Orin
AROCNYSE·Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Archrock, Inc. AROC

Market cap $5.3BP/E 16.5× trailingGross margin 58.1%Reports Tue 27 Oct, after the close
$30.49
−0.19 (−0.62%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $22.88 – $42.23
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 21 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Archrock's Q2 2026 earnings miss ($0.38 vs. $0.46 consensus) and narrowed full-year EBITDA outlook—driven by Aftermarket Services weakness and customer maintenance deferrals—confirm that the gross margin compression from 60.4% in FY2024 to 48.6% in FY2025 is not yet stabilizing, despite FY2025 revenue growth of 28.7% and EPS up 75% to $1.84. The valuation is undeniably cheap at 17.4x P/E and 9.9x EV/EBITDA—roughly 52% and 78% below peer medians—and smart money fund count has risen to 55 with a mildly positive score of 0.035 as of 2026-06-30, but FCF of only $120M against $502M capex, $2.42B in total debt, and insider net selling of 263K shares over 24 months keep the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.

With RSI at 34 and the stock trading below its 50-day MA of $36.57, technicals suggest near-term downside pressure before a clearer margin inflection; hold pending evidence that margins are bottoming.

What could go wrong

  • Margin compression. Gross margin fell from 60.4% in FY2024 to 48.6% in FY2025, and Q2 2026's AMS weakness and customer maintenance deferrals suggest further pressure may persist.
  • Capex-heavy model. FY2025 capex of $502M against FCF of only $120M leaves limited cushion, with total debt at $2.42B against equity of $1.49B.
  • Aftermarket Services weakness. Q2 2026 earnings miss of $0.38 vs. $0.46 consensus was driven by AMS softness, and the company narrowed its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook.
  • Insider selling. Insiders net sold 263,453 shares worth $34.2M over 24 months, with multiple SVP sales in March–May 2026 at $34.76–$38.30 per share.

What would change my mind

Margin stabilization. Q3 2026 gross margin stops declining or inflects upward, confirming the compression cycle has bottomedbullish
AMS recovery. Aftermarket Services revenue rebounds in Q3 2026 with improving utilization beyond 94.4%bullish
Further guidance cut. Company lowers full-year EBITDA outlook again at Q3 2026 reportingbearish
FCF inflection. Capex normalizes and FCF improves meaningfully from the $120M FY2025 levelbullish

Where this comes from: Zacks news article 2026-08-04 · FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2024–FY2025 · peer_relative. Orin's read on AROC; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$451.1M0.0% of fund
Brasada Capital Management$407.1M0.1% of fund
Earnest Partners$388.4M1.4% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$309.7M0.0% of fund
State Street$306.3M0.0% of fund
Invesco$293.2M0.0% of fund

75 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 88 Form 4 filings, net −$34.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 10 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Energy
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E16.5×—51.1×
EV/EBITDA9.6×——
P/S3.57×——
P/B3.4×——
What the price assumes

18.7%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

18 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$42

$40 – $46 · +38% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 15 buy or overweight
  • 3 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 36.5× of 1 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
AROCArchrock, Inc.$5B16.5×9.6×58.1%21.8%22%
LBLandBridge Company LLC$6B36.5×45.9×92.4%20.5%14%

The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 54.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 13.5×FY25 14.1×

What its sector has traded at

Energy
FY14 27.3×FY26 19.8×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $30.49
52-week range$23 – $42
Analyst targets$40 – $46
At sector P/E (51×)$95

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.