American Water Works Company, Inc. AWK
American Water Works remains a hold at $138.23 as of 2026-08-31. The regulated water utility continues to deliver dependable top-line growth—revenue rose 9.7% to $5.14B in 2025 with EPS up 5.8% to $5.70—but the investment case is constrained by structurally negative free cash flow of -$1.07B on $3.13B of capex, total debt climbing to $15.9B, and valuation premiums of 94% on P/S (5.20x vs. 2.69x peer median) and 19% on EV/EBITDA (15.13x vs. 12.67x median) that leave little margin of safety.
Smart money conviction is negligible (score 0.0036 as of Q2 2026 with fund count declining from 62 to 58), and the stock trades above both its 50-day ($134.16) and 200-day ($131.37) moving averages, suggesting momentum is intact but upside is limited at current multiples.
What could go wrong
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $15.9B in 2025 from $12.4B in 2023 while FCF remains deeply negative at -$1.07B, raising financing cost sensitivity in a higher-rate environment.
- Valuation premium. P/S of 5.20x is 93.6% above the peer median of 2.69x and EV/EBITDA of 15.13x is 19.4% above the 12.67x median, pricing in sustained growth that any regulatory setback would challenge.
- Capex burden. Capital expenditure of $3.13B in 2025 against operating cash flow of $2.06B creates a persistent funding gap requiring external financing.
- Declining institutional interest. Smart money fund count fell from 62 in Q1 2026 to 58 in Q2 2026 with a near-zero score of 0.0036, indicating no meaningful accumulation by sophisticated investors.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 · FMP FY2025/FY2023 · peer_relative. Orin's read on AWK; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AWK filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 17 Sep | — | on file |
| 8-K | 16 Sep | — | on file |
| 8-K | 31 Aug | On August 28, 2026, Administrative Law Judges issued an interim order in Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission proceedings regarding the proposed merger of Essential Utilities, Inc. | read |
| 13G/A | 13 Aug | — | on file |
| 8-K | 29 Jul | American Water Works Company, Inc. | read |
| 10-Q | 29 Jul | For the three months ended June 30, 2026, American Water Works Company, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 16 Jul | American Water Works Company, Inc. | read |
| 8-K/A | 6 Jul | Missouri-American Water Company filed a rate request with the Missouri Public Service Commission seeking annualized incremental revenue of approximately $179 million, excluding… | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $2.0B | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.6B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $684.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $664.2M | 0.0% of fund |
85 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 40 Form 4 filings, net −$2.7M. Of the 40 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AWK
Orin answers questions about AWK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.0× | 27.0× | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.8× | 15.9× | — |
| P/S | 5.00× | 6.02× | — |
| P/B | 2.2× | 2.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.96σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$141
$130 – $162 · +5% against today's price
- 14 buy or overweight
- 14 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWKAmerican Water Works Company, Inc. | $26B | 23.0× | 14.8× | 47.2% | 21.3% | 10% |
| AEEAmeren Corporation | $28B | 17.4× | 11.8× | 41.1% | 17.9% | 12% |
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $20B | 18.7× | 12.4× | 69.7% | 11.6% | 11% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $24B | 21.9× | 12.3× | 54.1% | 11.6% | 10% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $26B | 19.3× | 12.5× | 36.7% | 8.1% | 11% |
| FEFirstEnergy Corp. | $25B | 23.3× | 11.6× | 53.4% | 6.9% | 9% |
| PPLPPL Corporation | $24B | 26.1× | 13.4× | 34.6% | 13.5% | 9% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $96B | 20.0× | 12.0× | 43.4% | 15.4% | 13% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 15.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-360 | $127.06 · −383% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-477 | $127.06 · −475% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.