Avery Dennison Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Avery Dennison's revenue growth has accelerated meaningfully, with Q2 2026 revenue rising 10.9% YoY to $2.46B and a +17% earnings surprise, signaling that the sluggish FY2025 trend (1.1% revenue growth, 2.4% net income decline to $688M) is giving way to a volume-led recovery reinforced by management's High-Value Category strategy nearing half of sales.
The stock at $167.82 trades at a discount to peers on P/E (18.38x vs 19.64x median) and EV/EBITDA (11.23x vs 14.01x median), while smart money has turned incrementally constructive (score 0.01, 66 funds as of Q2 2026). Persistent insider net selling of $21.2M over 24 months, total debt up to $3.73B, and the stock sitting below both its 50-day ($173.94) and 200-day ($172.41) moving averages temper conviction, but the fundamental inflection and valuation cushion warrant accumulation into the Q3 2026 earnings catalyst on October 29.
What could go wrong
- Leverage creep. Total debt rose to $3.73B in FY2025 from $3.15B in FY2024 while stockholders' equity declined to $2.24B, increasing balance-sheet sensitivity if rate costs rise or demand softens.
- Insider selling persists. Over 24 months insiders net sold $21.2M with zero open-market acquisitions and 26 dispositions; recent sales by the SVP & CIO at $170.68 and SVP & Chief Legal Officer at $171.61 continue the pattern.
- Technical weakness. Stock at $167.82 is below both the 50-day MA ($173.94) and 200-day MA ($172.41), with RSI at 42.2 and a negative MACD histogram (-0.25), indicating near-term downward momentum.
- Margin compression risk. FY2025 operating margin contracted to 12.5% from 12.9% in FY2024 despite revenue growth; if high-value category mix shift fails to deliver, the margin-expansion narrative weakens.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · earnings vs estimates · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on AVY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 0.7% over twelve months, from $180.47 on 27 Oct 2025 to $181.71 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $197.45 on 24 Feb 2026; the last close is 8.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.3M, on 31 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AVY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Wellington Management Group | $939.8M | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $812.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $789.9M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $656.7M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $575.7M | 0.0% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $372.5M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $351.3M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $253.3M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $245.3M | 0.0% |
93 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 244 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$21.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 15 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AVY
Orin answers questions about AVY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 21.6×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.9×below usual | 21.6× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.49×below usual | 1.73× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.9×below usual | 13.0× | — |
| P/B | 6.0×below usual | 7.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $197 (from $175 to $225) — 9% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$197
$175 – $225 · +9% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVYAvery Dennison Corporation | $14B | 19.9× | 11.9× | 29.0% | 7.6% | 31% |
| ALLEAllegion plc | $15B | 22.4× | 15.6× | 45.1% | 15.7% | 33% |
| GGGGraco Inc. | $11B | 21.1× | 14.4× | 52.0% | 22.4% | 20% |
| HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $11B | 16.7× | 11.7× | 12.6% | 5.0% | 13% |
| LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $15B | 26.8× | 17.7× | 35.5% | 12.4% | 38% |
| MASMasco Corporation | $15B | 17.3× | 11.9× | 36.9% | 11.6% | n/m |
| TXTTextron Inc. | $13B | 14.8× | 9.3× | 16.5% | 6.1% | 12% |
| WCCWESCO International, Inc. | $17B | 23.1× | 14.1× | 21.4% | 2.8% | 14% |
- MAS: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now19.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $153 a share — 16% below the $181.91 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $153 | 16% below $181.91 |
| Levered | $107 | 41% below $181.91 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.