Ball Corporation BALL
Ball Corporation's post-divestiture operating leverage is materializing—FY2025 operating margin expanded to 10.56% from 8.41% in FY2024 with FCF recovering to $788M from -$369M—and Q2 2026 results confirm continued momentum with global volumes up 4.3% and comparable EPS of $1.03 beating the $0.99 consensus. At 17.47x P/E, an 8.5% discount to the peer median of 19.09x, and management reaffirming 2026 guidance for 10% comparable EPS growth and FCF above $900M, the risk/reward remains favorable despite near-term technical weakness with a negative MACD histogram and RSI at 44.8 as of 2026-08-18.
What could go wrong
- Elevated leverage. Total debt stood at $7.012B at FY2025 year-end, up from $6.017B in FY2024, against stockholders' equity of $5.421B, leaving limited balance-sheet flexibility if end-market demand softens.
- Technical deterioration. As of 2026-08-18, MACD histogram is negative at -0.464 with the stock at $61.67, barely above the 50-day MA of $61.38, suggesting waning near-term momentum after the Q2 earnings pop.
- Thin gross margin. FY2025 gross margin of 14.86% leaves little cushion against aluminum cost inflation or pricing pressure from large beverage customers.
- Tepid smart money. Smart money score is only 0.011 as of Q2 2026 with 60 funds, well below levels that would signal conviction accumulation.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · fundamentals FY2025 and FY2024 · news (Zacks and GuruFocus, 2026-08-04) · peer_relative. Orin's read on BALL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All BALL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $837.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $768.4M | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $718.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $460.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $441.1M | 0.0% of fund |
84 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 183 Form 4 filings, net $5.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BALL
Orin answers questions about BALL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.1× | 22.5× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.2× | 14.8× | — |
| P/S | 1.05× | 1.43× | — |
| P/B | 2.6× | 4.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.45σ from its own mean).
7.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$75
$72 – $78 · +32% against today's price
- 17 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALLBall Corporation | $15B | 16.1× | 10.2× | 16.4% | 6.6% | 17% |
| AMCRAmcor plc | $19B | 17.6× | 9.9× | 20.0% | 4.7% | 9% |
| DECKDeckers Outdoor Corporation | $11B | 11.1× | 6.9× | 57.8% | 18.4% | 41% |
| DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc. | $10B | 16.6× | 14.8× | 40.0% | 11.9% | -15% |
| WYNNWynn Resorts, Limited | $8B | 18.4× | 9.8× | 38.6% | 6.1% | -175% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 6.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $28 | $55.68 · −49% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-19 | $55.68 · −134% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.