Atmos Energy Corporation ATO
Atmos Energy delivered strong FY2025 results with revenue of $4.70B (+12.9% YoY), EPS of $7.46 (+9.2% YoY), and an expanding operating margin of 33.2%, while trading at a 20.2x P/E — a 12% discount to the peer median of 22.9x. However, persistent negative FCF of -$1.51B against $3.56B in capex, total debt of $9.30B, and an 87% P/S premium to peers reflect a capital-intensive funding model that tempers the valuation appeal.
Technically the stock sits below both its 50-day ($173.40) and 200-day ($176.03) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram, and while BlackRock's new $2.62B position (9.13% ownership) is a notable bullish signal, the near-term setup remains mixed enough to warrant a hold.
What could go wrong
- Capital intensity and FCF deficit. FY2025 FCF of -$1.51B against $3.56B capex has been negative in four of the last five fiscal years, requiring sustained external financing and growing total debt to $9.30B.
- Valuation premium on revenue basis. P/S of 5.81 is 87% above the peer median of 3.11, and EV/EBITDA of 14.37 is 12.5% above the peer median of 12.78, limiting upside if rate-case outcomes disappoint.
- Technical deterioration. As of 2026-08-19, the stock at $171.31 trades below both its 50-day ($173.40) and 200-day ($176.03) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram of -0.14 and RSI of 45.4.
- Management transition. SR VP Utility Operations John McDill announced retirement in early 2027, with Jeff D. Martinez appointed as successor, introducing execution risk during the handover.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual; derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · FMP FY2025 annual · technicals as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on ATO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ATO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $1.6B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $770.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $720.2M | 0.0% of fund |
95 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 96 Form 4 filings, net $16.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ATO
Orin answers questions about ATO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.4× | 18.1× | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.4× | 13.8× | — |
| P/S | 5.30× | 3.60× | — |
| P/B | 1.7× | 1.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.35σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$185
$179 – $200 · +17% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATOAtmos Energy Corporation | $26B | 18.4× | 13.4× | 61.0% | 28.5% | 10% |
| AEEAmeren Corporation | $28B | 17.4× | 11.8× | 41.1% | 17.9% | 12% |
| AWKAmerican Water Works Company, Inc. | $26B | 23.0× | 14.8× | 47.2% | 21.3% | 10% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $24B | 21.9× | 12.3× | 54.1% | 11.6% | 10% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $26B | 19.3× | 12.5× | 36.7% | 8.1% | 11% |
| ESEversource Energy | $24B | 16.8× | 9.7× | 35.2% | 10.4% | 9% |
| FEFirstEnergy Corp. | $25B | 23.3× | 11.6× | 53.4% | 6.9% | 9% |
| PPLPPL Corporation | $24B | 26.1× | 13.4× | 34.6% | 13.5% | 9% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $96B | 20.0× | 12.0× | 43.4% | 15.4% | 13% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 12.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-175 | $169.43 · −203% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-636 | $169.43 · −476% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.