Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Axalta's fundamentals are improving — Q2 2026 revenue grew 3.1% YoY (first positive growth in five quarters), operating margin expanded to 14.9% for full-year 2025 from 13.4% in 2024, and the company has beaten EPS estimates by double digits in two of the last three reported quarters — yet the stock has fallen from roughly $37 to $32.43, trading below its 50-day MA of $35.03 and nearing its 200-day MA of $32.07 with an RSI of 36.3.
The pending AkzoNobel merger with $600M in targeted synergies represents the dominant value catalyst, but the fixed exchange ratio means AXTA shareholders' ultimate value depends on deal completion and AkzoNobel's share price, creating binary outcome risk. With valuation mixed (19.9 PE vs 17.3 peer median, but 1.35 PS vs 2.35 peer median) and technicals deteriorating, patience is warranted until either the deal closes or the stock stabilizes at support.
What could go wrong
- Merger execution risk. The all-stock AkzoNobel merger with $600M targeted synergies hinges on regulatory approval and integration; a breakup or delay would remove the primary catalyst and likely reset the shares lower.
- Revenue softness persists. Full-year 2025 revenue declined 3.0% to $5.12B from $5.28B in 2024; while Q2 2026 showed 3.1% YoY growth, sustained volume recovery remains unconfirmed and headline growth is aided by price/mix and acquisitions.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $32.43 is below its 50-day MA of $35.03 and barely above its 200-day MA of $32.07, with MACD histogram at -0.26 and RSI at 36.3; a breach of the 200-day could trigger further selling.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders have net sold $10.5M in value across 301 transactions, with 170 dispositions vs 131 acquisitions, though recent activity is primarily RSU vesting and tax withholding rather than open-market selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates, 28 Jul · technicals, 23 Sep. Orin's read on AXTA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 18.8% over twelve months, from $29.06 on 27 Oct 2025 to $34.52 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $38.19 on 7 Aug 2026; the last close is 9.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 18.7M, on 18 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AXTA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $668.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $332.0M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $325.8M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $228.9M | 0.0% |
| D. E. Shaw | $224.0M | 0.1% |
| FMR | $207.4M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $187.1M | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $187.0M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $139.7M | 0.0% |
| Sessa Capital IM | $121.1M | 2.0% |
66 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 293 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$492K. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AXTA
Orin answers questions about AXTA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 28.1×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.2×below usual | 28.1× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 1.43×near usual | 1.42× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0×below usual | 12.3× | — |
| P/B | 2.9×below usual | 3.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $39.50 (from $32 to $47) — 14% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$39.50
$32 – $47 · +14% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 16.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd. | $7B | 21.2× | 10.0× | 32.6% | 6.8% | 15% |
| FULH.B. Fuller Company | $3B | 13.6× | 8.6× | 32.8% | 5.6% | 10% |
| PPGPPG Industries, Inc. | $25B | 16.1× | 12.2× | 29.5% | 9.4% | n/m |
| SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company | $79B | 29.7× | 20.2× | 48.7% | 10.7% | 27% |
- PPG: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $53 a share — 54% above the $34.41 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $53 | 54% above $34.41 |
| Levered | $32 | 6% below $34.41 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.