ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. ASX
ASE Technology is executing on a genuine AI-driven advanced packaging supercycle, with FY2025 EPS surging 27.7% to NT$18.46, operating margins expanding (operating income up 24% to NT$51.0B), and Q2 2026 ATM segment revenue up 36.3% YoY. The stock trades at a meaningful discount to peers (P/E 44.3x vs. 57.1x median, EV/EBITDA 18.9x vs. 28.6x median) while technicals have turned constructive — price reclaimed the 50-day MA at $39.54 vs. $38.79 with a bullish MACD histogram crossover to +0.44.
The primary concern is deeply negative FCF of NT$-20B driven by a near-doubling of capex to NT$163B, but this investment is directed at capturing accelerating AI packaging demand and is backed by robust operating cash flow of NT$143B, making it a cyclical rather than structural issue.
What could go wrong
- Capex overbuild. Capex nearly doubled to NT$163B in FY2025 from NT$81.8B, producing NT$-20B FCF; if AI packaging demand disappoints, this capacity could pressure returns and cash flow for multiple years.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to NT$264B from NT$201B YoY alongside negative FCF, raising balance sheet risk if the investment cycle extends longer than expected.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders executed 44 dispositions vs. 6 acquisitions for net selling of NT$-368.5M, signaling limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Absolute valuation stretch. P/E of 44.3x leaves limited margin of safety despite the peer discount; any deceleration in AI-driven revenue growth could trigger a sharp de-rating.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024. Orin's read on ASX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ASX filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Of America /De/ | $423.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $374.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Lazard Asset Management | $359.6M | 0.5% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $261.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $223.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Man Group | $174.0M | 0.3% of fund |
54 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 68 Form 4 filings, net −$368.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 24 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 49.8× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.1× | — | — |
| P/S | 4.29× | — | — |
| P/B | 7.8× | — | — |
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | $97B | 49.8× | 21.1× | 19.5% | 8.5% | 17% |
| ALABAstera Labs, Inc. Common Stock | $62B | 166.1× | 184.7× | 75.1% | 30.7% | 25% |
| CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions Corporation | $27B | 12.7× | 7.0× | 32.0% | 10.3% | 15% |
| HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $83B | 31.0× | 17.1× | 36.0% | 6.6% | 11% |
| MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated | $41B | 104.7× | 27.4× | 60.2% | 8.8% | 7% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $67B | 82.7× | 64.8× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc. | $27B | 11.4× | 8.5× | 10.8% | 5.7% | 25% |
| TERTeradyne, Inc. | $61B | 53.1× | 41.7× | 59.3% | 25.8% | 38% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 6.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.