Orin
AVNWNasdaq·Communication Equipment

Aviat Networks, Inc. AVNW

Market cap $257.8MP/E 103.2× trailingGross margin 31.5%Reports Tue 3 Nov, after the close
$19.86
−0.18 (−0.90%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $13.92 – $27.02
Watch
Orin's take
0.58conviction · moderate
Refreshed 28 Aug · take v3. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Aviat Networks' Q4 FY2026 results (reported 2026-08-27) delivered a genuine operational inflection—$5.8M in GAAP operating income, $11.9M in adjusted EBITDA on $120.9M in quarterly revenue, and FY2027 guidance for accelerating revenue and adjusted EBITDA, marking six consecutive years of revenue growth. Yet full-year FY2025 (ended 2025-06-27) still carried a $10.6M operating loss, gross margin compression to 32.1%, negative FCF of $7.2M, and total debt up to $90.9M, while a Kaskela Law shareholder investigation (2026-08-19) adds legal overhang.

The stock trades below both its 50-day ($20.928) and 200-day ($21.507) moving averages with an RSI of 41.6, insiders are net sellers at $2.2M over 24 months, and the P/S of 0.63x reflects the market's skepticism. The Q4 inflection is encouraging but unproven—hold pending evidence that operating profitability is sustainable and the legal overhang resolves.

What could go wrong

  • Legal investigation. Kaskela Law announced a shareholder investigation on 2026-08-19 into potential securities law violations or fiduciary breaches, which could escalate to formal charges, settlements, or management disruption.
  • Margin compression. Gross margin declined from 35.5% in FY2024 to 32.1% in FY2025; if this trend persists it will erode the operating leverage needed to sustain the Q4 FY2026 inflection.
  • Debt and FCF deterioration. Total debt surged to $90.9M as of FY2025 from $52.2M in FY2024, while FCF turned negative at $7.2M with capex up to $13M, raising balance sheet concerns if the recovery stalls.
  • Q4 GAAP net loss. Despite the operating income improvement, Q4 FY2026 still reported a $1.3M GAAP net loss, showing the company is not yet fully profitable on a bottom-line basis.

What would change my mind

Sustained GAAP profitability. Two consecutive quarters of positive GAAP operating income and net income, confirming the Q4 FY2026 inflection is durablebullish
FY2027 guidance delivery. First-half FY2027 results showing revenue acceleration and adjusted EBITDA growth consistent with management guidancebullish
Legal escalation. Kaskela Law investigation escalates to formal securities class action lawsuit or SEC inquirybearish
Gross margin trajectory. Gross margin continues to decline below 32% in FY2026 quarterly results, signaling structural pricing or cost pressuresbearish

Where this comes from: PRNewWire press release, 2026-08-27 · MarketBeat, 2026-08-27 · Zacks Investment Research, 2026-08-27 · FMP fundamentals, FY2025 (period ended 2025-06-27). Orin's read on AVNW; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$11.7M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$6.9M0.0% of fund
State Street$5.7M0.0% of fund
D. E. Shaw &$5.4M0.0% of fund
Franklin Resources$4.8M0.0% of fund
Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management$4.5M0.0% of fund

33 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 77 Form 4 filings, net −$2.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about AVNW

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about AVNW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days

Where it trades

· Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E103.2×53.3×
EV/EBITDA10.5×
P/S0.58×
P/B1.0×
What the price assumes

17.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

12 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$32

$30$36 · +63% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 9 buy or overweight
  • 3 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 336.9× of 1 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
AVNWAviat Networks, Inc.$257M103.2×10.5×31.5%0.6%1%
FEIMFrequency Electronics, Inc.$831M336.9×447.7×33.0%3.7%4%

The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 69.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY18 48.2×FY26 105.9×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $19.86
52-week range$14 – $27
Analyst targets$30 – $36
At sector P/E (53×)$10

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.