Becton, Dickinson and Company BDX
BDX's turnaround is genuine but the stock has outrun the fundamentals. FY2025 revenue grew 8.2% to $21.8B and total debt fell from $21.59B to $19.18B, yet at $187.60 the shares trade at 56.5x earnings — a 78.1% premium to the peer median of 31.7x — with RSI at 75.4 signaling overbought conditions.
FY2025 EPS still declined to $5.83 and FCF fell to $2.67B from $3.07B, while a GuruFocus DCF pegs intrinsic value at $141 versus the current price; the operational improvement is real but already priced in at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Overbought reversal. RSI at 75.4 with the stock trading well above its 50-day MA of $159.81 leaves BDX vulnerable to a mean-reversion pullback.
- Earnings stagnation. FY2025 EPS of $5.83 declined 0.5% YoY and net margin compressed to 7.68% from 8.45%; if margins don't recover, the 56.5x P/E premium becomes increasingly difficult to justify.
- FCF deterioration. Free cash flow fell to $2.67B in FY2025 from $3.07B in FY2024 despite 8.2% revenue growth, reducing financial flexibility for further debt reduction.
- Insider selling at highs. CEO Polen exercised SARs and sold 39,126 shares at $185 on 2026-08-13 while EVP Goette sold 2,438 shares at $180.84 on 2026-08-11, suggesting insiders view the current price as attractive for monetizing equity awards.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2024 and FY2025 · peer_relative · technicals as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on BDX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All BDX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/ | $2.5B | 0.8% of fund |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
102 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 110 Form 4 filings, net $18.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BDX
Orin answers questions about BDX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 55.0× | 28.1× | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.0× | 15.5× | — |
| P/S | 2.41× | 2.72× | — |
| P/B | 2.1× | 2.1× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+4.83σ from its own mean).
6.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$187
$159 – $210 · +2% against today's price
- 16 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDXBecton, Dickinson and Company | $50B | 55.0× | 17.0× | 46.1% | 4.5% | 4% |
| AAgilent Technologies, Inc. | $47B | 32.5× | 24.8× | 53.7% | 19.5% | 20% |
| CAHCardinal Health, Inc. | $52B | 30.4× | 16.4× | 3.8% | 0.7% | -60% |
| EWEdwards Lifesciences Corporation | $50B | 49.9× | 31.0× | 78.0% | 15.4% | 10% |
| IDXXIDEXX Laboratories, Inc. | $41B | 36.7× | 26.0× | 62.4% | 25.0% | 72% |
| IQVIQVIA Holdings Inc. | $44B | 32.9× | 16.6× | 26.2% | 8.1% | 22% |
| RMDResMed Inc. | $32B | 21.3× | 14.7× | 61.2% | 26.9% | 24% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 68.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $1154 | $150.26 · +668% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $870 | $150.26 · +479% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.