Becton, Dickinson and Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
BDX remains a hold ahead of its fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report, as the shares have rallied to $191.75 — above both the 50-day ($183.88) and 200-day ($164.09) moving averages — despite three consecutive quarters of deteriorating fundamentals, including a 9.5% Q3 FY2026 revenue decline to $4.98B and a Q2 FY2026 net loss of $311M.
At 57.76x trailing earnings, BDX trades at a 149% premium to the peer median PE of 23.17x, yet EV/EBITDA of 15.32x sits below the peer median of 18.45x, reflecting the debt-heavy capital structure. Positive AGILITY trial results for the Revello stent, a $19B U.S. manufacturing investment plan, consistent earnings beats, and ongoing deleveraging (total debt down from $21.59B in FY2024 to $19.18B in FY2025) provide fundamental support, but insider net selling of 15,409 shares over 24 months and a slightly negative smart money score of -0.001 as of 30 Jun temper enthusiasm.
What could go wrong
- Revenue decline acceleration. Q3 FY2026 revenue fell 9.5% YoY to $4.98B, following a 10.6% decline in Q2 FY2026 — a sharp reversal from FY2025's full-year growth of 8.2%.
- Valuation compression risk. At 57.76x trailing PE versus a peer median of 23.17x, any further earnings deterioration could trigger a multiple re-rating lower.
- Q2 net loss signals operational stress. Q2 FY2026 produced a net loss of $311M with EPS of -$1.11 and operating income of just $94M, raising questions about cost structure and one-time charges.
- Insider and institutional sentiment. Insiders net sold 15,409 shares over 24 months including CEO dispositions, and smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.001 as of 30 Jun.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 FY26 results · Q2 FY26 results · peer comparison · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on BDX; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 32.6% over twelve months, from $147.04 on 27 Oct 2025 to $195.03 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $200.42 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 2.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 12.2M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All BDX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $2.5B | 0.8% |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Franklin Resources | $1.1B | 0.2% |
| Wellington Management Group | $962.2M | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $631.0M | 0.1% |
105 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 112 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 16 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BDX
Orin answers questions about BDX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 51.5× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 29.5×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 51.5×above usual | 29.5× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 2.88×above usual | 2.72× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.2×near usual | 15.5× | — |
| P/B | 1.1×below usual | 2.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $188 (from $165 to $210) — 3% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$188
$165 – $210 · −3% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 51.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 44.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDXBecton, Dickinson and Company | $58B | 51.5× | 15.2× | 47.0% | 5.7% | 4% |
| ABTAbbott Laboratories | $178B | 38.2× | 21.2× | 57.1% | 9.7% | 9% |
| BAXBaxter International Inc. | $13B | lost money | 27.2× | 30.1% | −9.3% | −17% |
| MDTMedtronic plc | $120B | 23.0× | 14.4× | 66.7% | 13.9% | 11% |
| SOLVSolventum Corporation | $15B | 98.0× | 24.0× | 54.3% | 1.9% | 3% |
| WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | $28B | 50.6× | 32.1× | 36.8% | 17.0% | 19% |
- BAX: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 51.5× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now51.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $691 a share — 254% above the $195.16 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $691 | 254% above $195.16 |
| Levered | $515 | 164% above $195.16 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.