Aviat Networks, Inc. AVNW
Aviat Networks' Q4 FY2026 results (reported 2026-08-27) delivered a genuine operational inflection—$5.8M in GAAP operating income, $11.9M in adjusted EBITDA on $120.9M in quarterly revenue, and FY2027 guidance for accelerating revenue and adjusted EBITDA, marking six consecutive years of revenue growth. Yet full-year FY2025 (ended 2025-06-27) still carried a $10.6M operating loss, gross margin compression to 32.1%, negative FCF of $7.2M, and total debt up to $90.9M, while a Kaskela Law shareholder investigation (2026-08-19) adds legal overhang.
The stock trades below both its 50-day ($20.928) and 200-day ($21.507) moving averages with an RSI of 41.6, insiders are net sellers at $2.2M over 24 months, and the P/S of 0.63x reflects the market's skepticism. The Q4 inflection is encouraging but unproven—hold pending evidence that operating profitability is sustainable and the legal overhang resolves.
What could go wrong
- Legal investigation. Kaskela Law announced a shareholder investigation on 2026-08-19 into potential securities law violations or fiduciary breaches, which could escalate to formal charges, settlements, or management disruption.
- Margin compression. Gross margin declined from 35.5% in FY2024 to 32.1% in FY2025; if this trend persists it will erode the operating leverage needed to sustain the Q4 FY2026 inflection.
- Debt and FCF deterioration. Total debt surged to $90.9M as of FY2025 from $52.2M in FY2024, while FCF turned negative at $7.2M with capex up to $13M, raising balance sheet concerns if the recovery stalls.
- Q4 GAAP net loss. Despite the operating income improvement, Q4 FY2026 still reported a $1.3M GAAP net loss, showing the company is not yet fully profitable on a bottom-line basis.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: PRNewWire press release, 2026-08-27 · MarketBeat, 2026-08-27 · Zacks Investment Research, 2026-08-27 · FMP fundamentals, FY2025 (period ended 2025-06-27). Orin's read on AVNW; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AVNW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $11.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $6.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $5.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| D. E. Shaw & | $5.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $4.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $4.5M | 0.0% of fund |
33 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 77 Form 4 filings, net −$2.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AVNW
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 103.2× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.5× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.58× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.0× | — | — |
17.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$32
$30 – $36 · +63% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVNWAviat Networks, Inc. | $257M | 103.2× | 10.5× | 31.5% | 0.6% | 1% |
| FEIMFrequency Electronics, Inc. | $831M | 336.9× | 447.7× | 33.0% | 3.7% | 4% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 69.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.