Acuity Brands, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Acuity Brands delivered a strong FY2026 (ended 31 Aug), with gross margin expanding to 50.6% from 47.8%, operating margin recovering to 15.9% from 13.7%, and diluted EPS surging 36.1% to $17.05, while total debt was reduced from $1.0B to $697.4M and FCF margin improved to 16.1%.
At 17.32x trailing earnings — a 36.3% discount to the peer median of 27.20x — and 10.22x EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 19.05x, the stock prices in concerns about decelerating revenue growth (full-year 6.8%, with quarterly YoY growth cooling from 20.2% in Q1 to 2.9% in Q4) but not the magnitude of the profitability recovery. The post-earnings pullback to $303.25, below both the 50-day ($322.30) and 200-day ($310.94) moving averages, offers an attractive entry for a company converting improved margins into $747.9M of free cash flow.
What could go wrong
- Revenue growth stall. Quarterly YoY revenue growth decelerated from 20.2% in Q1 FY2026 to 2.9% in Q4 FY2026, and Q4 revenue missed Wall Street estimates, suggesting the core lighting business is softening.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 31,395 shares for $10.26M, with the CFO selling 2,000 shares at $329.62 in September 2026 and the General Counsel selling 1,200 shares at $365.65 in July 2026.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $303.25 trades below both the 50-day MA ($322.30) and 200-day MA ($310.94) with RSI at 45.91, indicating bearish momentum that could persist if revenue concerns weigh on sentiment.
- Smart money neutrality. The smart money score as of 30 Jun is -0.00, essentially flat, down from 0.02 in December 2025, suggesting institutional conviction is fading.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison · quarterly results. Orin's read on AYI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 12.8% over twelve months, from $370.46 on 27 Oct 2025 to $323.11 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $376.69 on 5 Jan 2026; the last close is 14.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.7M, on 25 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All AYI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| BlackRock | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $541.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $515.8M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $471.0M | 0.2% |
| State Street | $363.8M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $289.5M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $262.7M | 0.0% |
| Wellington Management Group | $247.9M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $203.9M | 0.0% |
76 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 71 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$9.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 11 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AYI
Orin answers questions about AYI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 18.6×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.5×near usual | 18.6× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 2.08×near usual | 2.05× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.0×near usual | 11.4× | — |
| P/B | 3.3×near usual | 3.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $375 (from $348 to $415) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$375
$348 – $415 · +16% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 26.5×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AYIAcuity Brands, Inc. | $10B | 18.5× | 11.0× | 50.6% | 11.4% | 19% |
| ALNTAllient Inc. | $1B | 33.8× | 16.5× | 33.2% | 6.2% | 12% |
| ATKRAtkore Inc. | $3B | lost money | n/m | 19.6% | −5.5% | −12% |
| HUBBHubbell Incorporated | $23B | 25.4× | 17.4× | 35.4% | 13.8% | 23% |
| KEKimball Electronics, Inc. | $491M | 24.3× | 5.1× | 8.1% | 1.4% | 4% |
| LYTSLSI Industries Inc. | $664M | 27.7× | 16.4× | 24.4% | 3.0% | n/m |
- ATKR: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- LYTS: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- ATKR: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $209 a share — 35% below the $322.01 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $209 | 35% below $322.01 |
| Levered | $238 | 26% below $322.01 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.