AppLovin Corporation APP
AppLovin's FY2025 results remain exceptional — revenue of $5.48B with a 75.75% operating margin, 71.94% FCF margin, and 69.99% revenue growth — but the stock has fallen to $310.79 as of 2026-08-19, trading well below its 50-day ($435.24) and 200-day ($503.45) moving averages with an RSI of 30.54 signaling oversold conditions. The PE of 23.78 sits roughly 61% below the peer median of 61.62 and the EV/EBITDA of 19.01 is similarly discounted, suggesting much of the Q2 miss and negative Jefferies sentiment is now priced in.
However, persistent insider selling — net dispositions of 1,168,974 shares worth $600.7M over 24 months across 685 sales versus 25 acquisitions — and the unclear trajectory of the advertising-model improvements that caused the Q2 shortfall argue for patience until Q3 results clarify whether AXON 2.0 and e-commerce onboarding can reaccelerate growth.
What could go wrong
- Growth deceleration persists. Q2 2026 revenue and EBITDA missed guidance per Seeking Alpha; if AXON 2.0 self-serve GA and e-commerce onboarding in Q3 fail to reaccelerate growth, the premium multiple on P/S of 15.29 (189.9% above peer median of 5.27) compresses further.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders executed 685 dispositions versus 25 acquisitions for net selling of $600.7M, signaling limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Sentiment deterioration. Jefferies reports the most negative investor mood in years of covering the company, with questions about a Trade Desk-style downturn representing the most negative line of questioning received.
- Technical breakdown deepens. Stock at $310.79 is below both 50-day ($435.24) and 200-day ($503.45) moving averages with negative MACD histogram; a failure to stabilize could trigger further institutional exits.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2025 · technicals as of 2026-08-19 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on APP; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All APP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $9.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Fmr | $8.9B | 0.4% of fund |
| State Street | $6.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Invesco | $5.7B | 0.4% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $4.2B | 0.5% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.8B | 0.2% of fund |
128 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 715 Form 4 filings, net −$605.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 36 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APP
Orin answers questions about APP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 24.1× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.3× | 47.1× | — |
| P/S | 15.51× | 10.96× | — |
| P/B | 33.5× | 14.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.54σ from its own mean).
11.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$532
$325 – $790 · +69% against today's price
- 21 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APPAppLovin Corporation | $106B | 24.1× | 19.3× | 88.5% | 64.6% | 193% |
| DDOGDatadog, Inc. | $90B | — | 343.2× | 79.5% | 4.5% | 5% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | $78B | 17.4× | 11.4× | 80.9% | 21.3% | 23% |
| WDAYWorkday, Inc. | $50B | 38.9× | 32.1× | 75.8% | 12.3% | 17% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $126 | $500.37 · −75% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $133 | $500.37 · −73% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.