Orin
BACNYSE·Banks - Diversified

Bank of America Corporation BAC

Market cap $397.4BP/E 12.7× trailingGross margin 59.3%Reports Wed 14 Oct, before the open
$56.00
−0.20 (−0.36%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $46.12 – $65.23
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Bank of America's earnings trajectory remains solid—FY2025 EPS of $3.82 grew 18.6% YoY, operating margin expanded to 19.7%, and total debt was cut from $658B to $366B—but the stock at $64.23 now trades well above both its 50-day ($60.04) and 200-day ($54.28) moving averages with an RSI of 64.6, suggesting much of the improvement is priced in. Valuation is fair rather than cheap: P/E of 14.56x is in line with the peer median of 14.60x, but P/S of 2.57x carries a 25.4% premium.

Smart money has improved meaningfully (smscore 0.42 as of Q2 2026 vs -0.26 in Q1 2026), yet insiders remain consistent net sellers (-$141M over 24 months) and Berkshire Hathaway has been trimming for eight straight quarters, capping upside conviction.

What could go wrong

  • Technical exhaustion. RSI at 64.6 and price $4.19 above the 50-day MA ($60.04) leave limited room for upside before overbought conditions trigger a pullback.
  • Insider and Berkshire selling. Net insider selling of -$141M over 24 months and Berkshire's eight-quarter trimming streak signal that large holders see better uses of capital.
  • Jio Credit capital deployment. The $1.9B investment for up to 49.9% of Jio Credit ties capital to an unproven India NBFC venture, with uncertain returns timeline.
  • Revenue stagnation. FY2025 revenue of $191.6B declined 0.45% YoY, meaning EPS growth is driven by cost control and debt reduction rather than top-line expansion.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 earnings beat with NII acceleration. Net interest income grows sequentially and EPS exceeds consensus, confirming the earnings momentum is sustainable beyond cost cuts.bullish
Smart money score deterioration. Q3 2026 13F smart money score falls back below 0.0, reversing the improvement from -0.26 to +0.42 seen in Q2 2026.bearish
Break below 50-day MA. Stock closes below $60.04 (50-day MA) on volume, signaling the uptrend from the $54.28 200-day MA has stalled.bearish
Credit cost normalization. Provision for credit losses rises materially QoQ, indicating asset quality deterioration in the loan book.bearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics · FMP FY2024 and FY2025 fundamentals · peer_relative composite · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on BAC; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Berkshire Hathaway$27.5B9.2% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$24.0B0.5% of fund
State Street$17.1B0.5% of fund
Fmr$10.8B0.5% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$9.8B0.4% of fund
Geode Capital Management$8.9B0.5% of fund

178 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 498 Form 4 filings, net −$142.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about BAC

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Financial Services
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E12.7×11.8×21.6×
EV/EBITDA24.1×16.1×
P/S2.04×2.11×
P/B1.3×1.2×

Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.88σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

13.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $12.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

54 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$66

$59$75 · +18% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 35 buy or overweight
  • 18 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 14.0× of 3 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
BACBank of America Corporation$397B12.7×24.1×59.3%17.2%11%
CCitigroup Inc.$226B14.0×23.1×46.6%10.2%8%
GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.$276B14.3×26.5×57.3%17.8%17%
WFCWells Fargo & Company$248B11.7×15.2×64.5%17.5%13%

The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 9.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 49.7×FY25 14.2×

What its sector has traded at

Financial Services
FY14 29.6×FY26 23.8×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$33$55.11 · −40%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$-3$55.11 · −106%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $56.00
52-week range$46 – $65
Analyst targets$59 – $75
Standard DCF$33 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $55.11
Levered DCF$-3 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $55.11
At own 5y-median P/E (12×)$52
At 5y P/E range (10–13×)$43 – $59
At sector P/E (22×)$95

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.