Arm Holdings plc ARM
Arm Holdings' fundamentals are genuinely impressive—FY2026 revenue grew 22.8% to $4.92B with 92.5% gross margins and FCF rebounding to $979M from $178M—but at $279.44 the stock trades at 288x trailing earnings and 58x sales, roughly 5x peer median multiples, pricing in years of flawless execution. The stock has recovered ~24% from the prior hold call at $224.89, with MACD turning bullish and RSI neutral at 50, but persistent insider selling ($118.5M net disposition over 24 months, including the CPO liquidating entirely) and the extreme valuation leave no margin of safety.
The AI-driven CPU growth thesis is intact, but patience remains the prudent stance until either multiples compress materially or earnings growth catches up to the price.
What could go wrong
- Extreme valuation. P/E of 288x and P/S of 58x are ~5x peer medians (42x PE, 9x PS); any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Persistent insider selling. Net $118.5M in dispositions over 24 months across multiple executives, including the Chief People Officer selling to zero shares and the CCO selling at $287-$393.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Revenue growth has been strong but quarterly trajectory has been choppy with sequential declines, unlike more consistent peers; any slowdown would be severely punished at this multiple.
- Smart money is lukewarm. Smart money score of 0.0557 as of March 2026 is barely positive and the data is stale; fund count rose to 47 from 28 but conviction remains low.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Orin fundamentals FY2026 vs FY2025 · Orin fundamentals FY2026 · Orin fundamentals FY2026 vs FY2025 · Orin peer_relative. Orin's read on ARM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ARM filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G | 14 Feb 2024 | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Invesco | $4.5B | 0.4% of fund |
| DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral Genossenschafts Bank, Frankfurt am Main | $2.3B | 1.8% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $1.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $851.4M | 0.1% of fund |
87 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 124 Form 4 filings, net −$124.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 15 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ARM
Orin answers questions about ARM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 342.8× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 256.8× | — | — |
| P/S | 68.89× | — | — |
| P/B | 41.1× | — | — |
49.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$363
$210 – $641 · +9% against today's price
- 19 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $355B | 342.8× | 256.8× | 95.3% | 20.2% | 13% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| APHAmphenol Corporation | $203B | 39.1× | 23.1× | 38.5% | 17.8% | 37% |
| INTCIntel Corporation | $618B | — | 178.7× | 38.9% | -19.8% | -11% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | $78B | 17.4× | 11.4× | 80.9% | 21.3% | 23% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $245B | 51.0× | 43.4× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| NOWServiceNow, Inc. | $146B | 87.4× | 43.4× | 74.8% | 11.3% | 14% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $207B | 22.5× | 16.2× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $249B | 41.2× | 28.5× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 737.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.