American Express Company AXP
American Express remains a hold. FY2025 fundamentals are solid — revenue of $80.46B grew 8.44% YoY with EPS of $15.38 up 9.7% and $16.0B in free cash flow — but the stock at $333.20 now trades below both its 50-day ($342.61) and 200-day ($337.94) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram and RSI of 43.4, signaling deteriorating momentum.
Valuation is mixed: the P/E of 20.21 sits 28.3% above the peer median of 15.75, while EV/EBITDA of 9.66 remains a 58.7% discount to the peer median of 23.39. A GuruFocus DCF pegs fair value at $320, modestly below the current price, limiting near-term upside. Smart money improved to +0.4069 as of Q2 2026 from -0.382 in Q1 2026, a constructive offset to the weak technicals.
What could go wrong
- Technical breakdown. Price at $333.20 is below both MA50 ($342.61) and MA200 ($337.94) with MACD histogram negative (-0.67) and RSI at 43.4, suggesting further downside risk if support fails.
- Valuation compression. P/E of 20.21 is 28.3% above the peer median of 15.75; if growth slows from the 8.44% FY2025 revenue pace, the premium multiple could contract.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net disposed $113.2M in value despite net positive share count; the most recent transaction was a sale by the Chief Colleague Experience Officer at $337.41 on 2026-08-18.
- Credit cycle exposure. Total debt of $57.76B against equity of $33.47B leaves leverage elevated; a deterioration in credit quality could pressure net margin of 13.46%.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 annual · Technicals as of 2026-08-28 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on AXP; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AXP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $51.3B | 17.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $11.9B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $9.8B | 0.3% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $7.0B | 0.4% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.7B | 0.3% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $4.4B | 0.2% of fund |
153 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 187 Form 4 filings, net −$113.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 17 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AXP
Orin answers questions about AXP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.3× | 16.4× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8× | 12.0× | — |
| P/S | 2.43× | 2.85× | — |
| P/B | 6.0× | 5.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.02σ from its own mean).
1.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $16.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$378
$315 – $415 · +25% against today's price
- 23 buy or overweight
- 30 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXPAmerican Express Company | $204B | 18.3× | 8.8× | 84.3% | 13.6% | 34% |
| CATCaterpillar Inc. | $374B | 34.8× | 23.7× | 33.9% | 14.5% | 54% |
| COFCapital One Financial Corporation | $120B | 12.1× | 5.0× | 66.2% | 13.4% | 9% |
| GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $276B | 14.3× | 26.5× | 57.3% | 17.8% | 17% |
| MAMastercard Incorporated | $491B | 30.7× | 22.8× | 100.0% | 46.3% | 232% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | $45B | 9.9× | 6.8× | 45.8% | 14.4% | 24% |
| VVisa Inc. | $675B | 30.7× | 23.6× | 80.2% | 50.8% | 61% |
| WFCWells Fargo & Company | $248B | 11.7× | 15.2× | 64.5% | 17.5% | 13% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 28.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $219 | $316.23 · −31% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $391 | $316.23 · +24% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.