The Boeing Company BA
Boeing's FY2025 results show real recovery progress — revenue grew 34.5% YoY to $89.5B and net income turned positive at $2.2B — but operating income remains deeply negative at -$5.4B and free cash flow is still -$1.9B, meaning reported profitability is driven by non-operating items rather than core execution. The stock trades at 77.8x P/E versus a 23.3x peer median (a 234% premium) and 29.2x EV/EBITDA versus a 15.8x median, pricing in a recovery not yet visible in cash generation.
Technicals have deteriorated with the stock at $207.78, below both its 50-day ($220.18) and 200-day ($219.94) moving averages, and a SPEEA strike authorized with nearly 88-90% approval adds near-term labor risk ahead of the October 6 contract expiration. Hold until operating income inflects positive and free cash flow turns sustainably green.
What could go wrong
- Labor strike. SPEEA union authorized a strike with nearly 88-90% approval; contracts expire October 6, which could disrupt the production ramp and delay the recovery
- Persistent operating losses. FY2025 operating income of -$5.4B and free cash flow of -$1.9B indicate the core business remains loss-making despite the revenue recovery
- Valuation compression. At 77.8x P/E (234% premium to the 23.3x peer median) and 29.2x EV/EBITDA (85% premium to 15.8x median), there is limited margin of safety if the recovery stalls
- Thin gross margins. FY2025 gross margin of 4.8% is far below historical norms for a major aerospace OEM, leaving little buffer against cost overruns or production disruptions
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative · technicals as of 2026-08-31. Orin's read on BA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All BA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $12.8B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $11.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $8.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $6.6B | 0.8% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% of fund |
154 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 144 Form 4 filings, net −$14.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BA
Orin answers questions about BA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 74.9× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.3× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.68× | 1.85× | — |
| P/B | 25.9× | — | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.82σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$273
$250 – $305 · +37% against today's price
- 38 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAThe Boeing Company | $158B | 74.9× | 28.3× | 4.7% | 2.6% | 105% |
| ETNEaton Corporation plc | $170B | 44.5× | 29.6× | 35.9% | 12.8% | 20% |
| GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation | $93B | 20.6× | 15.2× | 15.4% | 8.2% | 17% |
| HONHoneywell International Inc. | $67B | 8.2× | 7.4× | 36.6% | 22.7% | 42% |
| LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $45B | 24.0× | 14.6× | 25.5% | 8.2% | 9% |
| LMTLockheed Martin Corporation | $121B | 19.3× | 14.0× | 11.8% | 8.2% | 86% |
| NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation | $73B | 16.3× | 11.7× | 20.1% | 10.5% | 27% |
| RTXRTX Corporation | $259B | 33.4× | 18.0× | 20.3% | 8.3% | 12% |
| UNPUnion Pacific Corporation | $164B | 22.3× | 14.5× | 45.5% | 28.8% | 39% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 248.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-466 | $208.35 · −324% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-199 | $208.35 · −196% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.