Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. AXTA
Axalta's fundamentals are improving — Q2 2026 revenue grew 3.1% YoY (first positive growth in five quarters), operating margin expanded to 14.9% for full-year 2025 from 13.4% in 2024, and the company has beaten EPS estimates by double digits in two of the last three reported quarters — yet the stock has fallen from roughly $37 to $32.43, trading below its 50-day MA of $35.03 and nearing its 200-day MA of $32.07 with an RSI of 36.3. The pending AkzoNobel merger with $600M in targeted synergies represents the dominant value catalyst, but the fixed exchange ratio means AXTA shareholders' ultimate value depends on deal completion and AkzoNobel's share price, creating binary outcome risk.
With valuation mixed (19.9 PE vs 17.3 peer median, but 1.35 PS vs 2.35 peer median) and technicals deteriorating, patience is warranted until either the deal closes or the stock stabilizes at support.
What could go wrong
- Merger execution risk. The all-stock AkzoNobel merger with $600M targeted synergies hinges on regulatory approval and integration; a breakup or delay would remove the primary catalyst and likely reset the shares lower.
- Revenue softness persists. Full-year 2025 revenue declined 3.0% to $5.12B from $5.28B in 2024; while Q2 2026 showed 3.1% YoY growth, sustained volume recovery remains unconfirmed and headline growth is aided by price/mix and acquisitions.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $32.43 is below its 50-day MA of $35.03 and barely above its 200-day MA of $32.07, with MACD histogram at -0.26 and RSI at 36.3; a breach of the 200-day could trigger further selling.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders have net sold $10.5M in value across 301 transactions, with 170 dispositions vs 131 acquisitions, though recent activity is primarily RSU vesting and tax withholding rather than open-market selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q2 2026 · derived_metrics FY2025 and FY2024 · fundamentals FY2025 and FY2024 · earnings_surprises 2026-07-28. Orin's read on AXTA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AXTA filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 13 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 8-K | 5 Aug | Axalta shareholders approved the merger with Akzo Nobel N.V. | read |
| 10-Q | 29 Jul | Net sales for the three months ended June 30, 2026, were $1,346 million, an increase of 3.1% year-over-year from $1,305 million. | read |
| 8-K | 29 Jul | Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. | read |
| 8-K | 28 Jul | Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. | read |
| 8-K | 23 Jul | Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. | read |
| 8-K | 4 Jun | Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $332.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $325.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $228.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| D. E. Shaw & | $224.0M | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $207.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Millennium Management | $187.1M | 0.1% of fund |
65 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 301 Form 4 filings, net −$10.5M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AXTA
Orin answers questions about AXTA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.8× | — | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.34× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.7× | — | — |
4.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$37
$30 – $47 · +12% against today's price
- 9 buy or overweight
- 18 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd. | $7B | 19.8× | 10.3× | 32.6% | 6.8% | 15% |
| EMNEastman Chemical Company | $8B | 17.1× | 9.5× | 19.9% | 5.0% | 7% |
| ESIElement Solutions Inc | $8B | 46.9× | 27.2× | 38.4% | 5.7% | 7% |
| EXPEagle Materials Inc. | $5B | 13.9× | 9.5× | 27.0% | 17.3% | 27% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 15.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.