ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
ASE Technology remains a buy as AI-driven advanced packaging demand continues to accelerate, with Q2 2026 revenue surging 34% YoY to NT$191B and diluted EPS of NT$9.22 versus NT$3.40 a year earlier, while FY2025 operating margin expanded to 7.9% from 6.8% and EPS grew 27.7% to NT$18.46.
The stock trades at a discount to semiconductor peers on EV/EBITDA (22.6x vs. 27.4x median) and P/S (4.6x vs. 8.0x median), and technicals remain constructive with price at $45.26 above both the 50-day ($39.92) and 200-day ($31.30) moving averages alongside a positive MACD histogram. The principal concern is deeply negative FY2025 free cash flow of NT$-20B driven by capex nearly doubling to NT$163B, but this investment is directed at capturing accelerating LEAP and advanced packaging demand, with LEAP revenue expected to exceed $4B in 2026.
What could go wrong
- Capex-driven cash burn. FY2025 free cash flow was NT$-20B with capex of NT$163B, and total debt rose to NT$264B from NT$201B; if AI packaging demand disappoints, this leverage could compress returns and flexibility.
- Valuation compression risk. At a PE of 53.5x and price near a 52-week high of $47.93, any deceleration in revenue growth or margin expansion could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Margin guidance softness. Recent commentary noted margin guidance was soft due to rapid EMS and capacity ramp, suggesting near-term profitability may lag the topline surge.
- Insider net selling. Over 24 months, insiders net disposed 768K shares with zero open-market acquisitions, though recent activity includes option exercises and grant-related acquisitions rather than outright selling pressure.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · technicals, 8 Oct. Orin's read on ASX; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 218% over twelve months, from $13.23 on 27 Oct 2025 to $42.06 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $47.60 on 13 Oct 2026; the last close is 11.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 21.6M, on 5 Jun 2026).
On file
All ASX filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $423.6M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $374.5M | 0.0% |
| Lazard Asset Management | $359.6M | 0.5% |
| Morgan Stanley | $261.5M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $223.7M | 0.0% |
| Man Group | $174.0M | 0.3% |
| DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral Genossenschafts Bank, Frankfurt am Main | $81.1M | 0.1% |
| Earnest Partners | $64.7M | 0.2% |
| Millennium Management | $56.6M | 0.0% |
56 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 71 Form 4 filings. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 22 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
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Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 46.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 19.9×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 46.8×above usual | 19.9× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 4.03×above usual | 1.08× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.9×above usual | 7.1× | — |
| P/B | 7.3×above usual | 2.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 46.8× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (AMKR 16.0×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | $92B | 46.8× | 19.9× | 19.5% | 8.5% | 17% |
| AMKRAmkor Technology, Inc. | $10B | 16.0× | 7.3× | 16.6% | 8.3% | 13% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 46.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now46.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.