AutoZone, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
AutoZone's FY2026 revenue growth reaccelerated to 7.4% from 2.4% in FY2025, with Q4 marking the third consecutive quarterly earnings beat, yet operating margin continued its three-year compression from 20.5% in FY2024 to 18.3%.
The stock trades at a P/E of 18.23, roughly 33% below the peer median of 27.07, but remains in a technical downtrend at $2,846.27 — below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The growth recovery and deep valuation discount are attractive, but persistent margin erosion and weak technicals warrant a hold pending evidence that profitability has stabilized.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Operating margin has compressed for three consecutive years, from 20.5% in FY2024 to 19.1% in FY2025 to 18.3% in FY2026, suggesting structural cost or mix headwinds.
- Technical downtrend. Stock at $2,846.27 trades below both its 50-day MA of $2,951.68 and 200-day MA of $3,288.25, indicating sustained selling pressure.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the past 24 months, insiders net sold approximately $205.6M in shares with 68 dispositions versus only 3 acquisitions.
- Leverage on negative equity. Total debt of $12.45B against negative stockholders' equity of -$2.50B limits financial flexibility if growth or margins deteriorate further.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · FY24 and FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison · technicals, 7 Oct. Orin's read on AZO; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 17.6% over twelve months, from $3,814.21 on 27 Oct 2025 to $3,143.16 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $3,967.95 on 26 Nov 2025; the last close is 20.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.0M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All AZO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase | $4.0B | 0.2% |
| BlackRock | $3.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Royal Bank of Canada | $993.9M | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $906.0M | 0.1% |
97 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 202 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$205.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about AZO
Orin answers questions about AZO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 20.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 19.0×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.1×above usual | 19.0× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 2.52×below usual | 2.68× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.1×near usual | 15.4× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $3,600 (from $3,000 to $4,230) — 15% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$3,600
$3,000 – $4,230 · +15% against the last close
- 18 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 20.1× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (GPC 468×, ORLY 28.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZOAutoZone, Inc. | $51B | 20.1× | 15.1× | 52.3% | 12.6% | n/m |
| GPCGenuine Parts Company | $17B | 468× | 30.9× | 36.4% | 0.1% | 1% |
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $73B | 28.3× | 19.6× | 51.6% | 14.3% | n/m |
- AZO, ORLY: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 20.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now20.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $4,564 a share — 45% above the $3,147.33 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $4,564 | 45% above $3,147.33 |
| Levered | $4,682 | 49% above $3,147.33 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.