AppLovin Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
AppLovin's fundamentals remain exceptional — FY2025 revenue of $5.48B with a 75.8% operating margin and 71.9% FCF margin, plus Q1 and Q2 2026 revenue growth of 58.9% and 52.8% YoY respectively — but the stock at $277.04 as of 9 Oct trades 38% below its 50-day MA ($318.17) and 38% below its 200-day MA ($445.79) under the weight of multiple securities class action lawsuits alleging material misstatements about AI product revenue projections during the Feb–Aug 2026 class period.
The PE of 21.2 sits 43.8% below the peer median of 37.7, making the stock cheap on earnings, but persistent insider selling (net -1,097,275 shares worth $562.3M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions) and a bearish MACD histogram (-1.51) with RSI at 35.4 argue against catching the knife. Hold pending Q3 2026 results to determine whether the legal overhang is a genuine fundamental risk or a transient sentiment drag on an otherwise high-quality franchise.
What could go wrong
- Securities class action litigation. Multiple law firms filed class actions covering Feb 12–Aug 5, 2026, alleging material misstatements about projected revenue growth from AI products and self-service application; lead plaintiff deadline November 16, 2026. Adverse findings could trigger further selling and regulatory scrutiny.
- Growth deceleration. Q4 2025 revenue growth dropped to 20.8% YoY from 68.2% in Q3 2025 before recovering to 58.9% in Q1 2026 and 52.8% in Q2 2026. A renewed deceleration in Q3 2026 would validate bearish concerns about the AI growth narrative.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders disposed 654 transactions for net -1,097,275 shares worth $562.3M with zero open-market acquisitions, signaling limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $277.04 trades well below both 50-day ($318.17) and 200-day ($445.79) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram (-1.51), indicating sustained downtrend momentum that could lead to further downside.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 2026 results · technicals, 9 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on APP; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 59.1% over twelve months, from $643.10 on 27 Oct 2025 to $262.82 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $733.60 on 22 Dec 2025; the last close is 64.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 18.8M, on 12 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All APP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $12.4B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $9.1B | 0.2% |
| FMR | $8.9B | 0.4% |
| State Street | $6.2B | 0.2% |
| Invesco | $5.7B | 0.4% |
| Capital World Investors | $4.2B | 0.5% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.8B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.3B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.0B | 0.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $2.5B | 0.2% |
131 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 717 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$562.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 34 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APP
Orin answers questions about APP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 23.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.9× | — | 46.1× |
| P/S | 14.3× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.4×below usual | 47.1× | — |
| P/B | 36.0× | — | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 39.5× to 966× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/S: no usual level — it ran from 1.39× to 41.7× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 2.1× to 107× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $512 (from $325 to $790) — 95% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$512
$325 – $790 · +95% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 23.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 41.5×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APPAppLovin Corporation | $109B | 23.9× | 17.4× | 88.8% | 65.9% | 183% |
| DDOGDatadog, Inc. | $63B | 239× | 166× | 79.6% | 6.1% | 6% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | $88B | 19.9× | 12.6× | 80.9% | 21.3% | 23% |
| WDAYWorkday, Inc. | $50B | 41.5× | 31.5× | 75.8% | 12.3% | 17% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 23.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now23.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $117 a share — 55% below the $261.37 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $117 | 55% below $261.37 |
| Levered | $124 | 52% below $261.37 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.