ASML Holding N.V.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
ASML posted a blowout Q3 2026 with revenue of €11.66B (+55.2% YoY) and EPS of €14.47 versus €12.18 estimated — an 18.8% surprise — yet the stock has sold off to $1,641.52, below its 50-day MA of $1,739.63 with RSI at 37.7 signaling oversold conditions.
The PE of 42.18 trades at a 6.9% discount to the peer median of 45.29 while demand is set to exceed supply through 2028, with customers already inquiring about 2029–2030 orders and management having secured price increases on critical EUV products. The combination of accelerating fundamentals, multi-year demand visibility, structurally higher margins from 2027 onward, and a compressed valuation after a near-term technical pullback supports accumulation at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Technical downtrend. MACD histogram at -20.27 and price below the 50-day MA of $1,739.63 indicate bearish momentum that could persist before a reversal; RSI at 37.7 is approaching but not deeply oversold.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score deteriorated to -0.13 as of 30 Jun from +0.13 in Q3 2025, suggesting institutional positioning has turned slightly net-negative, though this data is stale.
- PS premium to peers. Price-to-sales of 14.42 sits 25.3% above the peer median of 11.51, meaning the stock still carries a revenue-multiple premium that could compress if growth disappoints.
- Geopolitical/export control risk. As the sole EUV supplier, ASML faces ongoing exposure to China export restrictions and trade-policy shifts that could disrupt order timing and revenue recognition.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 14 Oct · technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on ASML; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 54.3% over twelve months, from $1,059.98 on 27 Oct 2025 to $1,635.57 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $1,989.44 on 30 Jun 2026; the last close is 17.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.0M, on 28 Jan 2026).
On file
All ASML filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $10.9B | 0.5% |
| Capital World Investors | $7.4B | 0.9% |
| Invesco | $6.2B | 0.5% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $4.5B | 0.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $3.8B | 0.4% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.6B | 0.2% |
| Bank of America | $3.3B | 0.2% |
| BlackRock | $2.6B | 0.0% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.8B | 0.3% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $1.7B | 0.1% |
170 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Ask Orin about ASML
Orin answers questions about ASML from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 42.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 36.1×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 42.0×above usual | 36.1× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 14.4×above usual | 9.58× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 34.2×above usual | 27.8× | — |
| P/B | 25.5×above usual | 19.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $2,331 (from $2,100 to $2,623) — 43% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$2,331
$2,100 – $2,623 · +43% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 42.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 35.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASMLASML Holding N.V. | $630B | 42.0× | 34.2× | 54.3% | 34.1% | 64% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $314B | 33.9× | 27.3× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| CAMTCamtek Ltd. | $4B | 31.9× | 34.0× | 50.0% | 24.6% | 19% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $201B | 41.7× | 33.9× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $301B | 35.7× | 29.3× | 51.1% | 32.3% | 72% |
| NVMINova Ltd. | $9B | 34.7× | 31.1× | 57.1% | 28.8% | 20% |
| ONTOOnto Innovation Inc. | $11B | 79.9× | 43.2× | 50.4% | 11.8% | 7% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 42.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now42.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.