Avery Dennison Corporation AVY
Avery Dennison trades at a reasonable but not deeply discounted valuation versus peers (P/E 20.06x vs 21.25x median, EV/EBITDA 12.80x vs 14.24x median as of FY2025), but the fundamental picture is mixed: FY2025 revenue grew just 1.1% to $8.86B while net income declined 2.4% to $688M and operating income fell to $1.10B from $1.13B. The stock has already rallied to $183.16, above both the 50-day ($165.65) and 200-day ($172.83) moving averages with RSI at 66.9, leaving limited near-term upside, and insiders have been net sellers ($11.2M net dispositions over 24 months) with no cluster buying.
Solid FCF of $712M and a 8.04% FCF margin support the floor, but rising total debt to $3.73B from $3.15B and anemic top-line growth warrant patience rather than new commitment at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Leverage deterioration. Total debt rose to $3.73B in FY2025 from $3.15B in FY2024 while stockholders' equity declined to $2.24B from $2.32B, increasing balance-sheet risk if rates stay elevated.
- Stalling earnings momentum. FY2025 net income fell 2.4% YoY and operating income declined to $1.10B from $1.13B despite revenue growth, suggesting margin pressure that could compress the valuation discount further.
- Technical overextension. RSI at 66.9 with price at $183.16 well above the 50-day MA of $165.65 increases the risk of a pullback after the recent rally.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 35,802 shares for $11.2M, including recent sales by the SVP and Chief Legal Officer in August 2026, with no offsetting cluster buying.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 and FY2024 annual · FMP FY2025 and FY2024 annual · peer_relative. Orin's read on AVY; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AVY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $939.8M | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $812.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $789.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $656.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $575.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Ameriprise Financial | $372.5M | 0.1% of fund |
90 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 244 Form 4 filings, net −$11.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 15 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AVY
Orin answers questions about AVY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.5× | 21.5× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.0× | 13.5× | — |
| P/S | 1.40× | 1.73× | — |
| P/B | 5.6× | 7.3× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.09σ from its own mean).
6.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$200
$175 – $225 · +17% against today's price
- 13 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVYAvery Dennison Corporation | $13B | 18.5× | 12.0× | 29.0% | 7.6% | 31% |
| ALLEAllegion plc | $13B | 19.9× | 14.7× | 44.8% | 15.4% | 32% |
| GGGGraco Inc. | $12B | 23.9× | 16.4× | 52.6% | 23.5% | 20% |
| HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $10B | 15.8× | 12.0× | 12.6% | 5.0% | 13% |
| LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $15B | 26.4× | 17.4× | 36.0% | 12.4% | 37% |
| MASMasco Corporation | $13B | 15.5× | 10.9× | 36.9% | 11.6% | -406% |
| TXTTextron Inc. | $13B | 14.3× | 9.1× | 16.5% | 6.1% | 12% |
| WCCWESCO International, Inc. | $18B | 24.7× | 14.8× | 21.4% | 2.8% | 14% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 7.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $136 | $158.89 · −15% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $124 | $158.89 · −22% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.