AutoZone, Inc. AZO
AutoZone's FY2026 quarterly revenue growth reaccelerated above 8% in Q1 through Q3 before decelerating to 5.6% in Q4 (ended 2026-08-29), with Q4 EPS of $55.81 beating estimates by 3.6%. Despite the improved top-line trajectory versus FY2025's full-year growth of just 2.43%, the stock remains in a technical downtrend at $2,843.34 — 14.5% below its 200-day moving average of $3,321.41 — and trades at a 5% P/E premium to the peer median of 27.81.
With FY2025 operating margin having compressed to 19.06% from 20.49% and Q4 revenue missing estimates, the recovery is real but unfinished, making this a hold pending evidence that growth has stabilized and margins are re-expanding.
What could go wrong
- Growth deceleration. Q4 FY2026 revenue growth slowed to 5.6% from 8%+ in the prior three quarters, suggesting the FY2026 reacceleration may be fading.
- Valuation premium. P/E of 29.2 sits 5% above the peer median of 27.81 and EV/EBITDA of 20.77 is 14% above the peer median of 18.21, limiting upside if growth disappoints.
- Margin compression. FY2025 operating margin fell to 19.06% from 20.49% and FCF margin declined to 9.45% from 10.45%, with negative stockholders' equity of -$3.41B and $12.29B in total debt.
- Technical breakdown. Stock trades 14.5% below its 200-day MA of $3,321.41 and 4.7% below its 50-day MA of $2,984.02, with MACD histogram negative at -3.82.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results · quarterly_results · derived_metrics · technicals (as of 2026-09-23). Orin's read on AZO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All AZO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $4.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
94 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 184 Form 4 filings, net −$13.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AZO
Orin answers questions about AZO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.7× | 18.0× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.5× | 14.1× | — |
| P/S | 3.38× | 2.68× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.98σ from its own mean).
11.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$3594
$3000 – $4230 · +25% against today's price
- 33 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZOAutoZone, Inc. | $46B | 28.7× | 20.5× | 51.9% | 11.9% | -53% |
| CPRTCopart, Inc. | $27B | 18.5× | 12.1× | 44.7% | 31.8% | 16% |
| FFord Motor Company | $52B | — | — | 10.8% | -3.9% | -19% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $76B | 41.9× | 13.9× | 5.7% | 1.0% | 3% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $69B | 44.7× | 26.6× | 44.1% | 12.7% | -28% |
| MARMarriott International, Inc. | $92B | 36.6× | 23.1× | 20.2% | 9.6% | -67% |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $71B | 27.1× | 19.9× | 51.6% | 14.3% | -232% |
| ROSTRoss Stores, Inc. | $75B | 28.1× | 18.4× | 29.9% | 10.8% | 42% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 11.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $4915 | $3145.11 · +56% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $4937 | $3145.11 · +57% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.