades at a 95.8% premium to the peer median of 21.2x, pricing in continued AI-driven hypergrowth.
Heavy insider selling ($858.6M net over 24 months as of the latest filings) and a doubling of total debt to $15.5B from $7.28B between FY2024 and FY2025 add caution, while smart money 13F flows are slightly negative (-0.02 as of Q2 2026). The company's execution is exceptional, but the risk/reward is balanced at these levels — hold for the AI connectivity exposure, but the premium limits margin of safety.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. APH trades at 41.5x P/E and 7.4x P/S, a 95.8% and 124.4% premium to peer medians of 21.2x and 3.3x respectively, leaving limited room for execution missteps.
- AI demand deceleration. FY2025 revenue growth of 51.7% and Q2 2026 YoY growth of 55% are heavily tied to AI infrastructure demand; any slowdown in hyperscaler capex could compress both growth and multiples.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased from $7.28B in FY2024 to $15.5B in FY2025, more than doubling year-over-year and raising financial risk if growth slows.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders net sold $858.6M of stock over 24 months with 207 transactions and only 1 acquisition, including option exercises and sales by the CFO and other EVPs in August 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on APH; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 15.1% over twelve months, from $67.96 on 27 Oct 2025 to $78.21 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $88.62 on 6 Oct 2026; the last close is 11.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 75.6M, on 28 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All APH filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $17.9B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $14.2B | 0.3% |
| FMR | $12.4B | 0.5% |
| State Street | $10.5B | 0.3% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $6.5B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $6.3B | 0.3% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $5.6B | 0.6% |
| Geode Capital Management | $5.5B | 0.3% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $5.2B | 0.7% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.6B | 0.2% |
162 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 207 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$858.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APH
Orin answers questions about APH from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 37.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 32.9×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 37.2×above usual | 32.9× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 6.65×above usual | 4.81× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.4×near usual | 22.5× | — |
| P/B | 12.4×above usual | 8.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
- A share split on 3 Sep changed the share count; figures from before it may not all be restated yet.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $139 (from $99 to $215) — 78% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$139
$99 – $215 · +78% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 37.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APHAmphenol Corporation | $193B | 37.2× | 22.4× | 38.5% | 17.8% | 37% |
| BDCBelden Inc. | $4B | 17.3× | 10.6× | 36.5% | 8.5% | 19% |
| GLWCorning Incorporated | $109B | 50.5× | 24.2× | 36.4% | 12.1% | 17% |
| TELTE Connectivity Ltd. | $65B | 21.9× | 14.1× | 35.4% | 15.8% | 23% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 37.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now37.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $36 a share — 53% below the $77.92 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $36 | 53% below $77.92 |
| Levered | $46 | 41% below $77.92 |
- A share split on 3 Sep changed the share count; figures from before it may not all be restated yet.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.