Archrock, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Archrock's FY2025 results were strong—revenue grew 28.7% YoY to $1.49B and EPS rose 75.2% to $1.84—but the quarterly trend is deteriorating sharply, with Q2 2026 revenue declining 3.1% YoY and operating income collapsing to $93M from $201M in Q2 2025, alongside two consecutive EPS misses (-15.1% and -10.6%).
The stock trades at a deep discount to peers (16.3x P/E vs 38.2x median, 9.5x EV/EBITDA vs 47.9x) and sits below both its 50-day ($31.99) and 200-day ($33.84) moving averages as of 9 Oct, but persistent insider net selling (-414K shares, -$14.1M over 24 months) and $2.42B in total debt against only $120M in FY2025 free cash flow keep the risk/reward balanced. Hold until quarterly operating margins stabilize and revenue returns to growth.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression accelerating. FY2025 gross margin fell to 48.6% from 60.4% in FY2024, and Q2 2026 operating income of $93M versus $201M a year earlier suggests the compression is deepening rather than bottoming.
- High leverage constraining flexibility. Total debt of $2.42B against stockholders' equity of $1.49B and FY2025 free cash flow of only $120M limits financial flexibility if compression demand softens.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 414,057 shares for $14.1M, with multiple SVP-level sales at $34.76-$38.30 per share in 2026, signaling limited insider confidence at recent prices.
- Revenue growth stalling. Q2 2026 revenue declined 3.1% YoY to $371.2M, the first negative quarter after sustained double-digit growth, raising questions about compression demand sustainability.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 and Q2 2025 results · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison. Orin's read on AROC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 23.8% over twelve months, from $25.57 on 27 Oct 2025 to $31.66 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $41.95 on 26 Jun 2026; the last close is 24.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.6M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AROC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $451.1M | 0.0% |
| Earnest Partners | $388.4M | 1.4% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $309.7M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $306.3M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $293.2M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $262.1M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $201.3M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $146.7M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $109.6M | 0.0% |
76 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 87 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$14.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 10 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AROC
Orin answers questions about AROC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.7×); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.0×below usual | 23.7× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 3.69×above usual | 2.40× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.8×above usual | 9.3× | — |
| P/B | 3.6×above usual | 2.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $42.17 (from $40 to $46) — 33% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$42.17
$40 – $46 · +33% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.0× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (LB 25.9×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AROCArchrock, Inc. | $6B | 17.0× | 9.8× | 58.1% | 21.8% | 22% |
| LBLandBridge Company LLC | $5B | 25.9× | 28.2× | 93.3% | 20.8% | 14% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $21 a share — 33% below the $31.41 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $21 | 33% below $31.41 |
| Levered | $10 | 69% below $31.41 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.