Aptiv PLC APTV
Aptiv remains a hold as the fundamental picture is genuinely mixed: FY2025 operating margin collapsed to 5.8% from 10.46% with EPS down 89% to $0.75, and management cut 2026 guidance citing China weakness and launch delays, yet a cluster buy by 4 insiders including the CEO for ~$8.3M between August 5–13 signals conviction that the selloff is overdone. The valuation screen is cheap at 0.57x P/S and 8.4x EV/EBITDA with $1.53B FCF, but a 47.7x trailing P/E on depressed earnings and a technical downtrend (price 26% below the 200-day MA of $67.64) argue for waiting on Q3 2026 to confirm whether margin recovery is real before turning constructive.
What could go wrong
- China structural weakness. Management characterized China demand weakness as a structural headwind and is exploring non-automotive diversification, suggesting the core auto electrical architecture business faces persistent pressure in a key market.
- Margin deterioration persistence. FY2025 operating margin fell to 5.8% from 10.46% in FY2024 and operating income dropped from $2.06B to $1.18B; if this does not reverse, the P/E of 47.7x remains elevated and FCF could compress.
- Guidance cut execution risk. Aptiv cut its 2026 outlook by approximately $300M after the Q2 beat, with launch delays and software timing pressuring the second half, increasing uncertainty around H2 delivery.
- Leverage and debt trajectory. Total debt rose to $8.09B in FY2025 from $6.79B in FY2023, and with net income at just $165M, interest coverage is thin relative to historical levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 · insider cluster_buy · peer_relative rows. Orin's read on APTV; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All APTV filingsLargest holders · 13F
Money flowNo 13F positioning on file.
Insiders, last 24 months: 98 Form 4 filings, net −$15.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about APTV
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 43.0× | 42.5× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8× | 11.8× | — |
| P/S | 0.51× | 1.24× | — |
| P/B | 1.1× | 2.2× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.12σ from its own mean).
-8.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$69
$55 – $94 · +53% against today's price
- 20 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.