ASML Holding N.V. ASML
ASML's FY2025 results confirm the franchise is accelerating—revenue grew 15.6% to €32.7B, operating margin expanded to 34.6%, and EPS rose 28.4% to $24.71, while management nearly halved total debt to €2.7B and generated €10.6B in free cash flow. Smart money has turned increasingly constructive (score rising from -0.08 in Q4 2024 to 0.37 as of Q2 2026), and the EUV monopoly positions ASML as a primary beneficiary of the AI-driven semiconductor cycle.
However, at 54.2x earnings—a 38.6% premium to the peer median PE of 39.1x and a 52.9% premium on EV/EBITDA—the stock prices in substantial growth, and the near-term technical picture has weakened with shares at $1,696 below the 50-day MA of $1,768 and a deeply negative MACD histogram of -8.0. The recent pullback from prior levels improves the setup marginally, but the elevated valuation premium demands sustained acceleration to justify accumulation at current prices.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium compression. Trading at 54.2x PE (38.6% above peer median) and 41.4x EV/EBITDA (52.9% above median), ASML offers limited margin of safety if revenue growth or margin expansion disappoints.
- Near-term technical deterioration. Stock at $1,696 is below its 50-day MA of $1,768 with a bearish MACD histogram of -8.0 and RSI at 43.4, suggesting momentum has stalled and the 200-day MA at $1,464 could be tested on further weakness.
- Semiconductor cycle exposure. Recent news headlines highlight AI-driven memory demand as a growth catalyst, but semiconductor equipment orders are inherently cyclical and any moderation in customer capex could compress the growth narrative supporting the premium.
- Modest institutional conviction. Smart money score of 0.37 as of Q2 2026, while improving across six consecutive quarters, remains modest and suggests institutions are building positions but not yet strongly committed.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics FY2025 revenue_growth_yoy 0.1558 · derived_metrics FY2025 operating_margin 0.346; FY2024 operating_margin 0.3192 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 eps_diluted; derived_metrics FY2025 eps_growth_yoy 0.2843 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 total_debt 2,707,847,000; FY2024 total_debt 4,993,512,000. Orin's read on ASML; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ASML filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $10.9B | 0.5% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $7.4B | 0.9% of fund |
| Invesco | $6.2B | 0.5% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $4.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $3.8B | 0.4% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.6B | 0.2% of fund |
167 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Ask Orin about ASML
Orin answers questions about ASML from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 55.0× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 42.0× | — | — |
| P/S | 16.54× | — | — |
| P/B | 26.8× | — | — |
23.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $10.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$2306
$2000 – $2623 · +32% against today's price
- 26 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASMLASML Holding N.V. | $672B | 55.0× | 42.0× | 52.7% | 30.1% | 52% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $1.00T | 156.0× | 93.4× | 53.2% | 15.6% | 10% |
| CSCOCisco Systems, Inc. | $419B | 31.7× | 22.1× | 64.5% | 21.0% | 27% |
| IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation | $219B | 20.3× | 17.1× | 58.4% | 15.5% | 34% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $245B | 51.0× | 43.4× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.21T | 23.9× | 17.4× | 72.6% | 55.9% | 71% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $207B | 22.5× | 16.2× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $249B | 41.2× | 28.5× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 35.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.