Apollo Global Management, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Apollo Global Management remains a hold as the stock trades at an extreme discount to peers — 24.07x P/E vs 26.55x peer median and 5.56x EV/EBITDA vs 16.51x — yet the fundamental picture is mixed with FY2025 net income declining 21.1% despite 22.7% revenue growth, and Q1 2026 posting a $1.91B net loss before Q2 2026 rebounded to $2.15 EPS.
The stock at $111.22 as of 20 Oct sits below both its 50-day ($125.84) and 200-day ($124.68) moving averages with an RSI of 31.38, reflecting oversold conditions in a confirmed downtrend, while persistent insider net selling of 1.01M shares over 24 months and a neutral smart money score of -0.00 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun temper the valuation appeal. Q3 2026 results and the trajectory of large credit mandates like the reported SpaceX financing will determine whether the discount is a value opportunity or a value trap.
What could go wrong
- Earnings volatility. Q1 2026 posted a net loss of $1.91B (EPS -$3.24) before Q2 2026 recovered to $2.15 EPS, and FY2025 operating margin compressed from 31.8% to 25.8%, making the earnings trajectory difficult to forecast.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 1.01M shares valued at $135.7M, including a 3.0M share disposition by LDB 2014 LLC in July 2026 and CFO Kelly Martin selling 3,000 shares at $140.845 in August 2026.
- Credit market exposure. Apollo's heavy private credit franchise is exposed to any deterioration in credit markets; large mandates like the reported SpaceX $40B financing concentrate risk.
- Technical downtrend. Stock at $111.22 trades below both the 50-day ($125.84) and 200-day ($124.68) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram, indicating sustained selling pressure despite oversold RSI of 31.38.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · quarterly results · technicals. Orin's read on APO; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 9.6% over twelve months, from $126.37 on 27 Oct 2025 to $114.26 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $152.70 on 6 Jan 2026; the last close is 25.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 15.1M, on 27 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All APO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.3B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $2.9B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.8B | 0.4% |
| State Street | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $2.2B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Franklin Resources | $1.2B | 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| National Philanthropic Trust | $1.1B | 15.6% |
112 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 96 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$135.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APO
Orin answers questions about APO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 24.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 16.8×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 24.7×above usual | 16.8× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 1.88×below usual | 2.88× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8×below usual | 8.3× | — |
| P/B | 3.2×below usual | 4.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $136 (from $127 to $145) — 19% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$136
$127 – $145 · +19% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 24.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 27.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APOApollo Global Management, Inc. | $67B | 24.7× | 5.8× | 84.5% | 5.2% | 9% |
| ARESAres Management Corporation | $40B | 53.4× | 21.4× | 62.7% | 10.0% | 15% |
| BXBlackstone Inc. | $134B | 25.8× | 16.9× | 89.7% | 21.8% | 41% |
| KKRKKR & Co. Inc. | $83B | 27.4× | 12.6× | 22.5% | 15.0% | 10% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 24.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now24.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $523 a share — 356% above the $114.58 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $523 | 356% above $114.58 |
| Levered | $673 | 487% above $114.58 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.