Apollo Global Management, Inc. APO
Apollo Global Management remains a buy at $135.04, trading at a steep discount to peers on every key valuation metric — 29.23x P/E vs 31.99x peer median, 2.16x P/S vs 6.97x, and 6.84x EV/EBITDA vs 19.54x — while Q2 2026 delivered record fee-related earnings of $785 million, up 25% year-over-year, with 34% FGAUM growth and $60 billion in organic inflows. The structural shift toward perpetual capital (now 70% of FGAUM) and a five-year plan targeting 20% annual FRE growth reduce earnings volatility and support re-rating, with the stock above both its 50-day ($126.56) and 200-day ($127.67) moving averages and smart money turning slightly positive at 0.0208 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
Persistent insider net selling of 7.6 million shares over 24 months and a recently disclosed social engineering data breach temper conviction, but the valuation gap and operational momentum are too wide to ignore.
What could go wrong
- Insider selling pressure. Insiders net sold 7.6 million shares worth approximately $153.7 million over the trailing 24 months, including a 3 million share disposition by LDB 2014 LLC on 2026-07-29 and CFO Kelly Martin selling 3,000 shares at $140.845 on 2026-08-14.
- Data breach fallout. Apollo disclosed a social engineering attack leading to a data breach on August 21, 2026, which could carry regulatory, reputational, and client-trust costs not yet quantified.
- Lumpy earnings and EPS decline. FY2025 EPS fell 24.4% year-over-year to $5.54 and net income declined 21.1%, reflecting the volatility of realized gains even as fee-related earnings grow; operating margin compressed to 25.77% from 31.78% in FY2024.
- MACD momentum fading. As of 2026-08-28, the MACD histogram turned negative at -0.42 with the line below signal, suggesting near-term momentum has softened despite the stock trading above both major moving averages.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative composite as of 2026-08-28 · Seeking Alpha news article published 2026-08-28 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 and derived_metrics · technicals as of 2026-08-28. Orin's read on APO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All APO filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 21 Sep | — | on file |
| 8-K | 24 Aug | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | read |
| 13D | 14 Aug | LDB 2025 LLC beneficially owns 3,000,000 shares of Apollo Global Management, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 13 Aug | Athene Holding Ltd., a subsidiary of Apollo Global Management, Inc., will host a Fixed Income Investor call on August 13, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. | read |
| 8-K/A | 12 Aug | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 11 Aug | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | read |
| 10-Q | 10 Aug | Total revenues increased 63.7% YoY to $11.15 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, and 31.1% YoY to $16.21 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026. | read |
| 8-K | 4 Aug | Apollo Global Management, Inc. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $2.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.8B | 0.4% of fund |
| State Street | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $2.2B | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
109 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 96 Form 4 filings, net −$153.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APO
Orin answers questions about APO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 26.9× | — | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.99× | 2.90× | — |
| P/B | 3.5× | 4.5× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.25σ from its own mean).
-2.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $7.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$145
$145 – $145 · +17% against today's price
- 23 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APOApollo Global Management, Inc. | $72B | 26.9× | 6.2× | 84.5% | 5.2% | 9% |
| ARESAres Management Corporation | $40B | 53.0× | 21.3× | 62.7% | 10.0% | 15% |
| BLKBlackRock, Inc. | $164B | 25.0× | 15.8× | 55.7% | 24.1% | 12% |
| BXBlackstone Inc. | $144B | 26.5× | 18.5× | 88.8% | 21.9% | 41% |
| KKRKKR & Co. Inc. | $87B | 28.9× | 13.1× | 22.5% | 15.0% | 10% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 2.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $552 | $133.34 · +314% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $674 | $133.34 · +406% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.