Aptiv PLC
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Aptiv remains a hold as the post-Versigent-spin revenue trajectory is genuinely unclear — Q2 2026 revenue fell 37.1% YoY to $3.27B, yet the company beat consensus EPS by 14.8% ($1.63 vs. $1.42 estimated), and a cluster buy by four insiders including the CEO for ~$8.3M in August 2026 signals conviction that the selloff is overdone.
The valuation screen is inexpensive at 0.49x P/S and 7.6x EV/EBITDA with FY2025 free cash flow of $1.53B, but a 41.5x trailing P/E on depressed earnings, FY2025 operating margin of just 5.8% (down from 10.5% in FY2024), and a technical downtrend with price 31% below the 200-day MA of $63.16 argue for waiting on Q3 2026 results to confirm whether revenue stabilizes post-spin before turning constructive.
What could go wrong
- Revenue collapse post-spin. Q2 2026 revenue of $3.27B represents a 37.1% YoY decline, and if this run-rate reflects the go-forward business rather than a one-off, the stock's P/S cheapness may be illusory.
- Margin deterioration. FY2025 operating margin fell to 5.8% from 10.5% in FY2024 with EPS collapsing 89.2% to $0.75; sustained margin pressure from China weakness or launch delays would further erode earnings quality.
- Technical breakdown. Price at $43.58 sits well below both the 50-day MA ($49.35) and 200-day MA ($63.16) with RSI at 38.7, and negative sell-side momentum (Zacks Strong Sell additions on Sept. 15 and 18) could drive further downside.
- Debt load. Total debt of $8.09B against stockholders' equity of $9.21B as of FY2025 leaves limited balance-sheet flexibility if auto-cycle weakness persists.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 4 Aug · insider trades · peer comparison. Orin's read on APTV; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 49.3% over twelve months, from $86.11 on 27 Oct 2025 to $43.65 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $88.67 on 9 Jan 2026; the last close is 50.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 25.1M, on 31 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All APTV filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $850.6M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $582.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $548.1M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $481.6M | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $473.9M | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $358.4M | 0.0% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $301.1M | 0.9% |
| Viking Global Investors | $279.5M | 0.8% |
| FMR | $258.3M | 0.0% |
78 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 98 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $1.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APTV
Orin answers questions about APTV from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 41.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 41.6× | — | 20.4× |
| P/S | 0.48×below usual | 1.24× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2×below usual | 11.8× | — |
| P/B | 1.1×below usual | 2.2× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 8.5× to 101× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $64.91 (from $55 to $94) — 49% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$64.91
$55 – $94 · +49% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 41.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now41.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $206 a share — 370% above the $43.86 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $206 | 370% above $43.86 |
| Levered | $223 | 409% above $43.86 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.