The Boeing Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Boeing is mid-turnaround with genuine momentum — FY2025 revenue grew 34.5% YoY to $89.5B and quarterly operating income flipped positive in Q1 and Q2 2026 ($448M and $78M respectively) — but the stock trades at 72.5x P/E versus a 21.0x peer median (a 245% premium) and 27.6x EV/EBITDA versus 14.4x, pricing in a recovery that has not yet reached free cash flow (still -$1.9B in FY2025) or sustainable net income (Q2 2026 net loss of $444M).
The just-averted white-collar strike and the $20B Navy F/A-XX fighter contract are meaningful catalysts that could accelerate the defense revenue trajectory, but with the stock at $193.56, below both its 50-day ($212.33) and 200-day ($220.75) moving averages, insiders net-selling over the trailing 24 months ($14.2M net dispositions), and a Pomerantz securities investigation underway, the risk/reward is balanced rather than attractive. Hold until free cash flow turns sustainably positive and operating margin expands beyond the razor-thin 0.3% level seen in Q2 2026.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. At 72.5x P/E vs 21.0x peer median and 27.6x EV/EBITDA vs 14.4x median, BA is priced for perfection despite still-negative free cash flow of -$1.9B in FY2025 and a net loss in Q2 2026 of $444M.
- Leverage and balance sheet. Total debt of $54.4B against stockholders' equity of only $5.5B as of FY2025 limits financial flexibility and amplifies risk if revenue recovery stalls or program costs escalate.
- Execution and labor risk. Although the SPEEA white-collar contract was approved on October 1, 2026, Boeing was stung by a mechanics strike in 2024 and faces ongoing program execution challenges across commercial and defense segments.
- Legal overhang. Pomerantz LLP announced a securities investigation on behalf of BA investors on October 1, 2026, adding legal uncertainty to an already complex turnaround story.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 FY26 results · peer comparison · technicals. Orin's read on BA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 24.6% over twelve months, from $223.00 on 27 Oct 2025 to $168.18 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $252.15 on 23 Jan 2026; the last close is 33.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 46.8M, on 27 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All BA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $13.2B | 0.2% |
| FMR | $12.8B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $11.1B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $8.2B | 0.2% |
| Capital World Investors | $6.6B | 0.8% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $2.4B | 0.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $2.4B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.3B | 0.1% |
157 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 144 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$10.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BA
Orin answers questions about BA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — below its usual level (87.2×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.6×below usual | 87.2× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.40×below usual | 1.85× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1×below usual | 56.9× | — |
| P/B | 20.1×below usual | 30.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $268 (from $225 to $305) — 60% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$268
$225 – $305 · +60% against the last close
- 18 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 24.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAThe Boeing Company | $133B | 17.6× | 14.1× | 9.4% | 8.1% | 127% |
| GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation | $96B | 21.3× | 15.1× | 15.4% | 8.2% | 17% |
| GEGE Aerospace | $309B | 34.2× | 24.9× | 35.2% | 17.3% | 51% |
| LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $48B | 26.0× | 14.5× | 25.5% | 8.2% | 9% |
| LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | $144B | 22.0× | 15.1× | 11.7% | 8.2% | 79% |
| NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation | $78B | 17.4× | 12.3× | 20.0% | 10.4% | 26% |
| RTXRTX Corporation | $263B | 31.2× | 17.4× | 21.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.